The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
874	11631	183177	6.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.156x) of Dune 2 $10.75M

(0.275x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $10.59M

Comps AVG: $10.67M

 

Should still be good for $11M+ Thursday so $14M+ previews. Pace has dropped off a bit, could be due to the holiday

FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
893	13666	187104	7.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2035

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.191x) of Dune 2 $11.07M

(0.274x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $10.55M

Comps AVG: $10.81M

 

Pretty good jump today. Good sign for walkups tomorrow

[filmlover]

The only time I ever saw a trailer for The Front Room was when it was an A24 attachment before MaXXXine. Seems like a complete dump job if you ask me.

[lorddemaxus]

Guessing the only reason A24 bought that is cuz it’s made by Robert Eggers brothers lol

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, CheeseWizard said:

I guess I can see that. Honestly after the whole shitshow with The Flash last year, I feel a bit weird about Warner Bros. Like after the whole “greatest movie ever” campaign they did for the Flash, I wouldn’t put it past them to artificially inflate tickets or seats in some attempt to get people to think it’s the “new big thing” and thus semi artificially drive up people going to see it. 
 

 I have this gut feeling Beetlejuice Squared might end up doing less than current projections, though that’s purely cus of what happened with the Flash, and cus both movies share Micheal Keaton as it’s big hook. Ain’t no basis in this apart from vibes alone though. 
 

Hell I wouldn’t be shocked if Paramount is doing with Transformers One what Warner did with Flash. Ain’t no fuckin way a transformers movie is actually good. 

I think Warners will save that kind of tactic for Joker 2, which stock has gone down with the lackluster reviews. Joker 2 is a much more important film for them.

[Shawn Robbins]

In talking with a lot of colleagues and friends this week, there is clearly a series of ambiguities in play with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

 

Whether it's a lack of direct calendar comps, concern over frontloading by nostalgic audiences, the Ortega equation, the back-to-school season and will-people-under-35-show-up factors, there are a lot of strong arguments. It reminds me of Top Gun: Maverick in some ways.

 

Should be a fun weekend, but possibly an even more fun few weeks if it does end up backloaded in any way. I can't shake the feeling this is the family-friendly-ish Halloween movie event pop culture has been building toward for a generation-plus.

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 50 Tickets

Theater 2: 53 Tickets

 

Alien: Romulus: $14.55M

AQP:DO: $12.29M

The Nun II: $9.98M

Evil Dead Rise: $4.68M

Halloween Ends: $12.09M

 

Honestly, not the best bump. Maybe it's an immediate LD effect. Anyway, down to $12M+

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 102 Tickets

Theater 2: 57 Tickets

 

Alien: Romulus: $63.51M

AQP:DO: $41.00M

The Nun II: $43.01M

Evil Dead Rise: $40.25M

Halloween Ends: $15.56M

 

Don't wanna get TOO ahead of ourselves just yet, but I'll follow the comps and say $40M+

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 66 Tickets

Theater 2: 77 Tickets

 

Alien: Romulus: $13.47M

AQP:DO: $11.05M

The Nun II: $9.85M

Evil Dead Rise: $5.84M

Halloween Ends: $10.88M

 

Comps still look to be steadily dropping. $11M+

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 130 Tickets

Theater 2: 93 Tickets

 

Alien: Romulus: $61.50M

AQP:DO: $38.97M

The Nun II: $41.33M

Evil Dead Rise: $25.74M

Halloween Ends: $17.58M

 

Most comps dropping again. Will go for $30M-$35M+

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-2)

 

32 showtimes/546 tix sold (+95)

 

1.29x AQP Day One (T-2) [8.77m]
Missed Alien: Romulus (T-2) 
1.05x Inside Out 2 (T-2) [13.65m]

 

wide range of comps, today was good, tomorrow it should probably sell a little more than today: ~110 tickets

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-1)

 

32 showtimes/675 tix sold (+129)

 

1.33x AQP Day One (T-1) [9.04m]
1.79x Alien: Romulus (T-2) [11.64m]
1.00x Inside Out 2 (T-1) [13.0m]

 

better day pace wise than yesterday (I probably overestimated the EA effect: none of the theaters I track have PLF but they are in the vicinity of ones that do). Not sure how tomorrow will go. Minimum tickets sold that would be acceptable (i.e. basically guaranteeing 10m + Thurs) is 250 tickets, but I’m expecting anywhere between 265-280.

 

for comparison, the final day of IO2 sold 304, AQP did 196. If it sells IO2 levels then 12m+ would be more likely than not.

[Flip]

On 8/28/2024 at 11:24 PM, Flip said:

Transformers One Day 2 (T-21)

 

11 showtimes/44 tix sold (+1)

 

.36x A Quiet Place Day One (T-21) [2.45m]

.44x Beetlejuice 2 Day Three [????]

 

don’t expect to see much growth for the next 10 days

Transformers One (T-15) 6 days of sales

 

11 showtimes/46 tix sold (+2)

 

.31x A Quiet Place Day One (T-15) [2.11m]

.36x Inside Out 2  (T-15) [4.68m]

 

IO2 underindexed, AQP over indexed. Based on that (and barring any fluctuations, Transformers is probably heading for a preview value between 3.5-4 (sales should pick up after the EA is done next weekend) 

Edited September 6 by Flip

[misterpepp]

Megalopolis early access goes on sale tomorrow. General sales probably not until a later date.

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-3) 3 days of sales

 

42 showtimes/664 tix sold (+254)

 

Missed Alien: Romulus Friday (T-3) 

1.47x Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-3) [???]

.70x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-3) [35.39m]

Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-2) 

 

42 showtimes/831 tix sold (+167)

 

2.43x Alien: Romulus Friday (T-2) [28.14m]

1.52x Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-2) [???]

.67x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-2) [33.87m]

 

Friday is much stronger than previews, both in pace and raw numbers. I think it should end up around 30m. Tomorrow should sell anywhere between 430-460 tickets for Friday.
 

The weekend could go something like 3/12/30/39/31 for $115m

[Relevation]

 

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

09/05/24

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice - 316 tickets sold

The Front Room - 3 tickets sold ._. (not worth analyzing lmao, $84K comp against Maxxxine)

COMPS & ANALYSIS

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

0.22x of Deadpool & Wolverine ($8.61M)

0.87x of Dune: Part Two ($8.03M)

1.05x of Inside Out 2 ($13.60M)

1.17x of It Ends With Us ($8.22M)

1.94x of Alien: Romulus ($12.60M)

2.59x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($12.17M)

2.63x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($9.22M)

AVERAGE: $10.35M

Well admittedly not as good as I would've liked for a potential $140M weekend, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice still ran up the score mighty impressive in my market. 3rd biggest THU seller of the year and more than Inside Out 2 is very strong, and I expect it to play closest to Ghostbusters in walkups and region skew, which would be good for BJ. Expecting something around $11.5-12.5M THU (no EA) and a $105-115M OW. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

Something interesting I noticed about Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is that for the most part, most of the seats sold seems to be around 6:30 PM. There’s sometimes a sold out showing at 8:00 PM or 5:30 PM but it usually has the most tickets at 6:30 PM, and it is uniform across Thurs-Sun. That’s interesting to me because it’s very weak in the morning showings and surprisingly weak in the late evening. But prime 6:30 seems to be its strongest. 

[Rorschach]

12 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 368/3,668 (10% sold) [+51]

4 IMAX showings: 48/1,552

3 XD showings: 93/714

13 2D showings: 227/1,402

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $23.7M

Twisters: $26.1M

Alien: $16.7M

Avg: $22.2M

 

Friday: 598/5,370 (11.1% sold) [+112]

5 IMAX showings: 65/1,940

5 XD showings: 189/1,190

20 2D showings: 344/2,240

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $59.1M

Twisters: $53M

Alien: $54.1M

Avg: $55.4M

 

Thurs + Fri: 966/9,038 (8.9% sold) [+163]

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $86M

Twisters: $79M

Alien: $64.5M

Avg: $76.5M

 

 

Oops, forgot to post this last night. My bad.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 433/3,668 (11.8% sold) [+65]

4 IMAX showings: 55/1,552

3 XD showings: 112/714

13 2D showings: 266/1,402

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $19.1M

Twisters: $19.4M

Alien: $14.1M

Avg: $17.5M

 

Friday: 759/5,370 (14.1% sold) [+161]

5 IMAX showings: 76/1,940

5 XD showings: 246/1,190

20 2D showings: 437/2,240

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $48.8M

Twisters: $44.8M

Alien: $50.5M

Avg: $48M

 

Thurs + Fri: 1,192/9,038 (13.2% sold) [+226]

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $70.1M

Twisters: $63.6M

Alien: $57.8M

Avg: $63.8M

[charlie Jatinder]

44 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Something interesting I noticed about Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is that for the most part, most of the seats sold seems to be around 6:30 PM. There’s sometimes a sold out showing at 8:00 PM or 5:30 PM but it usually has the most tickets at 6:30 PM, and it is uniform across Thurs-Sun. That’s interesting to me because it’s very weak in the morning showings and surprisingly weak in the late evening. But prime 6:30 seems to be its strongest. 

That's very normal pre-sales trend. 5-8PM has best sales.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 218

New Sales: 30

Growth: 16%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 5.7

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 208

New sales: 47

Growth: 29%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 17/11

Early Evening: 129/13

Late Evening: 72/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 12/9

Dolby: 72/9

VIP: 113/11

IMAX: 9/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.574x TFG for $8.4M

1.772x Twisters for $14.2M

2.202x GB:FE for $10.3M

0.439x GxK for $4.4M

 

Average: $9.3M

 

Comps - previews

3.200x Fall Guy for $2.6M

0.972x Twisters for $2.6M

 

Average: $2.6M

 

I'm really not sure what to make of the numbers. It's slipping against all comps, but this is still a Thursday of the first week of school. It's not going to match the walk ups of Twisters. It's also struggling against GxK, but I forgot that was Easter weekend as well, so that had an advantage.

 

Looking at Friday sales points to this being big over the overall weekend though.

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Previews

Total Sales: 270

New Sales: 52

Growth: 24%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 7.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 25/11

Early Evening: 165/13

Late Evening: 80/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 19/9

Dolby: 96/9

VIP: 132/11

IMAX: 11/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.418x TFG for $8.0M

1.179x Twisters for $9.4M

1.824x GB:FE for $8.6M

0.408x GxK for $4.1M

 

Average: $7.5M

 

Growth rates remain unimpressive, with some comps fully imploding here at the end.

 

There's so many unique factors going on here that it's going to be the larger chain wide samples that provides the best outlook.

 

Friday sales look strong, so I'm guessing that it still performs well over the weekend, but if just looking through my local lens, Thursday previews will struggle to hit double digits on true Thursday.

 

[CheeseWizard]

6 hours ago, Flip said:

Transformers One Day 2 (T-15) 6 days of sales

 

11 showtimes/46 tix sold (+2)

 

.31x A Quiet Place Day One (T-15) [2.11m]

.36x Inside Out 2  (T-15) [4.68m]

 

IO2 underindexed, AQP over indexed. Based on that (and barring any fluctuations, Transformers is probably heading for a preview value between 3.5-4 (sales should pick up after the EA is done next weekend) 

Isn’t that like, strangely okay for a September animated movie?

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, Shawn Robbins said:

In talking with a lot of colleagues and friends this week, there is clearly a series of ambiguities in play with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

 

Whether it's a lack of direct calendar comps, concern over frontloading by nostalgic audiences, the Ortega equation, the back-to-school season and will-people-under-35-show-up factors, there are a lot of strong arguments. It reminds me of Top Gun: Maverick in some ways.

 

Should be a fun weekend, but possibly an even more fun few weeks if it does end up backloaded in any way. I can't shake the feeling this is the family-friendly-ish Halloween movie event pop culture has been building toward for a generation-plus.

 

You forgot Patrick Mahomes kicking off the NFL season tonight and Jalen Hurts doing it tomorrow night.

This movie may have a Marvel Saturday of old b/c there's no opening week NFL football on Saturday...or it may not...

[AniNate]

57 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Isn’t that like, strangely okay for a September animated movie?

More or less in line with what its tracking has been. Solid for a September release

[AniNate]

Wild Robot now on sale

[CheeseWizard]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

More or less in line with what its tracking has been. Solid for a September release

Damn. If that’s the case it might actually end up being the first transformers movie to make back its budget in a decade (without toy sales as a crutch)
 

52 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Wild Robot now on sale

After the poor reception of Kung Fu Panda 4, I wonder if there might be fewer pre-sales and more walkups