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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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15 minutes ago, excel1 said:

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Joker acceleraation incoming!

funny enough pre orders opened way before in my country, and my city has only two major theaters in which those tickets werent selling that much but now theyre selling and a lot faster, guess people were really waiting closer to the release 

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Is anyone else seeing unusual sales for Wild Robot?

 

Lemme tell you how unusual.

In my tracking, it has sold 550+ tix for Friday which would have been amazing, close to KFP4. BUT...

nearly 300+ of those are either random one-show sales and rest show empty at that cinema or sales at less popular cinema while the generally popular cinema has way fewer sales.

 

e.g. this show has random 30+ sales in front rows, which generally wont get sold unless film is selling really well. other shows are at empty.
Screenshot-2024-09-20-at-06-20-35.png

 

or this, nearly 150 sales at one morning show of not so popular cinema, while rest of shows at same cinema have sold ZERO tix.

Screenshot-2024-09-20-at-06-22-59.png

 

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  • Founder / Operator

Some news to share very soon (shameless teaser alert!).

 

But that said, definitely agree with some of the thoughts on Substance for this weekend.

 

Transformers looks like mid 30s as we went with in the BOT weekend forecast but it's tough to gauge what kind of family walk-ups may or may not happen for a nostalgic, male-driven IP. I can't help but think Wild Robot is a growing factor for some casual families despite it being more of a slow-burn potentially. Expecting big legs on that one.

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12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is anyone else seeing unusual sales for Wild Robot?

 

Lemme tell you how unusual.

In my tracking, it has sold 550+ tix for Friday which would have been amazing, close to KFP4. BUT...

nearly 300+ of those are either random one-show sales and rest show empty at that cinema or sales at less popular cinema while the generally popular cinema has way fewer sales.

 

e.g. this show has random 30+ sales in front rows, which generally wont get sold unless film is selling really well. other shows are at empty.
Screenshot-2024-09-20-at-06-20-35.png

 

or this, nearly 150 sales at one morning show of not so popular cinema, while rest of shows at same cinema have sold ZERO tix.

Screenshot-2024-09-20-at-06-22-59.png

 

Maybe school teachers are on field trips with students?

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19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is anyone else seeing unusual sales for Wild Robot?

 

Lemme tell you how unusual.

In my tracking, it has sold 550+ tix for Friday which would have been amazing, close to KFP4. BUT...

nearly 300+ of those are either random one-show sales and rest show empty at that cinema or sales at less popular cinema while the generally popular cinema has way fewer sales.

 

e.g. this show has random 30+ sales in front rows, which generally wont get sold unless film is selling really well. other shows are at empty.
Screenshot-2024-09-20-at-06-20-35.png

 

or this, nearly 150 sales at one morning show of not so popular cinema, while rest of shows at same cinema have sold ZERO tix.

Screenshot-2024-09-20-at-06-22-59.png

 

These look too uneven to be blocked seats, very bizzare sales pattern evidently 

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Just want to (very cautiously) say

 

I’m not worried about TF1 having a somewhat tepid Thursday finish, in September, with EA shows already having burned off some fan demand. Expect it to IM well and easily cross $30M

 

But also, think the Wild Robot expectations need to be turned down a notch (or 3). There are some very good reasons why this film would be seeing advance sales on a much higher level that wouldn’t necessarily translate to family walk-ups or a strong IM in the way for example KFP4 did 

 

Spoiler

Guess we’ll find out soon enough if I’m actually “back” or not…

 

Edited by M37
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3 minutes ago, M37 said:

There are some very good reasons why this film would be seeing advance sales on a much higher level that wouldn’t necessarily translate to family walk-ups or a strong IM in the way for example KFP4 did 

 

Which are? I mean yes the possible school group thing but even that doesn't fully explain things like its evening Thursday preview sales at Disney Springs basically matching TFOne's in total until today 

 

Even KFP4 is a relatively modest example of a strong internal multiplier. Don't think there's any reason to believe TWR would be worse tbh. Movies like Bad Guys and Abominable had even better internal mults.

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20 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just want to (very cautiously) say

 

I’m not worried about TF1 having a somewhat tepid Thursday finish, in September, with EA shows already having burned off some fan demand. Expect it to IM well and easily cross $30M

 

But also, think the Wild Robot expectations need to be turned down a notch (or 3). There are some very good reasons why this film would be seeing advance sales on a much higher level that wouldn’t necessarily translate to family walk-ups or a strong IM in the way for example KFP4 did 

 

  Hide contents

Guess we’ll find out soon enough if I’m actually “back” or not…

 

You on June 7th 2024

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25 minutes ago, M37 said:

But also, think the Wild Robot expectations need to be turned down a notch (or 3). There are some very good reasons why this film would be seeing advance sales on a much higher level that wouldn’t necessarily translate to family walk-ups or a strong IM in the way for example KFP4 did

Fail Charlie Brown GIF by Peanuts

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I will say something that does make me unsure about TWR is its frankly anemic sales in my region so far compared to IF and Garfield in May. Given the more positive looking tracking elsewhere though I am inclined to believe it's just gonna be more late presale/walkup driven here. Guessing they probably just aren't used to buying tickets in advance so much for animated movies that come out during the school season.

 

Cinemark also held off on giving it XD for my theaters until today, so if there is PLF preference that might've been a factor too. Certainly looks like there is at Disney Springs.

 

 

Edited by AniNate
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