The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Ryan C]

Smile 2

 

T-16

 

Thursday: 429 Seats Sold (From 13 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 12:15AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I've long thought that this sequel will be a big breakout, so I hope this one picks up some steam in the next few weeks. As of now though, this isn't looking too bad for the first day of pre-sales. I would expect this one to be a lot more walk-up heavy as I don't think the fanbase for the first Smile would be the one to buy tickets as soon as they go on sale. 

 

We'll see, but I have confidence that this is going to be a solid hit. 

[iEnri]

Some trackers saying the pace is not bad at all, others saying it is free failing. Which is true? lol guess we will see it soon

Edited 8 hours ago by iEnri

[crazymoviekid]

Joker II

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 41 Tickets

Theater 2: 53 Tickets

 

BB: $11.24M

Alien: Romulus: $17.97M

Dune 2: $14.24M

Aquaman 2: $11.75M

The Marvels: $4.22M

John Wick 4: $8.45M

 

Idk man. Sales by me are fine. Only way this is going down is if it plays like an MCU title. $9M+ for now

[vale9001]

You all still act like the movie has a 20 on metacritic and a 25% on RT with all this reviews discussion. When actually has a 64% on RT. 

 

Something about this movie just didn't click with the audience reviews or not. Reviews don't kill the hype from 100m+ to 50m especially when the movie ...is not even Rotten (!!!!!).

Sorry but doesn't make any sense. When you have the hype you have the hype, then maybe stellar reviews can even push a Little bit more but if you have Barbie hype if It gets 64% on RT and not 80% maybe you make 150M instead of 160m (and i'm not even sure about that) but if the hype is there is there. A blockbuster audience is not made by geeks with the RT app. Please 😭 

[AniNate]

20 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

You all still act like the movie has a 20 on metacritic and a 25% on RT with all this reviews discussion. When actually has a 64% on RT. 

 

Something about this movie just didn't click with the audience reviews or not. Reviews don't kill the hype from 100m+ to 50m especially when the movie ...is not even Rotten (!!!!!).

Sorry but doesn't make any sense. When you have the hype you have the hype, then maybe stellar reviews can even push a Little bit more but if you have Barbie hype if It gets 64% on RT and not 80% maybe you make 150M instead of 160m (and i'm not even sure about that) but if the hype is there is there. A blockbuster audience is not made by geeks with the RT app. Please 😭 

 

I said it before but indifference can be much more of a killer than raging negativity towards a movie. We've seen that with quite a few CBMs before including some of the more recent comps like Flash and Marvels. "It's ok" is not the kind of ringing endorsement that gets most people to shell out $10 to see movies in theaters if they'd just as likely spend the weekend watching sports.

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

You all still act like the movie has a 20 on metacritic and a 25% on RT with all this reviews discussion. When actually has a 64% on RT. 

 

Something about this movie just didn't click with the audience reviews or not. Reviews don't kill the hype from 100m+ to 50m especially when the movie ...is not even Rotten (!!!!!).

Sorry but doesn't make any sense. When you have the hype you have the hype, then maybe stellar reviews can even push a Little bit more but if you have Barbie hype if It gets 64% on RT and not 80% maybe you make 150M instead of 160m (and i'm not even sure about that) but if the hype is there is there. A blockbuster audience is not made by geeks with the RT app. Please 😭 

Joker was a cultural phenomenon, right place at right time at right moment.

 

But don't think many people wanted its sequel.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 231

New Sales : 24

Growth: 12%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 26

Tickets per Showtime: 8.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 11/6

Early Evening: 171/11

Late Evening: 49/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 88/7

VIP: 86/7

IMAX: 53/6

Regular: 4/3

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

1.383x Beetlejuice² for $13.6M

0.750x GxK for $7.5M

0.285x Dune 2 for $2.9M

0.788x BB:RoD for $4.5M

1.909x Aquaman 2 for $8.6M

0.445x The Marvels for $2.9M

1.132x Alien Romulus for $7.4M

Average: $6.8M

 

Monday EA Sales (T-1)

Total:321

New sales: 40

Growth: 14%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius (note, 27 EA shows across MTC4 chain)

 

EA Comp

0.526x Dune 2 for $1.1M

1.500x Twisters for $4.1M

4.938x The Fall Guy for $4.0M

 

Average: $3.0M

 

Nothing too substantial today. No big movement either direction.

 

The EA shows remain difficult to read. 

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-3, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 281

New Sales : 50

Growth: 22%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 26

Tickets per Showtime: 10.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 14/6

Early Evening: 202/11

Late Evening: 65/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 112/7

VIP: 103/7

IMAX: 62/6

Regular: 4/3

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

1.495x Beetlejuice² for $14.5M

0.699x GxK for $7.0M

0.302x Dune 2 for $3?0M

0.870x BB:RoD for $5.0M

2.066x Aquaman 2 for $9.3M

0.492x The Marvels for $3.2M

1.156x Alien Romulus for $7.5M

Average: $7.1M

 

This had a pretty strong day. Gained a bit on comps. With comps though ranging all over the place, it's hard to say where it might land overall. 

[vafrow]

Smile 2, D1, T-17, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales : na

Growth: na

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Tickets per Showtime: 0.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Early Evening: 9/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 9/10

 

Comps 

1.125x ADQ:D1 for $7.7M

0.429x Alien Romulus for $2.8M

0.474x Furiosa for $1.7M

 

Average: $4.0M

 

Not a bad first day.

[stripe]

4 hours ago, vale9001 said:

You all still act like the movie has a 20 on metacritic and a 25% on RT with all this reviews discussion. When actually has a 64% on RT. 

 

Something about this movie just didn't click with the audience reviews or not. Reviews don't kill the hype from 100m+ to 50m especially when the movie ...is not even Rotten (!!!!!).

Sorry but doesn't make any sense. When you have the hype you have the hype, then maybe stellar reviews can even push a Little bit more but if you have Barbie hype if It gets 64% on RT and not 80% maybe you make 150M instead of 160m (and i'm not even sure about that) but if the hype is there is there. A blockbuster audience is not made by geeks with the RT app. Please 😭 

 

Reviews are not the problem, but they have not been the solution Joker 2 needed.
The presales are just proving that this sequel has not the GA hype/interest of the first.

[CheeseWizard]

Tbh the reviews might prove to be a problem later on. With most of them being woefully indifferent from critics or fans saying “it’s literally a worse DC project than Batman and Robin and its so bad it’ll give you conjunctivitis”, even if it ends up with some good preview numbers, word of mouth could poison the movie from having any semblance of good walkups, leading to a much lower overall opening weekend couldn’t it?

Edited 2 hours ago by CheeseWizard

[SpiderByte]

The first had a much stronger showing on the awards circuit before mainstream audiences/reviews saw it

[vafrow]

In terms of this thread getting referenced elsewhere, I was listening to Scott Mendelson and company's box office podcast. Basically, a collection of box office pundits and writers for various outlets.

 

I believe it was Ryan Scott from Slashfilm that was referencing this site. He mainly spoke on Shawn Robbins forecasts, and rightly holds it up as best in the business. But he referenced the "gang at BOT" that makes it fairly apparent that he's reading through the forecasts here.

 

It's not a problem nor a surprise, but listening to the podcast this morning, it jumped out. 

[filmlover]

Yeah, one of the things people tend to forget is that the first movie was more of an adult drama than a superhero movie, and the fact it had early awards buzz made it something of a novelty. Those who saw it for those reasons have zero incentive to return this time around.

 

Which still doesn't take away from the reality that it seems like we're increasingly looking at a miserable performance. Since sequels to adult dramas don't come around very often (and those that do tend to be book franchises that see diminished returns - see: the Tom Hanks Robert Langdon films or even the Fifty Shades franchise), this is looking at something similar to what tends to happen with comedy sequels, which often fail due to their predecessors being obviously conceived as one-and-dones.

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 9/30/2024 at 7:33 AM, Menor the Destroyer said:

Joker 2 MTC1

 

EA:

23187/52615, 177 shows

 

Thu:

46965/978602, 5049 shows

 

Fri:

33670/1008095, 5226 shows

 

Low numbers, similar to/under Marvels and The Flash at the same point. 

So this was in fact wrong as I suspected yesterday, and it's because these numbers are for Fri and Sat respectively instead of Thu and Fri 🤦‍♂️

 

Don't have an update for Thu but since I ran Fri and Sat I might as well post them. 

 

EA final: 25158/52615, 177 shows

 

Fri: 56515/1001236, 5284 shows

 

Sat: 39221/1028215, 5450 shows

 

Now this seems more in line with others instead of the really low Friday show count relative to Thu that was giving me pause. Still very bad numbers as Fri is still under Flash, but they at least make more sense. 

 

 

[Grand Cine]

15 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

So this was in fact wrong as I suspected yesterday, and it's because these numbers are for Fri and Sat respectively instead of Thu and Fri 🤦‍♂️

 

Don't have an update for Thu but since I ran Fri and Sat I might as well post them. 

 

EA final: 25158/52615, 177 shows

 

Fri: 56515/1001236, 5284 shows

 

Sat: 39221/1028215, 5450 shows

 

Now this seems more in line with others instead of the really low Friday show count relative to Thu that was giving me pause. Still very bad numbers as Fri is still under Flash, but they at least make more sense. 

 

 

 

 

The Marvels comp:

Friday - 56514/1121557 1047460.06 5830 shows +8857

 

Around 10% more for Joker 2 from this pace , so around 16-16,5M for True Friday at this point .