The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vale9001]

8 hours ago, ando said:

I wonder if the Gaga promo is helping Joker stay steady these last tracking days. She had a pretty buzzy performance on Jimmy Kimmel last night and talked about the film. 

 

 

whoever the perfomer is I think a performance on jimmy kimmel sells a song or an album, not a movie. 

[vafrow]

17 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

whoever the perfomer is I think a performance on jimmy kimmel sells a song or an album, not a movie. 

 

It can do both.

 

Die With a Smile seems to be getting a lot of radio play and already at a half billion Spotify plays.

 

This is the outcome you're hoping for when you sign on a pop star into a movie. It's not going to take the movie to billion dollar heights on it's own but it's driving awareness.

 

I was reflecting a bit, as it's funny to see the contrast from Lady Gaga right now to another early 2000s pop star in Katy Perry. The latter has put out an album that's an absolute critical and commercial failure. 

 

Lady Gaga has obviously better maintained her star power over the years with her transition to acting, but I think it's important to not take her impact here for granted. Getting a radio friendly hit from a movie isn't that frequent of an occurrence.

[Menor the Destroyer]

23 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Thu: 68441/706961, 3818 shows

 

Fri: 69246/1082989, 5849 shows +12731

 

Sat: 46823/1109076, 6071 shows +7602

 

No real change in the story. Probably a mid 50s to 60 opening. 

 

 

 

Thu: 81542/708612, 3832 shows +13101

 

Fri: 84923/1085399, 5851 shows +15677

 

Sat: 56621/1114573, 6083 shows +9798

 

No really major change from before, Fri pace improved slightly against Marvels. Sat sales are really poor, usually I don't read too much into Sat sales but the pace is really bad. 

 

Edited 13 hours ago by Menor the Destroyer

[Ezen Baklattan]

Has anyone seen anything for Sam and Colby? It’s a movie opening this week (seemingly exclusive to Cinemark) about two popular ghost hunters on YouTube. They added a ton of showtimes this weekend since a lot of the initial shows are just about sold out in the theaters I checked in Pittsburgh. Idk how wide it’s going but it’s worth seeing if it makes a splash this weekend.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

It can do both.

 

Die With a Smile seems to be getting a lot of radio play and already at a half billion Spotify plays.

 

This is the outcome you're hoping for when you sign on a pop star into a movie. It's not going to take the movie to billion dollar heights on it's own but it's driving awareness.

 

I was reflecting a bit, as it's funny to see the contrast from Lady Gaga right now to another early 2000s pop star in Katy Perry. The latter has put out an album that's an absolute critical and commercial failure. 

 

Lady Gaga has obviously better maintained her star power over the years with her transition to acting, but I think it's important to not take her impact here for granted. Getting a radio friendly hit from a movie isn't that frequent of an occurrence.

 

I agree with this sentiment in theory, but before the Kimmel appearance, Gaga was already attempting to focus more attention on J2  by releasing her surprise new "companion" album Harlequin last Friday, and that seems to be significantly underperforming. (Harlequin is separate from the Joker 2 soundtrack album.) 

 

Hits Daily Double's Tuesday album sales estimates for this week so far have Harlequin outside the Top 10 albums of the week and barely in the top 20 with just predicted 26,000 total activity units (the metric used to rank the Billboard 200 albums these days). That is lower than this week's sales activity of years-old albums by SZA, Zach Bryan and Morgan Wallen, all of which are sitting above Harlequin on the same chart. And for whatever the comparison is worth, Katy Perry's new album sold 48,000 units last week, though it was a more conventional pop album with heavy pre-release marketing. HDD does mention that physical sales from Gaga's website and her Kimmel appearance still have a chance to boost it, but still, that low an initial estimate for a Gaga album kind of floored me.

 

https://hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=342851&title=SMILE%2521-IT%25E2%2580%2599S-THE-TOP-20

 

Sorry, I'm not meaning to derail this thread, but Harlequin sales do seem like a caution sign alongside the road to the film's release.

Edited 12 hours ago by Jerri Blank-Diggler

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

It can do both.

 

Die With a Smile seems to be getting a lot of radio play and already at a half billion Spotify plays.

 

This is the outcome you're hoping for when you sign on a pop star into a movie. It's not going to take the movie to billion dollar heights on it's own but it's driving awareness.

 

I was reflecting a bit, as it's funny to see the contrast from Lady Gaga right now to another early 2000s pop star in Katy Perry. The latter has put out an album that's an absolute critical and commercial failure. 

 

Lady Gaga has obviously better maintained her star power over the years with her transition to acting, but I think it's important to not take her impact here for granted. Getting a radio friendly hit from a movie isn't that frequent of an occurrence.

 

Lady Gaga having right now a hit or not on radios doesn't change anything for joker.

 

As I said before i don't think music stars sell movies by being music stars. You don't put Michael Jackson on back to the future and it's a success cause thriller was everywhere on these years.

 

Prince, Elvis, Whitney, Eminem,  Gaga with a star is Born they just sold a particular movie about themselves or about being a popstar. They work if you build something on pair with their music brand and that's all. T.Swift did nothing for Cats cause it's not her music world. Beyoncé  nothing for that thriller movie She made. She would have sell a Star Is Born too. Fot T.swift if you build a movie about a character is popstar of her kind, like a singer songwriter writes her own songs can work cause you just use her brand that definitely works for her as music star. 

 

J. Lo works as actress when She makes romantic comedies and similar movies...cause She was able to create a very specifical brand also as actress for that genre and my mom likes her for that even if doesn't care about j.lo music. My mother sees her as an actress of romantic movies.

 

 

Edited 12 hours ago by vale9001

[M37]

On 10/2/2024 at 7:54 AM, vale9001 said:

how someone still see a 60M debut with a 7M preview? first movie made 96M from a 13.5 preview (around 7x multiplier). Why a sequel should make a lot better (almost 9x multiplier) to go from around 7M to 60M OW?

So IM hinges on one specific question: from where are we going to see the largest audience drop-off: from fans or casuals?

Typically when a CBM (Flash, Marvels) goes low, it’s due largely to becoming a fan (usually male) dominated audience, not drawing in casuals. So we see lower walk-up rates and IMs, usually weaker legs (see also Furiosa)

 

But for this movie specifically, that may not necessarily be the case. The decision to include Gaga as Harley, with a musical twist, may be turning off typical fans, while - along with the original breaking free of its CBM genre and having good WOM - could be keeping the more casuals intrigued 

 

tl;dr - I expect walk-ups to be decent, IM to be OK, not fully crash as we’ve seen with prior underperformers. But that possibility still does remain, especially with the warning light of lower Sat pre-sales 

[vafrow]

44 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

I agree with this sentiment in theory, but before the Kimmel appearance, Gaga was already attempting to focus more attention on J2  by releasing her surprise new "companion" album Harlequin last Friday, and that seems to be significantly underperforming. (Harlequin is separate from the Joker 2 soundtrack album.) 

 

Hits Daily Double's Tuesday album sales estimates for this week so far have Harlequin outside the Top 10 albums of the week and barely in the top 20 with just predicted 26,000 total activity units (the metric used to rank the Billboard 200 albums these days). That is lower than this week's sales activity of years-old albums by SZA, Zach Bryan and Morgan Wallen, all of which are sitting above Harlequin on the same chart. And for whatever the comparison is worth, Katy Perry's new album sold 48,000 units last week, though it was a more conventional pop album with heavy pre-release marketing. HDD does mention that physical sales from Gaga's website and her Kimmel appearance still have a chance to boost it, but still, that low an initial estimate for a Gaga album kind of floored me.

 

https://hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=342851&title=SMILE%2521-IT%25E2%2580%2599S-THE-TOP-20

 

Sorry, I'm not meaning to derail this thread, but Harlequin sales do seem like a caution sign alongside the road to the film's release.

 

That's interesting context. Honestly, my focus has just been that I hear that Die With a Smile song quite a bit (the kids listen to top 40 stations when we're in the car) and I looked up it's metrics.

 

It seems like there's differing opinions on the impact of soundtrack success for a film though, and probably not worth detailing this thread.

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Thu: 81542/708612, 3832 shows +13101

 

Fri: 84923/1085399, 5851 shows +15677

 

Sat: 56621/1114573, 6083 shows +9798

 

No really major change from before, Fri pace improved slightly against Marvels. Sat sales are really poor, usually I don't read too much into Sat sales but the pace is really bad. 

 

Comparaison The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 92900/783347 1778477.62 4256 shows +11737

Friday - 81204/1266783 1465765.32 6914 shows +12894

 

Around 6M for True previews , around 7M with EA. I stay with 16,5M True Friday but maybe 17M . I don't expect jump for Sat , or a very little , just 5%-10% . With 30% drop for Sun, i expect Low 50's-Mid 50's max.

[Shawn Robbins]

 

[Flopped]

22 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

 

Tragic. Do you know how many screens Substance will be on this weekend? 

[filmpalace]

Terrifier 3 T-7

 

Tickets sold: 144

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 3

 

This is selling really well at the theaters I’m tracking. Only 3 showtimes so far, but they are all almost sold out. I’ll be able to put comps starting tomorrow.

[charlie Jatinder]

Imagine there was no tracking thread. Joker 2 probably still be tracking at $100M weekend 

Edited 8 hours ago by charlie Jatinder

[CheeseWizard]

Weird question, but is there a chance the utterly toxic WOM joker is getting could actually make it see an increase in tickets? 
Like “omg it’s so bad that we gotta see it” type energy?

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, CheeseWizard said:

Weird question, but is there a chance the utterly toxic WOM joker is getting could actually make it see an increase in tickets? 
Like “omg it’s so bad that we gotta see it” type energy?

[JonathanMB]

56 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Weird question, but is there a chance the utterly toxic WOM joker is getting could actually make it see an increase in tickets? 
Like “omg it’s so bad that we gotta see it” type energy?

 

Madame Web didn't see any kind of bump from that hype so I'm gonna guess no.

[TheFlatLannister]

17 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
734	8562	152377	5.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1347

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.627x) of Beetlejuice $6.14M

(0.171x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.59M

Comps AVG: $6.37M

 

Well, at least it's not imploding. Would guess $6.5M previews + $1M Monday EA 

Will have a more solid prediction tomorrow 

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
734	10047	152377	6.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1485

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(0.633x) of Beetlejuice $6.20M

(1.009x) of Alien $6.56M

(0.169x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.53M

Comps AVG: $6.43M

 

No strong late push. Officially going with $6.5M Thursday, so likely reported as $7.5M with Monday Fan event 

Edited 7 hours ago by TheFlatLannister

[HummingLemon496]

(6.7^2) + 1

[PlatnumRoyce]

[consolidating comments]

Edited 6 hours ago by PlatnumRoyce

[Ryan C]

14 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Joker: Folie à Deux

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 7,264 Seats Sold (12% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 11:05PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Another decent 10%+ increase from yesterday. Though nothing major, this does bode well for tomorrow (which I'll track just before the first preview screenings start). I'm not expecting any huge bump, but I would love to be surprised. 

 

Also, I have noticed that pre-sales are selling slightly better on Friday. That's probably due to this releasing in the Fall, but it at least makes the chances of this hitting $50M or $55M more likely. In that case, the Thursday-to-Sunday multiplier (though I'm sure will be highly frontloaded) shouldn't be worse than The Flash's Thursday-to-Sunday multipler last summer (5.675x)

 

Just for comparison, here's the other comic-book movies released during October and their Thursday-Sunday multipliers. 

 

Venom: $10M x 8.025 (IM) = $80.255M

Joker: $13.3M x 7.233 (IM) = $96.202M

Venom: Let There Be Carnage: $11.6M x 7.761 (IM) = $90.033M

Black Adam: $7.6M x 8.817 (IM) = $67.004M

 

Unfortunately, all of these films either had better reviews (Joker), had more family appeal (Black Adam), or much more walk-up business than expected (Venom 1 and 2). It would be pretty lucky for Joker: Folie à Deux to reach even the first film's 7.233x Thursday-to-Sunday multipler

 

Maybe we'll know more tomorrow, but I'll just say that if at least this scores $7M in Thursday previews (with no EA showings boosting numbers), a weekend over $50M (and with stronger Friday sales) will most likely occur. Anything less, then we're gonna be in The Marvels territory. 

 

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. 

 

Joker: Folie à Deux

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 8,275 Seats Sold (13.9% Increase From Last Time) 

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 3:15PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Ok, I think walk-ups for the rest of today will be fine. Once again, this ended up having a stronger bump from last night than I expected. Over 1,000 seats (1,011 to be exact) were sold between when I tracked last night and just as soon as the first preview showings started. 

 

Just to throw out my prediction, I'd go with a Thursday Preview number of $7M-$7.5M ($8M-$8.5M including Fan Event showings) and a overall final weekend number of between $50M-$55M. Nothing special as that's what tracking is projecting the film will be, but that sounds about right and I don't want to go overboard/be more disappointed at what's already looking like to be a pretty disappointing opening. 

 

Still, I hope for the best that this movie can do just a bit better (I'll be legitmately happy if it can get to $60M) than these current projections and doesn't venture into The Marvels territory. 

 

I'll be waiting until the weekend is officially over to see how this did. In the meantime, I'll happily stay away from the insufferable/tiring discourse that's gonna unfurl once we start to see domestic numbers for this movie.