The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

Wicked MiniTC2 T-43 Days

 

EA - 484/7755 (28 showings)
Previews - 826/45487 (206 showings)

 

Comps

Beetlejuice 2 first day of sales - $27.5M

Barbie first day of sales - $23-25M adj comp 

 

The Little Mermaid first day of sales - $19M

Indy 5 first day of sales - $18M

 

15x Gladiator 2 T-43 days

 

Edited 19 hours ago by charlie Jatinder

[SnokesLegs]

11 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

Looks like a mini Barbenheimer , with the same thing , the movie which appeal to younger and women people had stronger presales. Good thing than presales is already strong with 6 Weeks to go . Clearly already more marketing for the trio than Smile 2 and Venom 3. There is no more than Moana 2 and the party can begin.

Still not seeing it. This isn’t the same thing at all, you’ll have a much harder time convincing males who are interested in Gladiator to go to a female-centred musical as part of a double bill, whereas Barbenheimer succeeded as a gimmick because there was more of an audience crossover of people who were interested in both. A well reviewed biopic followed by a well reviewed comedy is a much easier double bill to sell than a legacy sequel followed by a musical.

[vale9001]

Yeah some people didn't get why barbenheimer really worked. 2 acclaimed directors with 2 Summer blockbusters with oscar buzz. Someone forgot all the buzz about Barbie was "what It's gonna be exactly?" especially after that teaser with an homage and parody of 2001. 

Barbie looked like something appealing to cinephiles too, something possibily in the likes of Dreamworks animated movies ala Shrek or even mel brooks. A smart comedy.

 

The average gladiator viewer already knows what Wicked It's gonna be.

Barbenheimer wasn't just something has a poster with a predominance of black and something a poster with a predominance of pink. 

 

 

 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

Gladiator II, D1, T-44, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews 

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Tickets per Showtime: 1.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/2

Early Evening: 19/5

Late Evening: 0/3

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 2/6

IMAX: 17/4

 

Comps

4.750x KOTPOTA for $23.8M

0.543x Joker 2 for $3.4M

3.800x BB:RoD for $22.3M

 

Average: $16.5M

 

Comps should be taken with a huge grain of salt. As indicated yesterday, this is falling between the heavy front loaded properties and second tier. Throw in hte long sales time and it gets wonkier.

 

The plf allocation remains interesting. Only IMAX. Nothing else. Not even VIP theatres, when there's plenty of those to gp around in my region.

 

Overall though, strong sales day one a month and a half out remains impressive.

 

Gladiator II, D2, T-43, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews 

 

Total Sales: 21

New Sales: 2

Growth: 11%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Tickets per Showtime: 2.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/2

Early Evening: 19/5

Late Evening: 2/3

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 4/6

IMAX: 17/4

 

Comps

0.176x Dune 2 for $1.8M

1.615x KOTPOTA for $8.1M

0.467x Joker 2 for $2.9M

1.235x BB:RoD for $7.3M

 

Average: $5.0M

 

Not much of a day 2. I'll run comps for a few more days as is, but will probably not have anything once I switch to T minus for a while.

 

[filmpalace]

Wicked  T-42

 

Tickets sold: 112

Theaters: 1

Showtimes: 8

 

Sold twice as much as Gladiator’s first day, despite not having showtimes up at the second theater I track. Don’t have much else to add to what has already been said. Just an amazing first day.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

Terrifier 3, T-3 , Western GTA southern Ontario, Friday opening 

 

Ticket sales: 75

 

No comps, as I generally don't track Friday openings directly, and this is a unique case altogether.

 

Very strong sales that people were clearly waiting to open.

 

For these two locations, first day is comparable to FNAF, but that wss Thursday previews versus this, and also at T-8, versus T-3.

 

Terrifier 3, T-3 , Western GTA southern Ontario, Friday opening 

 

Ticket sales: 172

New sales: 97

Growth: 129%

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 6

 

Still selling well.

 

 

 

 

[vafrow]

Wicked, D1, T-43, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 29

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 11

Tickets per Showtime: 2.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 8/3

Early Evening: 13/5

Late Evening: 8/3

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/1

Regular 3D: 0/2

Dolby: 8/2

Dolby 3D: 21/6

 

Comps

14.500x Beetlejuice 2 for $142.1M

14.500x Twisters for 155.2M

14.500x Inside Out 2 for $188.5M

0.644x Joker 2 for $4.1M

 

Average: not relevant at this stage 

 

EA sales

Total sales: 77

Theatres: 3

Showtimes: 3

Formats: Dolby 3D

 

1.833x Joker 2 for $1.3M

7.700x Beetlejuice 2 for $23.9M

38.500x Twisters for $104M

0.258x Dune 2 for $0.5M

 

Average: Also not relevant at this stage.

 

So, comps aren't helping much. It's in between tiers, and my market really is feast or famine. We'll know more in time, but I'm reluctant to get too predict too much.

 

One thing I keep going back to is the weird screen allocations. For initial pre-sales, VIP theatres tend to be big sellers. They're limited capacity, so seats go quickly. And they're ideal for date night or girls night out type audiences. It was the biggest seller for Deadpool and Wolceri for example.

 

But Wicked doesn't have any showings for this format chain wide. Neither does Gladiator. 

 

I'm sure if these showings were available, it would be capturing a lot of sales. And they sell for more than IMAX tickets.

 

You also don't have late evening shows in some theatres. 

 

This whole thing feels like a weird experiment by the chain and I can't tell why.

[justnumbers]

Can't help but feel sad that most of our "big" trackers don't track anymore. This feels emptier.

[vafrow]

45 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

Can't help but feel sad that most of our "big" trackers don't track anymore. This feels emptier.

 

As someone who's been doing a small track now for about a year and a half, I will say, it can be rewarding , but exhausting work. And it sounds like with sites changing and requiring constant changing scripts, it can be demoralizing for those doing larger areas.

 

MTC4 changed their app about a year ago and forced me to completely change my approach. I'm at least manual, so it's hard for it to become any more onerous than it is. 

 

As a community, we probably just need to be better at managing imperfect information. Having lots of smaller trackers running these days who are building up suffic comps sets will give us different windows into different markets.

 

I always go back to the messaging that anyone lurking on here can track. Start with a single theatre if needed. And just keep basic track on a spreadsheet somewhere. 

[filmpalace]

11 hours ago, CompoundTheGains said:

Terrifier 3 Utah presale update. 
Thursday Oct 10 showings only. 
7 theaters. 
28 showings (+11 since T-3)
 
T-21 was 177 tickets sold.  25.286 tickets per theater or 11.06 tickets per showing. 
  
T-17 is 245 tickets sold (+38.4%).  35.00 tickets per theater or 15.31 tickets per showing.  
 
T-13 (1:30pm EST) is 292 tickets sold (+19.18%).  41.71 tickets per theater or 18.25 tickets per showing.
 
T-8 (1:45pm EST) is 370 tickets sold (+26.71%).  52.86 tickets per theater or 23.12 tickets per theater.

 

T-6 (9:30pm EST) is 461 tickets sold (+24.59%).  65.86 tickets per theater or 28.81 tickets per showing.

 

T-3 (7pm EST) is 572 tickets sold (+24.08%).  81.71 tickets per theater or 33.65 tickets per showing.

 

T-1 (9:40pm EST) is 715 tickets sold (+25.00%).  102.14 tickets per theater or 25.54 tickets per showing.

With the movie releasing today, I feel like you deserve some more love for tracking this for over 3 weeks in multiple areas. I don't know if you did it all manually or used a script, but it's impressive nonetheless. If it weren't for your posts, I think the movie's ticket sales wouldn't have been on so many users' radar up until closer to release.

[Hiccup23]

23 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

Alamo Drafthouse Chicago (Gladiator II VS. Wicked: Part 1)

 

Gladiator II	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	47	195	24.1%
Friday	28	260	10.8%
Saturday	21	260	8.1%
Sunday	13	260	5.0%
Wicked	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	115	309	37.2%
Friday	71	412	17.2%
Saturday	92	412	22.3%
Sunday	21	412	5.1%

 

 

Gladiator II	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	47	195	24.1%
Friday	36	260	13.8%
Saturday	27	260	10.4%
Sunday	13	260	5.0%
Wicked	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	202	309	65.4%
Friday	177	412	43.0%
Saturday	210	412	51.0%
Sunday	126	412	30.6%

 

 

Yall Wicked is selling like nothing I have seen at this theater. 

[Box Office Hit]

 

[AniNate]

I am interested in tracking these movies but waiting for a few days to pass before counting them up. It is frankly still really early.

[CompoundTheGains]

50 minutes ago, filmpalace said:

With the movie releasing today, I feel like you deserve some more love for tracking this for over 3 weeks in multiple areas. I don't know if you did it all manually or used a script, but it's impressive nonetheless. If it weren't for your posts, I think the movie's ticket sales wouldn't have been on so many users' radar up until closer to release.

I appreciate the kind words.  I haven’t ever tracked before and this was all done manually counting so I’m glad to hear it was helpful despite me not having a history of comp data.  I’m just a blueberry farmer from Michigan invested in Terrifier 3’s distributor.  I believed this movie could have a box office run well above the company’s marketcap and wanted to follow that hypothesis.  Seeing little data available I thought I’d do some tracking myself.  I will now have very good data for a Terrifier 4 comp when that time comes.  This community has been very welcoming and helpful and I have enjoyed this experience even if the time commitment was more than I first realized when tracking several states. 😅. Thanks again for the kind words!  

Edited 12 hours ago by CompoundTheGains

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, Hiccup23 said:

Gladiator II	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	47	195	24.1%
Friday	36	260	13.8%
Saturday	27	260	10.4%
Sunday	13	260	5.0%
Wicked	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	202	309	65.4%
Friday	177	412	43.0%
Saturday	210	412	51.0%
Sunday	126	412	30.6%

 

 

Yall Wicked is selling like nothing I have seen at this theater. 

Great for Wicked. Just hoping Gladiator 2 can hold it's own and do at least  40+ that weekend because it's going to get steamrolled . The actual quality will be important but strong reviews did not help Furiosa  but Gladiator should play much more mainstream and the target Male audience who are not interested in Wicked do not sit at home while their wives and daughters go see that  and Moana 2  over that 10 day Thanksgiving period of moviegoing.

[vale9001]

 

10 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Great for Wicked. Just hoping Gladiator 2 can hold it's own and do at least  40+ that weekend because it's going to get steamrolled . The actual quality will be important but strong reviews did not help Furiosa  but Gladiator should play much more mainstream and the target Male audience who are not interested in Wicked do not sit at home while their wives and daughters go see that  and Moana 2  over that 10 day Thanksgiving period of moviegoing.

 

 

well if wicked is so strong Gladiator sales in comparison don't look bad at all.

 

Don't forget Ariana Grande has 376M followers on instagram alone. That's more than the accounts of Marvel Studios, Hugh Jackman, Robert Downey Jr, Chris Pratt, Chris Hemsworth, Ryan Reynolds and Tom Holland combined. 

 

 

 

The main star of Gladiator doesn't even have an instagram (Paramount Pictures has 900K followers on instagram 😅)

 

The instant pushing level of the pre sales is just very different. 

 

Anyways it's clear like with Barbenheimer and the "female" movie will definitely win and with a strong margin. 

 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by vale9001

[TomThomas]

1 hour ago, Box Office Hit said:

 

So Empire actual meant Wicked is SPECTACULAR and Gladiator 2 is just pretty good when he didn't say which one?

[Alexander]

I'd bet Wicked doesn't translate so well OS. Think this is another Beetlejuice and Twisters with DOM 60-70%.

[WebSurfer]

Oh wow, The Wild Robot came very close to beating Joker at the Wednesday box office.

[vale9001]

9 minutes ago, Alexander said:

I'd bet Wicked doesn't translate so well OS. Think this is another Beetlejuice and Twisters with DOM 60-70%.

 

Depends on the US total. Anyways if It works in the US It's gonna work in all the markets where musicals work and where the musical has been a success too. Uk, Korea, Japan, Australia etc..

 

With big numbers also there seems enough to be a solid success even if Continental Europe or south america are softier.

Edited 11 hours ago by vale9001