The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[KeepItU25071906]

49 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

The UK alone will stop Wicked from having a gigantic domestic %. It’s going to be huge here. 

I think The Wonderful Wizard of Oz is pretty huge in Europe

[Eric the Clown]

6 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Huh. Wonder what the top two were for PG movies. Like…Incredibles 2 and Lion King? I guess?

[Bob Train]

2 minutes ago, Eric the Clown said:

Huh. Wonder what the top two were for PG movies. Like…Incredibles 2 and Lion King? I guess?

Spider-Verse 2 could be up there.

[dudalb]

2 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

I think The Wonderful Wizard of Oz is pretty huge in Europe

The  1939 film is pretty huge everywhere.

[Eric the Clown]

Never mind, Erik Davis gave us the answer

 

 

[kayumanggi]

6 minutes ago, Eric the Clown said:

Huh. Wonder what the top two were for PG movies. Like…Incredibles 2 and Lion King? I guess?

 

I think those two are the best candidates.

[Eric the Clown]

So uh…yeah. I guess 100M+ is gonna happen, even if it has a mediocre final week. This and Moana really are going to be neck and neck this holiday season.

[justnumbers]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I think those two are the best candidates.

Frozen 2 and Lion King

[CJohn]

Universal coming for the mouse's ass again this Thanksgiving.

[Ryan C]

17 hours ago, Ryan C said:

Saturday Night

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 314 Seats Sold (From 11 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 7:30 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Didn't think it was worth tracking this one, but ultimately decided to. 

 

Yeah, I wouldn't expect high numbers for this one. Maybe more people will wait to see it on the weekend, but I would expect anywhere between $2.5M on the low end and $5M on the high end for this film over the weekend I'd expect a Thursday preview number between $500K and $750K (because there'll be more showtimes). 

 

I'll track this one again tomorrow (just before previews start), but this is unfortunately looking like another Dumb Money from last year. Hopefully, stronger awards buzz/attention gives this a bigger boost than that film. 

 

 

Saturday Night

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 436 Seats Sold (38.8% Increase From Last Time)

From 12 Theaters

 

Taken as of 1:40 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Actually a pretty good bump from where it was at last night, though some of that can be attributed to having an extra theater to track. 

 

Still, I'm not expcting a whole lot with this movie's expansion into wide release. I'll up my low end prediction to $3M but anything above $5M is looking like a pipe dream at this point. 

 

Hope it can do considerably better over the weekend (I would love to see it sneak into the Top Five), but we'll see.

[MightyDargon]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Universal coming for the mouse's ass again this Thanksgiving.

Thanks for the mental image of vermin ass. Just what I needed after lunch.

[vafrow]

Interesting that it's number two for pre-sales for the year. I only have my particular lens, but I'm guessing it's not the case here, as I'm pretty sure Dune 2 was stronger. It was by a large margin in my market, but it overindexed in Canada by a lot.

 

I probably should be using that as a comp. It'll be spitting out a lower number, but will be a good film to track for growth.

[todos]

I remember the Eras tour getting ready to conquer all the box office records with 3 hours of sales. 

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

Interesting that it's number two for pre-sales for the year. I only have my particular lens, but I'm guessing it's not the case here, as I'm pretty sure Dune 2 was stronger. It was by a large margin in my market, but it overindexed in Canada by a lot.

 

I probably should be using that as a comp. It'll be spitting out a lower number, but will be a good film to track for growth.

 

I think the reason why Wicked is over Dune: Part Two is because pre-sales for non-PLF showtimes were much stronger for the former than the ladder. 

 

I know it varies from market to market, but I remember Dune 2 not doing especially well in the non-PLF screenings. Sure, it was selling like crazy for any PLF screeing (IMAX, Dolby, etc.) that you could find, but I think the need to see that movie on the biggest screen possible (though beneficial in the long run) hurt demand for non-PLF screenings at the beginning of pre-sales.

 

Though Wicked has been doing fantastically in PLF screens (even in the few IMAX screens it has) it's also been doing really well in non-PLF showtimes. Unlike Dune 2, there's not a "you need to see this on the biggest screen possible" incentive which is beneficial for people who just want to see the film in a regular format. Also, Wicked has the added bonus of 3D screenings and compared to IMAX, more theaters (ones that don't have an IMAX or Dolby) are able to play the film on those screens. 

 

It's complicated, but that's probably why Wicked is over Dune: Part Two right now in terms of first-day pre-sales for 2024. Still highly impressive though. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

I still think Moana 2 will win the battle here. It’s getting all PLFs as well isn’t it? And basically no competition until Mufasa, interestingly 

[Kon]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

 

Mamma mia is a juke box musicals with some of the most popular radio tunes ever. 

Bohemian the same. And I wouldn't call It a musical btw.

Mary Poppins is Mary Poppins and Disney. 

 

Anyways i can tell you in most culture including mine people don't like the purest kind of Broadway american musical. This mean when there is a loooot of music (like 3/4 of the movie is people singing) and when the music is part of the narrative and people sings about events etc..

 

part of this It's because reading 2 hours of subs of songs can became very boring. In Australia, uk etc..they play good too because they speak english too.

 

Anyways lately they are making more and more subtitled musicals also in the singing parts like Disney always has made (Wonka, dear Evan hensen). This helps a lot. Wonka would have had a way worst WOM upon the audience of families with subtitled songs cause It's very hard for not english children to follow them.

 

 

In the case of Latin American dub, all the dialogues and songs will be on spanish. The voices for Elphaba and Glinda are actors who portrayed them in (mexican) musicals.

[filmlover]

Wicked gonna be a slightly smaller scale Barbie/Beauty and the Beast '17. The hype is real.

 

Re: its overseas potential, Oz the Great and Powerful made almost half of its worldwide total from the US just 11.5 years ago, so that seems like a good expectation to have. Unlikely this is another Twisters/Beetlejuice Beetlejuice where it's especially domestic heavy.

[Kon]

6 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

I still think Moana 2 will win the battle here. It’s getting all PLFs as well isn’t it? And basically no competition until Mufasa, interestingly 

I mean, Moana 2 will have competition from the previous week.

 

We still need to see how Moana 2 will be received.

[AniNate]

Competition is pretty much irrelevant in December. The early part of the month is invariably a dead zone (which is why big movies are never scheduled there) but the holiday weeks are always a bumper frame for any movie with good audience reception.  

Edited 8 hours ago by AniNate

[AniNate]

4 minutes ago, Kon said:

I mean, Moana 2 will have competition from the previous week.

 

We still need to see how Moana 2 will be received.

 

Well, we also still need to see how Wicked will be received