The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, Chubbycc said:

 

I've noticed Gladiator 2 has been getting hit tweets like this with millions of views but it isn't translating much with the pre-sales. Shows that Twitter isn't real life. I think Tiktok is better platform to measure the popularity of this movie. Moana 2 has huge trailer views and hundreds of posts on Tiktok, but its quiet on Twitter. And Wicked has been getting viral posts on Tiktok as well. 

 

 

they're saying here sales are accellerating now so the hit tweets could work too. Moana and Wicked are movies for kids -young people need to watch a movie on day one and day two.

 

What's important for Gladiator is the average dad is aware gladiator exists, then he doesn't need to go at 3PM on first day so to buy tickets one month before. If he knows about the movie and he cares about it he's just going...at some point 😅

 

this is a sequel so it's normal to expect already a solid first weekend but it's useful to remember the first movie made a 34M first weekend and then 190M total. 

Edited Wednesday at 04:23 PM by vale9001

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

 

From the number of likes and 10M views of this tweet alone probably just because of this 

 

 

 

 

 

Does these buckets cost extra? If not this one is def worth buying tix.

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Does these buckets cost extra? If not this one is def worth buying tix.

Of course they cost extra.

[vale9001]

48 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Does these buckets cost extra? If not this one is def worth buying tix.

 

Yeah. Depends on the specific bucket of course but prices are from 20 to 40 dollars from what i remember from different movies. 

[Grand Cine]

https://deadline.com/2024/10/venom-the-last-dance-china-global-international-box-office-1236156457/

 

Expections higher after China debut ( with a possibly high 30's 5 days weekend) - 165M WW weekend

[M37]

2 hours ago, Chubbycc said:

 

I've noticed Gladiator 2 has been getting hit tweets like this with millions of views but it isn't translating much with the pre-sales. Shows that Twitter isn't real life. I think Tiktok is better platform to measure the popularity of this movie. Moana 2 has huge trailer views and hundreds of posts on Tiktok, but its quiet on Twitter. And Wicked has been getting viral posts on Tiktok as well. 

Twitter’s (remaining) audience skews male and older, TikTok younger and female. Setting aside how (un)trustworthy Twitter’s engagement metrics are, would expect a bifurcation in where each respective film’s content would perform better 

 

And FWIW, Twisters also had some TikTok vitality (though from what I saw, a fair amount specific to Glen Powell admiration)

[keysersoze123]

Xitter is full of bots. Its easy to have tons of posts on anything at this point. We have to look at engagement levels and who is posting them as well. If its trending, it will do across all social media(Tiktok, Insta, YT etc). 

[Chubbycc]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

they're saying here sales are accellerating now so the hit tweets could work too. Moana and Wicked are movies for kids -young people need to watch a movie on day one and day two.

 

What's important for Gladiator is the average dad is aware gladiator exists, then he doesn't need to go at 3PM on first day so to buy tickets one month before. If he knows about the movie and he cares about it he's just going...at some point 😅

 

this is a sequel so it's normal to expect already a solid first weekend but it's useful to remember the first movie made a 34M first weekend and then 190M total. 

 

i'm definitely seeing both Wicked and Gladiator. I still haven't brought my tickets yet. My dad is going to go see gladiator as well. I guess Gen X aren't on twitter or tiktok. 

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, joselowe said:

Which is complete opposite for Wicked. The Wicked budget was $145 million…. But that was for the two films combined. Jon Chu and Universal were smart two use the budget to build two films which essentially means each film cost Universal $72 million and they are making a killing with the branding deals. So even if Wicked underperforms Universal essentially won’t lose anything.

Oh I didn’t realise the $145m was for both films. 
 

They have a lot of brand promotion that won’t cost them a penny either. 

[HummingLemon496]

So is it Venomover or are we Venomback?

[vale9001]

Tik tok is not very used by over 40 people. You definitely need that to envolve the youngest but gladiator can't be a success only because because of tik tok virality. It needs a different audience. Being viral on Twitter or facebook still better than nothing and still is important for the audience It needs to reach. 

 

Like dune It can became viral also on Tik Tok once the movie is out for several reasons. Very few reasons to be viral before. 

 

Anyways the point of everything is gladiator is like Elvis, Oppenheimer, Bond, MI, Top Gun etc.. doesn't need to be a pre Sales giant to then being a success. It doesn't need to be a tik tok phenomenon a month before to turn into a box office hit. Being viral on Tik Tok One month before just shows a movie is gonna have Kids there at the first weekend, says not very much about the movie turning then into an effective phenomenon for its content or into a movie with great legs. 

 

 

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Oh I didn’t realise the $145m was for both films. 
 

They have a lot of brand promotion that won’t cost them a penny either. 

 

I don't know what @joselowesource is but several sources are saying otherwhise

 

Deadline wrote 2 weeks ago on an article about the movie chances at the box office "the movie costs 145 + P&A"..i think they mean just part One of they would be more clear about the fact is for 2 movies. Of course that changes a lot in the box office discourse.

 

 

 

145 M to make a 5 hours movies of that kinda seems too low to me. I can believe they didn't spend 200M for every part but more reasonable budget seems to me like 200-250M for both at least 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited Wednesday at 07:36 PM by vale9001

[filmlover]

The fact Gladiator has landed some major branding deals seems like a sign that they are indeed confident in the movie. Imagine if we really do see another Barbenheimer on a smaller scale (the long Thanksgiving weekend just days later means some of their business will be pushed to that frame).

[Ryan C]

On 10/16/2024 at 12:49 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Gladiator II

 

T-36

 

Thursday: 1,713 Seats Sold (37.8% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 12:30 AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A solid increase from last week. It's still heavily carried by the IMAX showtimes, but there is still a lot of time (a little over a month) for this to make up ground. Discounting the "Fan Event" showings, there was a 50% bump in ticket sales from the other showings on Thursday within the past week. Definitely a good sign for this one's pacing over the next few weeks. 

 

This is really one of those cases that we're not going to be able to make any final judgements until the final week of pre-sales. As @emoviefan put out to me last week, this really could go either one of two directions. It could be as walk-up heavy as Twisters or it could have no walk-up business like Furiosa. 

 

If we want Wickedator to be the next Barbenheimer, we better hope this follows the Twisters direction. Will continue to track this one every week. 

 

Gladiator II

 

T-29

 

Thursday: 2,492 Seats Sold (45.4% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 4:50 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Ok, now I'm starting to feel optimistic about this one. 

 

I was expecting a much smaller bump compared to last weekend, but the growth over the past seven days was surprisingly good. This bodes very well for it's pace in the coming weeks and if it can keep up, then I'll only be getting more optimistic about it's weekend prospects. 

 

As of right now though, it's definitely following more the Twisters route than the Furiosa route. 

[filmpalace]

23 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Venom: The Last Dance T-2

 

Tickets sold: 583 (+75)

Growth: 15%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 19

 

1,11x Joker 2 (T-2) – 7,2M

 

Joker comp stayed flat, so at least there’s that. Hope it can increase in the final 2 days.

Venom: The Last Dance T-1

 

Tickets sold: 698 (+115)

Growth: 20%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 19

 

1,10x Joker 2 (T-3) – 7,1M

 

Similar T-1 growth to Joker. Pretty sure this will stay around 7M, but let’s see how the final day goes.

[jeffthehat]

On 10/22/2024 at 12:59 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Venom 3 T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
1523	34336	211

Comps

1.06x Alien Romulus = $6.9m

1.22x Joker 2 = $7.3m

0.80x GxK NE = $8.0m

1.02x Twisters = $8.4m

 

AVG = $7.65m

 

Indiana

Venom 3 T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
1913	36641	228

Comps

1.10x Alien Romulus = $7.2m

0.91x Twisters = $7.5m

1.33x Joker 2 = $7.8m

0.82x GxK NE = $8.2m

 

AVG = $7.71m

[Ryan C]

20 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-2

 

Thursday: 4,208 Seats Sold (12.9% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 9:25PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I hate to say it, but I'm not starting to believe the weaker projections for this. This can still have a great final day, but this increase from yesterday (despite more showtimes being added) is pretty underwhelming. Just for a frame of reference, Joker: Folie à Deux had a better percentage increase from its final Monday to Thursday pre-sale window (17.1% to 12.9%). 

 

This will still have a better opening weekend because I can guarantee that buzz/word-of-mouth won't be disastrous, but it's gonna have to work real hard these next two days to convince me that this'll hit at least $60M. 

 

So the discourse surrounding this film and it's numbers don't end up being insufferable to deal with, I sincerely hope all of the walk-up business and presumed positive early reactions can boost it's financial prospects. 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 4,774 Seats Sold (13.4% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters 

 

Taken as of 7:15 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: The percentage would've been a bit higher as I'm tracking this a few hours earlier than expected, but this still isn't really pointing towards this hitting the current $65M projections for the weekend. It's gonna need a really strong final day and great walk-up business over the weekend to overcome the pessimistic projections. 

 

Not really expecting the weak reviews to affect this one though. Like the Jurassic World franchise, the Venom movies are clearly critic-proof and don't need their high approval like other comic-book movies do. 

 

We'll see how this does tomorrow (I'll track it just before the first Thursday preview showings start), but this better pick up pace fast. 

[Shawn Robbins]

NGL, sub-50m for Venom looks legit possible but I'm still clinging (for now) to the walk-up business that caused me to undershoot the last movie.

[Flip]

4 hours ago, vale9001 said:

Anyways the point of everything is gladiator is like Elvis, Oppenheimer, Bond, MI, Top Gun etc.. doesn't need to be a pre Sales giant to then being a success. It doesn't need to be a tik tok phenomenon a month before to turn into a box office hit. 

 

 

This would be true if the budget wasn’t $300m+

[filmlover]

The sales for Conclave actually seem pretty good near me. Helps that they've been promoting it aggressively on TV. Thinking it does $5M+ for the weekend at least, not bad given how dire it's been for adult dramas lately (with a lot of potential for strong staying power too).