The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Wish under Encanto's 45m five day would disastrous for Disney. No excuses for not beating the film highly impacted by covid fears in 2021.

Encanto did 40m five day.

[Mojoguy]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

Encanto did 40m five day.

Yeah, saw my error. Fixed it.

[PrinceRico]

20 minutes ago, M37 said:

Hmm … Fences made less than 9x its XMas opening (basically) day gross, so let’s maybe pump the breaks on calling this a hit beyond what looks (for now) to be a very good, holiday impacted first day 

I

This will definitely be a hit. The color purple is based on a very popular movie that made over 100 million in the 80s and became a classic and and Broadway play was very popular. WB has been doing a fantastic job with its promo. This will likely be another Les Mis and Dreamgirls. Especially what the hospital buys

Edited November 21, 2023 by PrinceRico

[Flip]

23 minutes ago, M37 said:

Hmm … Fences made less than 9x its XMas opening (basically) day gross, so let’s maybe pump the breaks on calling this a hit beyond what looks (for now) to be a very good, holiday impacted first day 

monday vs sunday, plus much more competition back then.

[keysersoze123]

Aquaman 2 MTC1 previews - 9009/495798 179369.93 2535 shows

 

Meh but expected. Around BB level I think. Only thing is it has longer cycle and its opening just before holidays. 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1 previews - 9009/495798 179369.93 2535 shows

 

Meh but expected. Around BB level I think. Only thing is it has longer cycle and its opening just before holidays. 

So what OW are we expecting? What's the over/under?

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

Really surprised the Resident Timothy stan is so down on this movie.

Can’t say I blame him for being skeptical, it’s been a tough nut to crack. Feel like for every time the marketing has made me think wholesome holiday heartwarmer, there’s been something that’s made me go “this kinda looks like a dud huh?” Paul King is the reason I still have faith, the Paddingtons are national treasures. 

[Mau]

32 minutes ago, YM! said:

Elemental MTC1 Previews(T-1) - 21913/340828 329714.67 2519 shows +5062
 

Decent-ish rebound but about 7% behind Elemental at the same point in time. Take 30% for ATP but more PLFs and that puts us at 1.56M for previews, so ~1.5M previews/~2M with EA. DHD says presales are 60% ahead of Elemental as it all comes down to walkups. As you said Encanto did about 32k (is that T-2 or final total?) for previews and Wish should (borderline) get there. Guessing around 40-50m five day then but sub 40m could happen if bad walkups.

What does ATP mean?

[Mojoguy]

1 minute ago, Mau said:

What does ATP mean?

Average Ticket Price

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Flip said:

monday vs sunday, plus much more competition back then.

It’s Christmas Day, the day of the week is almost immaterial (except that Sunday Xmas is typically the weakest as church pulls more people away than say a Wed)

 

9 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

I

This will definitely be a hit. The color purple is based on a very popular movie that made over 100 million in the 80s and became a classic and and Broadway play was very popular. WB has been doing a fantastic job with its promo. This will likely be another Les Mis and Dreamgirls. Especially what the hospital buys

Interesting comp choices, as Les Mis also grossed less than 9x its Xmas/opening day. Dreamgirls was better at 11.8x (but with sub-1000 theaters for Xmas, over 2000 later)

 

I’m just saying there are certain types of movies that blow-up on Xmas day, but that isn’t wholly reflective of overall demand. A ~$10M Xmas OD and sub-$100M total run would be in line with comps/precedent, and would be prudent to not overweight that one daily data point

[Mau]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Average Ticket Price

Thank u! 

[abracadabra1998]

Alright, diving into the count

 

[charlie Jatinder]

47 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wish MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 20371/389578 302400.43 2576 shows +4300

Wednesday - 27557/680570 376089.33 4366 shows +5860

 

Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. 

Nice for previews. Can go close to 40K.

[emoviefan]

24 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Can’t say I blame him for being skeptical, it’s been a tough nut to crack. Feel like for every time the marketing has made me think wholesome holiday heartwarmer, there’s been something that’s made me go “this kinda looks like a dud huh?” Paul King is the reason I still have faith, the Paddingtons are national treasures. 

Yeah can see that.  It does not help that every big studio movie lately has underwhelmed with the Critics. Fingers crossed the early review emnbargo is a good sign,  Of course that is offset by the fact studios have misjudged whether their movies are going to score critically more than a few times.  

[BadOlCatSylvester]

For those of you who think the holidays are going to save Aquaman 2 if it sucks, I raise you this:

As I've said time and time again, if the tentpole of any given season isn't up to par, then people just won't go to the movies. Lack of competition isn't the airbag it once was.

[HummingLemon496]

6 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

For those of you who think the holidays are going to save Aquaman 2 if it sucks, I raise you this:

As I've said time and time again, if the tentpole of any given season isn't up to par, then people just won't go to the movies. Lack of competition isn't the airbag it once was.

INB4 Last Jedi legs

Edited November 21, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

For those of you who think the holidays are going to save Aquaman 2 if it sucks, I raise you this:

As I've said time and time again, if the tentpole of any given season isn't up to par, then people just won't go to the movies. Lack of competition isn't the airbag it once was.

Not relevant when we’re talking about a holiday where approximately nothing is hitting. That’s never happened before. Some Xmas movies gotta get dragged to 100 at least by default 

Edited November 21, 2023 by MovieMan89

[DAJK]

Napoleon’s actually selling REALLY well around me. I know that Wish isn’t a presales movie, but Napoleon is consistently pre-sold 10x Wish Tuesday onward.

 

Wouldn’t be surprised if this can hit high 20s or 30 for the 5-day.

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Napoleon’s actually selling REALLY well around me. I know that Wish isn’t a presales movie, but Napoleon is consistently pre-sold 10x Wish Tuesday onward.

 

Wouldn’t be surprised if this can hit high 20s or 30 for the 5-day.

That would be a pleasant surprise. God knows we need a surprise like that right now.

[Mulder]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not relevant when we’re talking about a holiday where approximately nothing is hitting. That’s never happened before. Some Xmas movies gotta get dragged to 100 at least by default 

I'll actually push back on this. I hate that I can't remember what specific season or month it was, but there was another big month/season with nothing really appealing and nothing ended up breaking out despite this same argument. If there's nothing appealing/interesting to people they'll just...stay home. It's not the 1910s-1950s anymore where movies were pretty much your only non-sports game, radio, or book entertainment venue. People have TV, video games, streaming, online videos etc. If Wonka, Color Purple, and/or Aquaman 2 don't grab anyone, people won't shell out 20-60 dollars (depending on group size) before concessions just because it's the holidays and those are the movies available.