The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[crazymoviekid]

On 4/24/2024 at 11:10 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Challengers:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 18 Tickets

Theater 2: 13 Tickets

 

Lisa Frankenstein: $1.29M

Mean Girls: $.79M

Anyone But You: $.60M

No Hard Feelings: $4.44M

Magic Mike 3: $1.41M

Don't Worry Darling: $.82M

 

Good day of sales. Not great day for comps. Ranging between $.75M-$1.25M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 44 Tickets

Theater 2: 40 Tickets

 

Lisa Frankenstein: $3.22M

Mean Girls: $1.39M

Anyone But You: $4.67M

No Hard Feelings: $19.61M

Magic Mike 3: $8.25M

Don't Worry Darling: $3.93M

 

Good day. Comps still wide. Feeling more $4.5M+

Challengers:

 

Final Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 20 Tickets

Theater 2: 23 Tickets

 

Lisa Frankenstein: $1.43M

Mean Girls: $.66M

Anyone But You: $.40M

No Hard Feelings: $1.60M

Magic Mike 3: $1.43M

Don't Worry Darling: $.85M

 

Fine final day of sales. Feeling good about $1.5M.

 

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 64 Tickets
Theater 2: 76 Tickets

 

Lisa Frankenstein: $4.90M
Mean Girls: $1.71M
Anyone But You: $4.62M
No Hard Feelings: $10.32M
Magic Mike 3: $8.30M
Don't Worry Darling: $4.67M

 

Pretty strong day. Comps narrowing. Feeling more $4.5M-$5M

Edited April 26 by crazymoviekid

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Garfield Movie (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	84	10	10	10661	0.09
Sunday May 19 EA: 8 theaters	8	93	93	842	11.05
TOTALS:	92	103	103	11503	0.9

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		0	0	0
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		10	10	100

 

Was super busy Day 1 of release so I wasn't able to get to this, but this seems like it'll be like Trolls where EA syphons off all the early sales, so I'll for sure keep them separate here.

 

Thursday Comps:*

0.15x Wonka: $520k

0.26x Wish: $460k

1.25x Trolls: $1.63 Million

 

*Very low sales will lead to big variance in these early days. Trolls is the most useful comp due to similar EA situations.

 

EA Comps:

0.6x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes EA: ??

0.91x Fall Guy EA: ??

0.16x Dune Part 2 EA: $325k

 

Again, Trolls EA will be the most useful here but the first comp for it will be at T-16.

 

Gotta love EA  

[misterpepp]

On 4/24/2024 at 1:48 PM, Boxofficerules said:

When do The Strangers: Chapter One tickets go on sale?

 

April 30.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Challengers MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 24266/295401 463648.44 1703 shows +5021

Friday - 27792/489438 508416.56 2681 shows +6466

 

Obviously yesterday was heavily boosted due to TMobile deal. Should hit 2m thursday I feel or come very close. Add another 600-700K for early shows. Definitely feel good about 20m OW as well looking at thursday pace and great reviews seen so far. 

Challengers MTC1

Previews Final - 39534/295298 723223.69 1709 shows +15268

Friday - 39292/491252 705552.77 2694 shows +11500

 

Ok final day. Still its numbers are great relative to rest of the market. Giving it Monkey Man ratio still takes it to 1.8m thursday only and somewhere close to 2.5m including early shows. Let us see how rest of the weekend goes. I think walkups should be better over the weekend. 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-8, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 20

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 15/6

Late Evening: 5/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 13/6

IMAX: 2/4

4DX: 5/2

 

EA sales

Total: 49

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.435x Wonka for $1.5M

0.317x GB:FE for $1.5M

0.098x GxK for $1.0M

0.104x HG:BoSS for $0.6M

Avg: $1.1M

 

Comps (includes EA)

1.500x Wonka for $5.3M

1.095x GB:FE for $5.1M

0.338x GxK for $3.4M

0.358x HG:BoSS for $2.1M

AVG: $4.0M

 

Still nothing.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-7, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 20

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 15/6

Late Evening: 5/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 13/6

IMAX: 2/4

4DX: 5/2

 

EA sales

Total: 49

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.377x Wonka for $1.3M

0.308x GB:FE for $1.4M

0.088x GxK for $0.9M

0.095x HG:BoSS for $0.5M

Avg: $1.0M

 

Comps (includes EA)

1.302x Wonka for $4.6M

1.062x GB:FE for $5.0M

0.305x GxK for $3.1M

0.329x HG:BoSS for $1.9M

AVG: $3.6M

 

More nothing. Three days of zero sales.

 

[vafrow]

On 4/21/2024 at 9:25 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-19 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 30

New Sales since T-27: 16

Growth: 114%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 27/7

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 6/7

IMAX: 17/6

VIP: 7/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 18

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 4

 

Comps

1.143x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.086x Dune 2 (previews only) for $0.9M

1.200x GB:FE for $5.6M

 

Average: $3.3M

 

This also seems to be sluggish. Choice of comps won't get much better until next week, but there isn't anything right now that looks like it's going to paint this in a positive light.

 

This one actually worries me more than Fall Guy in a lot of ways. Fall Guy is more likely to draw in casuals. The fourth iteration of a franchise reboot should see stronger sales up front. 

 

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-14 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 43

New Sales since T-19: 13

Growth: 43%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 38/7

Late Evening: 4/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 13/7

IMAX: 18/6

VIP: 12/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 21

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 3

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.185x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.095x Dune 2 for $1.0M

1.132x GB:FE for $5.3M

0.381x GxK for $3.8M

0.566x HG: BoSS for $3.3M

 

Average: $3.3M

 

Continues to be sluggish. It sounds like early reactions have been good. Hopefully it can land good reviews when the embargo drops and see a spike.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-7	Jax	6	36	5	24	6,208	0.39%
		Phx	7	24	2	49	4,147	1.18%
		Ral	8	31	2	55	4,762	1.15%
	Total		21	91	9	128	15,117	0.85%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	10	3	47	2,007	2.34%
		Phx	1	2	1	23	618	3.72%
		Ral	2	2	2	23	412	5.58%
	Total		8	14	6	93	3,037	3.06%
Tarot	T-7	Jax	5	21	0	5	1,752	0.29%
		Phx	6	16	1	9	2,534	0.36%
		Ral	7	18	0	7	2,268	0.31%
	Total		18	55	1	21	6,554	0.32%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-7 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.483x (4.1m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.426x (4m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .619x (2.92m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.339x (3.16m)

 - Civil War - 1.356x (3.93m)

 - Free Guy - 1.381x (3.16m)

 - Ticket to Paradise (Total) - 3.453x (3.9m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .913x (3.59m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.36m

 

Tarot T-7 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .42x (315k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .178x (474k)

 - Abigail - .568x (568k)

 - Talk to Me - .467x (581k)

 - The First Omen - 1.167x (846k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 680k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-6	Jax	6	36	5	29	6,208	0.47%
		Phx	7	24	8	57	4,147	1.37%
		Ral	8	31	5	60	4,762	1.26%
	Total		21	91	18	146	15,117	0.97%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	10	5	52	2,007	2.59%
		Phx	1	2	0	23	618	3.72%
		Ral	2	2	5	28	412	6.80%
	Total		8	14	10	103	3,037	3.39%
Tarot	T-6	Jax	5	21	2	7	1,752	0.40%
		Phx	6	16	1	10	2,534	0.39%
		Ral	7	18	2	9	2,268	0.40%
	Total		18	55	5	26	6,554	0.40%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-6 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.541x (4.2m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.448x (4.06m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .578x (2.72m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.528x (3.61m)

 - Civil War - 1.284x (3.72m)

 - Free Guy - 1.227x (2.8m)

 - Ticket to Paradise (Total) - 3.557x (4m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .902x (3.54m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.28m

 

Tarot T-6 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .473x (355k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .193x (513k)

 - Abigail - .65x (650k)

 - Talk to Me - .481x (599k)

 - The First Omen - 1.182x (857k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 698k

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Unsung Hero - 55/2,220

 - Downton - .228x (240k)

 - Crawdads - .107x (214k)

 - Easter Sunday - .833x (417k)

 

Challengers - 118/5,701

 - Massive Talent - 1.422x (1.19m)

 - Monkey Man - 1.18x (1.65m)

 - Ungentlemanly Warfare - 1.76x (1.5m)

 

Boy Kills World - 12/1,488

 - Massive Talent - .145x (121k)

 - Ambulance - .333x (233k)

 

I'm thinking all three movies are underperforming here for some reason.  Just adding them for future comp usage.

Santikos Tracking

 

FRIDAY

 

Unsung Hero - 268/6,021

 - Crawdads - .337x (1.77m)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.076x (1.65m) 

 - Ticket to Paradise - .407x (2.16m)

 

This is the second largest jump from Thu to Fri final sales (+3.87x) that I've tracked, behind only Smile (+4.17x).  I'm expecting a little over 2x ratio from Thu previews to true Friday. 

 

Challengers - 234/7,349

 - Monkey Man - .785x (2.18m)

 - Ungentlemanly Warfare - 1.078x (2.47m)

 - Civil War - .314x (2.49m)

 - Paradise - .356x (1.89m)

 - Crawdads - .294x (1.55m)

 

I'd wager somewhere in the +1.7x to 1.8x true previews to true Friday. 

 

Boy Kills World - 33/3,720

 

I haven't tracked anything with under... 217 tickets sold for Friday so not really any point in comping.  Finished +1.75x previews so for an action movie that would put me a little over 2x Thursday

 

**This is the first time in maybe a year looking at multipliers so cut me some slack when these are terrible.

[filmlover]

17 hours ago, Krissykins said:

No. I seen $750k and £2m from Thursday alone, that’s why I posted the range, if you have another look. 
 

Glad some films are tracking half decently. $6-10m would be bleak for Back to Black and The Strangers Chapter 1 though. They need to step up the marketing, but Strangers is Lionsgate so they probably won’t bother advertising properly.  

Back to Black is doing well in the UK (Winehouse's home country), which is probably all that really matters to them given the staggered release. $6-8M wouldn't be too dismal considering the reviews are poor and the complicated legacy of this particular artist was always going to make a biopic a not easy sell.

[Flopped]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Finished +1.75x previews

 

Has any wide release every performed this poorly in previews? 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Back to Black is doing well in the UK (Winehouse's home country), which is probably all that really matters to them given the staggered release. $6-8M wouldn't be too dismal considering the reviews are poor and the complicated legacy of this particular artist was always going to make a biopic a not easy sell.

Yeh it’s headed for the equivelant of a $120m+ grosser here. I still don’t think a $6-8m opening in May would be very good though. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

59 minutes ago, Flopped said:

 

Has any wide release every performed this poorly in previews? 

It's the lowest I've tracked in Santikos... but before a few weeks ago I rarely tracked anything small.  For my regionals it finished with 121 sold - I've got 25 movies lower than that (only three that reported previews).  Those three were Night House (260k with 93 sold), Dear Evan Hansen Q&A (200k from 76 sold) and She Said (160k from 68 sold).  

[katnisscinnaplex]

Lord of the Rings (Extended Editions) run on 6/8, 6/9 and 6/10 looks to be in around 1k theaters.   Sales looking good already as expected (I already got mine!)

[Flopped]

40 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

It's the lowest I've tracked in Santikos... but before a few weeks ago I rarely tracked anything small.  For my regionals it finished with 121 sold - I've got 25 movies lower than that (only three that reported previews).  Those three were Night House (260k with 93 sold), Dear Evan Hansen Q&A (200k from 76 sold) and She Said (160k from 68 sold).  

 

Thanks.  Do you think this is accurate? 

 

Early industry estimates for previews on Roadside Attractions’ Boy Kills World movie is around $500K. The Lionsgate’s sister label uber-action movie that was acquired out of TIFF Midnight is looking at a single digit opening. RT reviews are at 63% fresh, audiences are at 60%. PostTrak moviegoers were hard on the film at 3 stars, 66% positive and a 67% guy turnout. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

3 minutes ago, Flopped said:

 

Thanks.  Do you think this is accurate? 

 

Early industry estimates for previews on Roadside Attractions’ Boy Kills World movie is around $500K. The Lionsgate’s sister label uber-action movie that was acquired out of TIFF Midnight is looking at a single digit opening. RT reviews are at 63% fresh, audiences are at 60%. PostTrak moviegoers were hard on the film at 3 stars, 66% positive and a 67% guy turnout. 

That's a question for @charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Based on miniTC2 would guess $250-300K previews.

23 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

That's a question for @charlie Jatinder