The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

FYI we have to rely on regional trackers and rehypc updates along with any minitc updates. My final update for Deadpool will be for T-7. I am traveling and will be back post release only. 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/24/2024 at 9:11 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-9) - 22809/1089364 378714.91 5780 shows +2450

 

it has accelerated as well. Let us see how things go. May be once it hits T-7, we could comp it with IO2 Friday?

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-8) - 26100/1148236 432707.30 6171 shows +3291

 

Its definitely amping up at the right time. It should be at 75-80% range of Inside Out Friday. of course IO2 had crazy finish and so one has to monitor how DM4 does with a wednesday release that should function better than a normal friday I think. Definitely looking at a good OD at this point.  

 

Mario was over 82K at this point and so its around 1/3 of that movie. Let us see where  it is early next week. 

[jeffthehat]

On 6/25/2024 at 11:33 AM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

A Quiet Place: Day One T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
771	22544	131

TC=27, pulled 11 AM EST

Comps

0.98x Furiosa T-2 = $3.4m

0.48x GxK NE T-2 = $4.8m

1.67x Civil War T-2 = $4.9m

0.88x Bad Boys 4 T-2 = $4.9m

 

AVG = $4.50m

 

True average yesterday was $4.29m, grabbed sales from the missing theater in the evening

Indiana

A Quiet Place: Day One T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
1029	24745	151

TC=28, pulled 11 AM EST

Comps

1.50x Civil War T-1 = $4.4m*

0.45x GxK NE T-1 = $4.6m

0.91x Bad Boys 4 T-1 = $5.1m

*pulled 10-ish hrs earlier 

 

AVG = $4.70m

 

Dropped Furiosa which brought the average up. It slipped a bit vs. the others. 

[JonathanMB]

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

These regional updates for Quiet place are not great 

[Hiccup23]

Horror at the Chicago Alamo Drafthouse

 

A Quiet Place: Day 1	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	108	309	35.0%
Friday	90	439	20.5%
Saturday	92	439	21.0%
Sunday	36	439	8.2%
MaXXXine	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Wednesday EA	65	65	100.0%
Friday	134	401	33.4%
Saturday	83	401	20.7%
Sunday	56	401	14.0%
Longlegs	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	88	204	43.1%
Friday	48	204	23.5%
Saturday	33	204	16.2%
Sunday	15	204	7.4%

[Manny G]

So is $200M opening a lock for Deadpool?

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/22/2024 at 11:53 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	301	102	283	49281	0.57

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		148	37	52.3
MTC1:		130	51	45.94
Other chains:		153	51	54.06

 

Comps (previews):

1.01x Inside Out 2: $13.19 Million

1.5x Kung Fu Panda 4: $5.71 Million (17 theaters)

 

Comps (Opening Day):

0.88x Paw Patrol The Mighty Movie: $5.99 Million (17 theaters)

 

Really good update, hope it continues trending upward

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	308	287	570	50455	1.13

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		218	70	38.25
MTC1:		184	54	32.28
Other chains:		386	233	67.72

 

Comps (previews):

1x Inside Out 2: $13.09 Million

1.79x Kung Fu Panda 4: $6.79 Million (17 theaters)

5.78x Migration: $8.67 Million (17 theaters)

 

Comps (Opening Day):

0.86x Paw Patrol The Mighty Movie: $5.84 Million (17 theaters)

1.25x Madame Web: $7.55 Million (17 theaters)

0.49x Bob Marley: $6.87 Million (17 theaters)

 

Ramping up for sure. Added a couple of Wednesday opening day comps. Fact is I don't have much that really fits as a good comp 

 

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Manny G said:

So is $200M opening a lock for Deadpool?

 

No.

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, JonathanMB said:

 

 

How much South needs to carry to offset big cities underperfomance? I wonder if it can do high teens at least.

[el sid]

A Quiet Place: Day One counted today for tomorrow, had 1.772 sold tickets (with shows in 7 theaters). Best sales (similar to Nope back then) in my AMCs in LA and San Francisco. 

Up so-so 31.5% since Monday. I counted but did not report, the comps were all over the place (4.25M - 14.2M). 

 

Comps (always counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): AQP II (4.8M from previews) had 1.209 sold tickets = 7.05M (went down from 8.65M on Monday). 

Civil War (2.6M) had 1.130 = 4.1M. 

Nope (6.4M) had 2.839 sold tickets (up 84% since Monday, so it had a way better jump than AQP: D1) = 4M (went down from 5.5M on Monday). 

M3gan (2.75M) had 450 sold tickets = 10.85M. 

Halloween Kills (4.85M) had 1.006 = 8.55M. 

Scream VI (5.7M) had 1.693 = 5.95M. 

And Scream (3.5M) had 1.302 sold tickets = 4.75M. 

 

Average: 6.45M. 

Still nice presales but the average went down since Monday due to a not so big jump for a horror film. 

I hope I have the time to count it again tomorrow (plus look for Horizon) and that its final jump will be a bit better.

[Flip]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	308	287	570	50455	1.13

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		218	70	38.25
MTC1:		184	54	32.28
Other chains:		386	233	67.72

 

Comps (previews):

1x Inside Out 2: $13.09 Million

1.79x Kung Fu Panda 4: $6.79 Million (17 theaters)

5.78x Migration: $8.67 Million (17 theaters)

 

Comps (Opening Day):

0.86x Paw Patrol The Mighty Movie: $5.84 Million (17 theaters)

1.25x Madame Web: $7.55 Million (17 theaters)

0.49x Bob Marley: $6.87 Million (17 theaters)

 

Ramping up for sure. Added a couple of Wednesday opening day comps. Fact is I don't have much that really fits as a good comp 

 

It’s going to need to ramp up a lot because those numbers aren’t good

[ZeroHour]

2 hours ago, JonathanMB said:

 

 

Maybe this will prove to be true, but it's hard not to roll your eyes at these type of "Everyone is wrong! Here's a screenshot of one or two showings!" tweets.

[Insomnia]

1 hour ago, Manny G said:

So is $200M opening a lock for Deadpool?

Not even close.

[Manny G]

41 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

Not even close.

How? The hype and momentum are insane are the presale not on par? Does it need like great reviews to make the difference? Sorry im not great at reading the numbers i was just assuming it was a given.

[Insomnia]

Just now, Manny G said:

How? The hype and momentum are insane are the presale not on par? Does it need like great reviews to make the difference? Sorry im not great at reading the numbers i was just assuming it was a given.

It was maybe a bit harsh, but I'm just going by tracking so far, which points to early 30's previews and around a $160M opening weekend. Given how front loaded the weekends are for these movies (Multiverse of Madness did $36M in previews and still only reached $187M for the weekend) I feel like it would need a preview number in the high 30's.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Cuckoo T-44: 12.71% Awareness, 36.37% Interest

It Ends With Us T-44: 21.79% Awareness, 41.47% Interest

Transformers One T-86: 35.48% Awareness, 44.83% Interest

Joker: Folie a Deux T-100: 53.24% Awareness, 61.42% Interest

Smile 2 T-114: 25.8% Awareness, 43.32% Interest

Here T-142: 8.09% Awareness, 35.53% Interest

Heretic T-142: 8.18% Awareness, 33.22% Interest

 

A Quiet Place: Day One T-2: 43.42% Awareness, 54.14% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 48% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 18% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 80% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 47% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 69% chance of 20M, 38% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M

 

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 T-2: 27.29% Awareness, 39.47% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 20% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-37: 19.43% Awareness, 30.99% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 31% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 60% chance of 10M

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, Manny G said:

How? The hype and momentum are insane are the presale not on par? Does it need like great reviews to make the difference? Sorry im not great at reading the numbers i was just assuming it was a given.

 

I almost made a few variations of a post about this yesterday, but I do think we should all step back and remember just what we're talking about when throwing around "200m OW" for an R-rated film:

 

Quote

Rank	Date	Movie	Gross	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
1	Feb 12, 2016	Deadpool	$132,434,639	3,558	$37,222	$132,434,639	1
2	May 18, 2018	Deadpool 2	$125,507,153	4,349	$28,859	$125,507,153	1
3	Sep 8, 2017	It	$123,403,419	4,103	$30,076	$123,403,419	1
4	Oct 4, 2019	Joker	$96,202,337	4,374	$21,994	$96,202,337	1
5	May 16, 2003	The Matrix Reloaded	$91,774,413	3,603	$25,472	$134,282,716	1
6	Sep 6, 2019	It: Chapter Two	$91,062,152	4,570	$19,926	$91,062,152	1
7	Jan 16, 2015	American Sniper	$89,269,066	3,555	$25,111	$92,693,844	4
8	Mar 3, 2017	Logan	$88,411,916	4,071	$21,717	$88,411,916	1
9	May 27, 2011	The Hangover Part II	$85,946,294	3,615	$23,775	$117,556,661	1
10	Feb 13, 2015	Fifty Shades of Grey	$85,171,450	3,646	$23,360	$85,171,450	1
11	Feb 27, 2004	The Passion of the Christ	$83,848,082	3,043	$27,554	$125,185,971	1
12	Jul 21, 2023	Oppenheimer	$82,455,420	3,610	$22,841	$82,455,420	1
13	Oct 19, 2018	Halloween	$76,221,545	3,928	$19,405	$76,221,545	1
14	Mar 24, 2023	John Wick: Chapter 4	$73,817,950	3,855	$19,149	$73,817,950	1
15	Mar 22, 2019	Us	$71,117,625	3,741	$19,010	$71,117,625	1
16	Mar 9, 2007	300	$70,885,301	3,103	$22,844	$70,885,301	1
17	Jan 23, 2015	American Sniper	$64,628,304	3,705	$17,444	$200,400,417	5
18	Jan 17, 2020	Bad Boys For Life	$62,504,105	3,775	$16,557	$62,504,105	1
19	Aug 14, 2015	Straight Outta Compton	$60,200,180	2,757	$21,835	$60,200,180	1
20	Sep 15, 2017	It	$60,103,110	4,148	$14,490	$218,813,729

 

That's the ALL TIME LIST for R-rated films for DOM OW.  $200m OW would *SHATTER* the record.  Which might happen!  Some folks here might even think it's favored/likely (I'm not one of them — yet — ftr).   

 

Even taking ticket inflation into account, I think there are only two films IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE BOX OFFICE which can conceivably be put in the discussion of the area of where DP3 might be playing in

 

(switching to BOM for better breakdowns)

 

The Matrix Reloaded: [4 day w/Wed Midnights] (2003)

Quote

May 14	Wednesday	1	$5,000,000	-	-	2,750	$1,818	$5,000,000	-
May 15	Thursday	1	$37,508,303	-	-	3,603	$10,410	$42,508,303	1
May 16	Friday	1	$31,330,393	-16.5%	-	3,603	$8,695	$73,838,696	2
May 17	Saturday	1	$34,389,237	+9.8%	-	3,603	$9,544	$108,227,933	3
May 18	Sunday	1	$26,054,783	-24.2%	-	3,603	$7,231	$134,282,716	4

 

and

The Passion of the Christ [5 day opener] (2004)

Quote

Feb 25	Wednesday	1	$26,556,573	-	-	3,006	$8,834	$26,556,573	1
Feb 26	Thursday	1	$14,781,316	-44.3%	-	3,006	$4,917	$41,337,889	2
Feb 27	Friday	1	$22,909,948	+55%	-	3,043	$7,528	$64,247,837	3
Feb 28	Saturday	1	$33,077,939	+44.4%	-	3,043	$10,870	$97,325,776	4
Feb 29	Sunday	1	$27,860,195	-15.8%	-	3,043	$9,155	$125,185,971	5

 

4 day (w/Wed Midnights) and 5 day makes it hard to judge even before we get into ATP hikes vs Changes In Movie Going Attendance problems.

 

With only two films in all of box office history *INCLUDING ADJUSTING FOR ATP* even getting close the discussion area we're talking about just shows the mountain DP3 has to climb.

 

And to be sure, it could!  Just... it's nowhere near a lock, which I would define as 95%+ chance of happening. 

 

If it was PG-13?  Might be having a different discussion.  But it isn't.  That and the two month pre-sale window is playing hell with my personal read of the film. 

 

Do probably have other thoughts here, but I really want to drive home just how immensely huge 200m OW would be for an R-rated film.

Edited Wednesday at 10:11 PM by Porthos

[Cheddar Please]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

If it was PG-13?  Might be having a different discussion.  But it isn't.  That and the two month pre-sale window is playing hell with my personal read of the film. 

 

Do probably have other thoughts here, but I really want to drive home just how immensely huge 200m OW would be for an R-rated film.

I've always believed that the people expecting DP3 and Joker 2 to be the breakouts of the year rather than animated films are severely downplaying the effect of an R-rating in limiting audience turnout. By definition, an R-rated film CANNOT be a 4-quad tentpole due to (effective) age restrictions. I think that DP3 will test the limits of an R rating in terms of gross, but I'm going to say that even an Endgame-level result in real terms would probably only get it to around where IO2 is, and that's the best case scenario!

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
547	4453	109491	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

983

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

56

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.845x) of Bad Boys 4 $4.98M

(1.067x) of Apes $5.33M 

(0.655x) of Godzilla x Kong $6.22M 
Comps AVG: $5.51M 

 

Very good acceleration 

FLORIDA 

A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
552	5432	110458	4.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

979

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.757x) of Bad Boys 4 $4.46M

(1.118x) of Apes $5.59M 

(0.669x) of Godzilla x Kong $6.35M 
Comps AVG: $5.47M 

 

I would say $5.5M preview