Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M

[Cmasterclay]

Box office is currently on fire so I'm happy, but Haunted Mansion (and also MI and Indy) are proof that if you get a few bad headlines nowadays, the flop will snowball very quickly from bad to unsalvagable. People just give up after the first weekend if it falls below expectations, with Elemental being a huge exception. Not that this hasn't happened ever in the past but it's now a lock to happen pretty much.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[harry713]

2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

Not Barbie crossing 2.5x IM after only 14 days... after a 162m opening. 4x minimum at this point. 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Box office is currently on fire so I'm happy, but Haunted Mansion (and also MI and Indy) are proof that if you get a few bad headlines nowadays, the flop will snowball very quickly from bad to unsalvagable. People just give up after the first weekend if it falls below expectations, with Elemental being a huge exception. Not that this hasn't happened ever in the past but it's now a lock to happen pretty much.

 

I woundt say locked. Elementals isnt the only counterexample, Puss in Boots 2 also opened extremely low but then legged it like it was released in 1994. I think more than the first weekend grosses, its the audience reception that now faster than ever determines a movies fate. WOM has never travelled so fast, which can save movies (Puss in Boots/Elemental) or doom them (The Flash/Indy) extremely quickly.

 

And even then, it woundt say that you can explain every underperformance that way, since imo Dead Reckoning was way more hurt by its release date then the bad headlines or WOM.

[ZeroHour]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Box office is currently on fire so I'm happy, but Haunted Mansion (and also MI and Indy) are proof that if you get a few bad headlines nowadays, the flop will snowball very quickly from bad to unsalvagable. People just give up after the first weekend if it falls below expectations, with Elemental being a huge exception. Not that this hasn't happened ever in the past but it's now a lock to happen pretty much.

I think it's a WOM issue. If WOM is even slightly less than glowing and you're not already a must see event then you fall onto people's "I'll stream it later" list. I know some will argue that MI is just a case of bad timing, but even with an A CS, the fact that the WOM on that was "it's like Fallout but not as good" was enough to kill it in the crib. The post-pandemic box office is all breakouts and bombs with a lot less in between.

[The GOAT]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I woundt say locked. Elementals isnt the only counterexample, Puss in Boots 2 also opened extremely low but then legged it like it was released in 1994. I think more than the first weekend grosses, its the audience reception that now faster than ever determines a movies fate. WOM has never travelled so fast, which can save movies (Puss in Boots/Elemental) or doom them (The Flash/Indy) extremely quickly.

 

And even then, it woundt say that you can explain every underperformance that way, since imo Dead Reckoning was way more hurt by its release date then the bad headlines or WOM.

That’s the staying power of a good animation film.

[WorkingonaName]

Greatest Showman once again proving its the GOAT. 

[ZeroHour]

2 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

That’s the staying power of a good animation film.

Yeah and in both cases the benefit of serving a young family audience with not much else to see in the marketplace. This summer has pretty much been Barbie and movies for your dad that he didn't bother to go see (except for Oppy, he's probably gonna make it to Oppy).

[marveldcfox]

It seems a lot has happened while I was away. Barbie was always destined to be a huge money maker, but $1+B WW is just unreal. Amazing stuff really. I hate Nolan to the core, but kudos for Oppenheimer being such a big hit for an R rated drama. Rest of the summer seems boring as hell with only few bright spots here and there. Really happy to see Indy 4, MIDR and Mermaid either disappointing or outright flopping.

[BadAtGender]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Well shoot I guess I need to see it a 16th(?) time

[vale9001]

Bratzbillion?

 

 

[reddevil19]

10 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Bratzbillion?

 

 

The number of hashtags in that tweet makes me think they would DEFINITELY try to create an artificial Barbenheimer environment for any such movie and fall on their face. Here's hoping.

[TMP]

Bratz should open the same day as a Sam Mendes Heisenberg movie - Bratzenberg

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

23 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Bratzbillion?

 

 

If at first you don’t succeed...

 

[Brainbug]

Just came back from THE MEG 2 and all i wanted and expected was to see HUGE SHARKS.

 

What i got was a HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT.

 

At least in the first half, the second half of the movie was exactly the kind of silly nonsense i want. But the characters .... arrrghh ... and the script ... uuuffffff ....

 

5/10, not enough huge sharks to really please me, too much of them to make me really dislike this.

[titanic2187]

 

4 hours ago, AdrianL said:

TMNT will hopefully play well for the next couple of months. Market will be pretty empty of choices for families, again. Too bad Elemental will probably not be in enough theaters to continue its run. 

Yeah, the WOM has been great and this should be another $150m+ animation. Poor Elemental, the great hold suddenly collapse facing TMNT. Making me wonder just how vulnerable the animation has become when face up against competition in this marketplace. Why can't both doing great?

 

[Grebacio]

Meg's audience score currently sits at 66% 

[Mango]

What really annoyed me with Meg 2 is the use of the song “Barracuda” by Heart in its trailer. I get why they chose the song, but a barracuda is not a goddamn shark.

[MovieMan89]

Barbenheimer definitely sparked a box office fire a bit. No way you can convince me a Meg 2 with this kind of reception would be doing this much if Barbenheimer never happened to get people hyped for theater going again. Especially since the audience is highly adult skewed. TMNT has a huge adult following as well, so also makes sense. 

[vale9001]

25 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

If at first you don’t succeed...

 

 

 

But according to rumours this new One is gonna be directed by Sofia Coppola, Damien Chazelle or Spike Jonze. 

 

🤣

Edited August 4, 2023 by vale9001

[Bob Train]

The OG Meg beat Solo at the box office, just like Meg 2 will beat Indy.