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Issac Newton

Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M

By Issac Newton, in Numbers and Data

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

ridiculously early nos

14.5
7.5
7.5
 

I have never seen films have higher growth than their presales on Friday from THU but these two films have done it for two weeks now. Its frustrating. It doesn't make sense either.

 

16

8.25+ MEG

8.25

7.5M 

Edited by across the Jat verse
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harry713 Indie Sensation

harry713

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Ninja Turtles was really good.  We laughed,  we got emotional at parts.  I really liked the animation style.  I hope it does well. 

Exceeded my expectations as well. One of the best theater experiences this summer. Also is nice that in a summer of films averaging 2.5 hrs, this one comes in at a brisk 99 minutes.

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The GOAT Box Office Gold

The GOAT

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

I have never seen films have higher growth than their presales on Friday from THU but these two films have done it for two weeks now. Its frustrating. It doesn't make sense either.

 

16

8.25+ MEG

8.25

7.5M 

Fight Omg GIF by Warner Bros. Deutschland

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LonePirate Box Office Gold

LonePirate

Posted
Posted

With $16M, Barbie jumps from #42 on the all-time list up to #34, passing Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. If it makes $50M total for the weekend, which seems likely, it will move up to #25, surpassing Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. I'm guessing it goes even higher.

 

Regardless if Oppy has that $7.5M or $8.5M number, it will move from #21 to #19 on the list of all-time R-rated movies, jumping over Terminator 2: Judgment Day and Bad Boys for Life. If it can earn $25M for the weekend, it will leap all the way up to #13, just behind Logan at #12. It needs a little over $26M for the weekend in order to pass Logan so we'll see. It will pass The Exorcist and then Beverly Hills Cop to claim the #10 spot around Wednesday of this coming week. 

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Dragoncaine Sleeper Hit

Dragoncaine

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

I have never seen films have higher growth than their presales on Friday from THU but these two films have done it for two weeks now. Its frustrating. It doesn't make sense either.

 

16

8.25+ MEG

8.25

7.5M 

Which one is $8.25m - TMNT or Oppy? I'm guessing Oppy since you're remarking about the growth for the past two weeks

Edited by Dragoncaine
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VanillaSkies Box Office Gold

VanillaSkies

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

so are we looking at $35M over the 5-day for TMNT?


more than that.

Should have a good Sat bump and Sun hold cause Friday didn’t include any previews.
 

It already had 15 million going into the weekend + 2-3 million that hasn’t been reported yet from last weekend. That’s 17-18 right there. Even a low 22-23 million FSS would get it to around 40 million 5 -day. 

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's August @WrathOfHan @Eric the Turtle:

 

30x:

 

Oppenheimer: Nope Dolby, The Black Phone, Nope Round 2 IMAX, Bullet Train Dolby, Jaws Round 2 IMAX, Avatar Round 4 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, The Pale Blue Eye, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4, Knock at the Cabin Dolby, Close, 2022 Live-Action Oscar Shorts, Moving On, Inside, How to Blow Up a Pipeline Round 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Dolby, Fast X Dolby, Crooklyn 35mm, Rushmore 35mm, Moonrise Kingdom 35mm, The Grand Budapest Hotel Round 2 35mm, Asteroid City, Asteroid City Round 2, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Dolby, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Dolby, Nope Round 3 70mm, Boogie Nights 70mm, Inception Round 3 70mm, Babylon Round 2 70mm

 

17x:

 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem: Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Dolby, The Super Mario Bros. Movie Dolby, The Little Mermaid IMAX, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Dolby, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Dolby Round 2, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Dolby, Elemental 3D, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Round 4, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Round 3 Dolby, The Super Mario Bros. Movie Round 2, The Blackening, No Hard Feelings, Barbie, Haunted Mansion Dolby, Theater Camp Round 0, Barbie Round 2 Dolby

 

15x:

 

Gran Turismo: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Dolby, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Dolby, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Dolby Round 2, Elemental 3D, Elemental Round 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Round 4, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Round 3 Dolby, Asteroid City, Asteroid City Round 2, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, No Hard Feelings, Barbie, Oppenheimer IMAX 15/70mm, Barbie Round 2 Dolby, The First Slam Dunk

 

13x:

 

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One: Top Gun: Maverick Dolby, Jurassic World Dominion IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Round 2, Elvis Dolby, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Titanic Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Dolby, You Hurt My Feelings, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Dolby, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Round 4, Asteroid City, Asteroid City Round 2, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Dolby

The Marvels: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Dolby, Fast X Dolby, The Little Mermaid IMAX, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Dolby Round 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Round 4, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Dolby, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Dolby, No Hard Feelings, Haunted Mansion Dolby, Theater Camp Round 0

 

7x:

 

Barbie: Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Magic Mike’s Last Dance Dolby, The Super Mario Bros. Movie Dolby, Elemental 3D, Elemental Round 2, The Super Mario Bros. Movie Round 2, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Dolby

Wish: The Little Mermaid IMAX, Elemental 3D, Elemental Round 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Round 4, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Haunted Mansion Dolby

Blue Beetle: Evil Dead Rise, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Dolby Round 2, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Round 3 Dolby, The Super Mario Bros. Movie Round 2, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, Barbie, Barbie Round 2 Dolby

Trolls Band Together: The Super Mario Bros. Movie Dolby, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Dolby, Elemental Round 2, The Super Mario Bros. Movie Round 2, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, Haunted Mansion Dolby, Barbie Round 2 Dolby

 

6x:

 

Strays: Cocaine Bear, Evil Dead Rise, Fast X Dolby, You Hurt My Feelings, The Blackening, No Hard Feelings

Passages: Nope Round 3 70mm, Boogie Nights 70mm, Inception Round 3 70mm, Babylon Round 2 70mm Oppenheimer Round 2 70mm, Kokomo City

 

4x:

 

White Bird: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Dolby, Elemental 3D, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Round 3 Dolby

Oldboy: Sanctuary, Asteroid City Round 2, Nope Round 3 70mm, Inception Round 3 70mm

Meg 2: The Trench: Fast X Dolby, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Dolby, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Dolby, No Hard Feelings

Migration: The Super Mario Bros. Movie Dolby, The Super Mario Bros. Movie Round 2, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, Barbie

Haunted Mansion: Elemental Round 2, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Dolby, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Barbie

Drive-Away Dolls: Asteroid City, Asteroid City Round 2, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Dolby, Talk to Me

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: Asteroid City Round 2, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, Barbie, Haunted Mansion Dolby

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes: Lightyear Dolby, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Round 4, Asteroid City, Barbie Round 2 Dolby

 

 

3x:
 
Talk to Me: Fast X Dolby, Beau is Afraid, The Blackening
Theater Camp: Chevalier, Asteroid City, The Blackening
Expend4bles: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Dolby, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Dolby, The Blackening
It Lives Inside: How to Blow Up a Pipeline Round 2, Sanctuary, Talk to Me
Problemista: You Hurt My Feelings, Past Lives, Talk to Me
Killers of the Flower Moon: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Dolby, Oppenheimer IMAX 15/70mm, Talk to Me
Poor Things: Chevalier, Asteroid City Round 2, Theater Camp Round 0
Dumb Money: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Dolby, No Hard Feelings, Theater Camp Round 0
Kokomo City: Boogie Nights 70mm, Babylon Round 2 70mm, Oppenheimer Round 2 70mm
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie: Elemental Round 2, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, The First Slam Dunk
 
2x:
 
Fantastic Four: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man
Adhira: RRR, RRR Round 2
Joy Ride: Sisu, You Hurt My Feelings
Challengers: No Hard Feelings, Barbie
Dune: Part Two: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Dolby, Oppenheimer IMAX 15/70mm
The Last Voyage of the Demeter: Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Dolby, Oppenheimer IMAX 15/70mm
Priscilla: Past Lives, Talk to Me
The Nun II: The Blackening, Talk to Me
The Exorcist: Believer: Oppenheimer IMAX 15/70mm, Talk to Me
A Haunting in Venice: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Dolby, Haunted Mansion Dolby
Next Goal Wins: Chevalier, Theater Camp Round 0
The Holdovers: Oppenheimer IMAX 15/70mm, Theater Camp Round 0
Five Nights at Freddy’s: Fast X Dolby, The First Slam Dunk
 
1x:
 
MaXXXine: Pearl
The Tunnel of Summer, The Exit of Goodbyes: Skinamarink
Insidious: The Red Door: Evil Dead Rise
The Equalizer 3: Sisu
Ordinary Angels: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Elio: Elemental 3D
Landscape with Invisible Hand: Asteroid City Round 2
Napoleon: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Dolby
Bob Marley: One Love: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Dolby
Til Death Do Us Part: The Blackening
Back on the Strip: The Blackening
The Color Purple: Barbie
The Creator: Oppenheimer IMAX 15/70mm
The Inventor: Haunted Mansion Dolby
Dreamin’ Wild: Theater Camp Round 0
Wonka: Barbie Round 2 Dolby
CatVideoFest 2023: Oppenheimer Round 2 70mm
Outlaw Johnny Black: The First Slam Dunk
Jules: The First Slam Dunk

 

Edited by Blankments
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tonytr87 Blockbuster

tonytr87

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

What is it with paramount this year despite the fact that the reviews are really strong for their movies people just aren’t showing up for some reason

 

Mission Impossible opened like a Mission Impossible movie, then got killed by Barbenheimer. Transformers overperformed given where the franchise is at right now. $42 million 5 day for an animated TMNT movie is pretty good. It's difficult on OW for any IP that goes animated AFTER going live action. Once auds have seen it live action it's difficult to get them out in droves on OW for the animated version. Remember Into the Spider-Verse's OW? 

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BadOlCatSylvester Box Office Gold

BadOlCatSylvester

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Mission Impossible opened like a Mission Impossible movie, then got killed by Barbenheimer. Transformers overperformed given where the franchise is at right now. $42 million 5 day for an animated TMNT movie is pretty good. It's difficult on OW for any IP that goes animated AFTER going live action. Once auds have seen it live action it's difficult to get them out in droves on OW for the animated version. Remember Into the Spider-Verse's OW? 

Doubly so when those preceding live action versions leave sour tastes in people's mouths. I'm still impressed by the numbers we've been seeing for it so far. I thought for sure it'd die like Smurfs: The Lost Village, but Mutant Mayhem will end up nearly eclipsing that movie's domestic total by the end of its opening frame. Barring a Greta Gerwig-like auteur the Turtles will most likely remain a niche property. So keeping the budgets modest and focusing on the core fans is not a bad way to keep it going.

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