Weekend thread August 16th-18th Alien Romulus $6.5m previews

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Firepower]

16 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Told ya it's gonna be extremely frontloaded.

[John Marston]

19 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

kind of a harsher drop than expected but should still get over 600m 

[budice]

Only big release between now and October is Beetlejuice 2

[narniadis]

20 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

So Jurassic World is safe?

Nah, less than / right around 10m away after this weekend and still has Cinema Day and the previously announced re-expansion for Labor Day with another couple weeks of non free streaming play after that. 

 

Gonna end up in the 655-660 camp. 

Edited August 17 by narniadis

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, budice said:

Only big release between now and October is Beetlejuice 2

The two animated September movies should do pretty well, though IP value likely means Transformers will post a much higher opening than The Wild Robot. Speak No Evil could also be another solid horror/thriller performer, it's receiving a gimmicky Friday the 13th opening and the studio is pushing it.

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, budice said:

Only big release between now and October is Beetlejuice 2

Fairly normal for the pre-covid end of August / September world. September is historically a slow month which is why most films aren't decent let alone big.

[AniNate]

The fact that September even has a "big" movie at all makes it an improvement on most years. Definitely wouldn't sleep on the animated movies though, they both seem to have very good buzz. Those three movies combined honestly could make for a pretty big box office month.

[thajdikt]

13 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

kind of a harsher drop than expected but should still get over 600m 

600M? 600M is locked. It lost PFL’s screens. Hardly a surprising drop. Only question is over under Barbie. I’m taking under for now.

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

So Jurassic World is safe?

 

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Labor Day expansion might get it over I think 

Lemme see if I can predict where it will go:

Start with $639 million

Week of August 16: $5.3 million

Week of August 23: $3.2 million

Week of August 30: $8 million (labor day expansion)

 

after that it drops like a crater.

 

That's a total of $655.5 million at the end of the Labor day week, so it depends heavily on the labor day expansion.

[emoviefan]

14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

kind of a harsher drop than expected but should still get over 600m 

Considering it lost all it's remaining PLF's to Romulus not really that harsh a drop and Disney wins either way.  

[Liiviig 1998]

DP3 is getting over avengers.

 

Barbie ehh not sure.

 

4th weekend 33.8

5 -21.03m

6-15mish

Labour day wknd -10/13.44m

 

Barbie  had  really strong holds post it's fourth weekend.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, thajdikt said:

600M? 600M is locked. It lost PFL’s screens. Hardly a surprising drop. Only question is over under Barbie. I’m taking under for now.

The drop was expected. I still think the JW comp is quite useful for Deadpool & Wolverine, even if this weekend is exactly where that film got the 4th of July weekend jumps (July 3rd was Friday, and that film grossed $11.8m Fri, $8.5m Sat and $8.8m Sun). It’s tracking slightly below JW but JW had much more steep competition here forward. It will be interesting to follow.

[baumer]

40 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

That's perfect. That's exactly what I was hoping it went gross yesterday. That puts it on track to gross between 26 and 27 million.

[emoviefan]

With Romulus looking kind of frontloaded and even with good WOM with it's core audience it could have a hefty drop next weekend and neither of next weekends big new movies looking to blow up , next weekend could be the first weekend with no movie doing over 20 million since the last weekend of May. I hope there  are no meltdowns or anything around here. As has been pointed out Sept is looking pretty good right now so it may just be a 2 week lull.

Edited August 17 by emoviefan

[baumer]

25 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

kind of a harsher drop than expected but should still get over 600m 

 

What are you talking about dude? That's an 80% jump on Friday from thursday. That's better than openheimer did last year on the same date. It's on Pace for about 27 million dollars this weekend.

[titanic2187]

Quote

PLF and Imax are accounting for 52% of ticket sales so far for an audience that’s very dude at 70% male, 25-34 being the biggest demo at 33% with 18-34 attending at 60%

 

Not a very healthy female %, especially for a movie with horror elements. This could explain why the frontloadedness.

 

21 hours ago, TomThomas said:

The movie and perfomance were so good it overcame genre bias. It would've gotten Best Picture nomination if it was released today, maybe Best Director as well, bias against sci-fi, horror and foregin films was too strong back then, so Weaver getting an acting nom for it is a miracle indeed.

 

Actually for a sci-fi horror, aliens overperform at the Oscar with 7 nominations. Almost like a Mad Max fury road of 1980s.

[WorkingonaName]

39 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

So Jurassic World is safe?