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CJohn

Frozen OS thread

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Looks like LA will be massive for Frozen. 500M OS is looking very likely with a shot at 550M so beating DM2 WW is a possibility. 

 

IMO it will need close to 600M OS to beat DM2. DM2 is at 918M and with Olive seeing some hype for it in China I see it making 950M WW. So I dont see it beating DM2 unless you are seeing 400M domestic. 

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IMO it will need close to 600M OS to beat DM2. DM2 is at 918M and with Olive seeing some hype for it in China I see it making 950M WW. So I dont see it beating DM2 unless you are seeing 400M domestic. 

 

I've it doing 385-390M right now so yeah 400M domestic is a distinct possibility. 

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I've it doing 385-390M right now so yeah 400M domestic is a distinct possibility. 

It needs around a 5x multiplier from a projected 21M weekend to even struggle to 385. Not going to happen with January's weak dailies, some competition coming in 2 weeks and Lego opening at the beginning of February.

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IMO it will need close to 600M OS to beat DM2. DM2 is at 918M and with Olive seeing some hype for it in China I see it making 950M WW. So I dont see it beating DM2 unless you are seeing 400M domestic. 

I think in 370's domestic is looking very likely, with higher numbers possible. Going with my low end of 370, it needs just 550 or so OS to pass DM2's 918. Getting a release in China is just the boost Frozen needs. China + Japan should be enough to put it past 550, with 600+ in the cards if it really breaks out in 1 or both markets. Other decent size markets left to open are S. Korea and Sweden (Tangled did 8.1 in Sweden, I can't see Frozen doing less, especially with the Nordic theme).

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I think in 370's domestic is looking very likely, with higher numbers possible. Going with my low end of 370, it needs just 550 or so OS to pass DM2's 918. Getting a release in China is just the boost Frozen needs. China + Japan should be enough to put it past 550, with 600+ in the cards if it really breaks out in 1 or both markets. Other decent size markets left to open are S. Korea and Sweden (Tangled did 8.1 in Sweden, I can't see Frozen doing less, especially with the Nordic theme).

 

DM2 is also opening in China soon, so the total Frozen will need will be close to or beyond 600 OS.

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Frozen opened in six Latin American territories, including a #1 debut in Brazil ($4.2M weekend, $5.9M including previews) that accounts for the market's highest Disney/Pixar premiere of all time. The film posted the second biggest Disney/Pixar debut of all time in Argentina with a $2.8 million bow

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