Weekend Estimates (8/3-5/12): TDKR @ #1 w/ $10.4m Fri/35.5 wknd, TR: $9.2m/24.5 (Boxoffice.com est.)

[DAR]

Wimpy Kid franchise may not knock it out of the park, but it's always a solid performer

[FTF]

lol, the 1pm pst ranges are the best (ie worst).

[#ED]

I read the article and I don't think she says it will. If it opens to a 10-12 mill Friday and TDKR is close behind, TDKR will be guaranteed to win.

Good, now I can get some sleep tonight.

[MovieMan89]

Wimpy Kid franchise may not knock it out of the park, but it's always a solid performer

Yes, very consistent. Shows that it's retaining its audience from movie to movie for the most part.

[Mango]

The only way Total Recall might beat The Dark Knight Rises this weekend is if TR ends up on the higher end of the estimate ($12.5m) and TDKR ends up on the low-low end ($9.5m) AND TR somehow gets around it's horrible word of mouth and have a good hold tomorrow with both films having similar Sunday drops.

Basically that is the absolute best case senario for TR and worst case senario for TDKR. Only way it could happen.

[ecstasy]

How are any of the openers over performing? What did you guys expect TR to do....22 mill? And Wimpy is on track for 17-20. The other two averaged about 22 mill, so how is this film over performing?

I don't get it.

A lot of people did. Even Boxoffice.com predicts 23m for the weekend.

Could still happen but the early numbers indicate more. Now if these numbers stick, (big if) it will be better than a lot of people predicted recently.

[blackspider]

Why wouldn't TR win Friday? I don't see why it wouldn't?

TR is far from a lock to win the Friday. I'd give the edge to TDKR because we know based on its dailies it should be looking at a 10m+ Friday. TR is a wild card that could go above it or it could fall short.And considering its only 3 pm here I'd say there's a lot of things that can happen between now and the end of the night.

[baumer]

Then I'm a little surprised that under 20 was thought for TR.

[junkshop36]

Wimpy Kid franchise may not knock it out of the park, but it's always a solid performer

Yep, very consistent. I think they're actually pretty good too. Just watched the second one the other night.TR might win Friday but TDKR will win the weekend.

[Jordanstine]

Don't forget, Total Recall is playing in 15% less theaters (over 600 less than Dark Knight Rises).

Total Recall could have the chance to really win the Friday numbers...

But Dark Knight Rises should win the overall weekend numbers...

[hasanahmad]

Heaven forbid tr does well on od then falls back to tdkr

[#ED]

TDKR needs $32M for $350M...

[Jonwo]

Wimpy Kid has a loyal audience, for each film to open to $20m OW is impressive and given its low cost, I imagine a fourth film will be greenlit. How many Wimpy Kid books are left to adapt?

[iceroll]

Wimpy Kid has a loyal audience, for each film to open to $20m OW is impressive and given its low cost, I imagine a fourth film will be greenlit. How many Wimpy Kid books are left to adapt?

Not to mention startling consistency in Rotten Tomatoes and imdb scores:

 

 

Movie:	Wimpy 1	Wimpy 2	Wimpy 3
Rottentomatoes.com	53%	47%	51%
imdb.com	6.1	6.3	5.5

 

[John Marston]

if TDKR makes only 8m that would be bad right?

[MrPink]

if TDKR makes only 8m that would be bad right?

Yes, but it's also incredibly unlikely to happen, so...let's just wait and see when we get something more accurate.

[Cedarpoint1111]

Good for TDKR, meh for TR. Its shaping up to be the 3rd mega bomb of the year.

[Jonwo]

I imagine the next Wimpy Kid film will get a August release next year, the first two films had March releases and this is the first summer one although I imagine it'll be mid to late August to avoid competition from Turbo and Smurfs 2.

[Captain Craig]

For all those who keep saying/thinking TR will do bad are you just basing this on the crap RT score?I saw it and expect it to have at the worst modestly fair WOM. It was a fun film. I wouldn't be shocked if it saw an increase marginally on Saturday.

[Captain Craig]

The only way Total Recall might beat The Dark Knight Rises this weekend is if TR ends up on the higher end of the estimate ($12.5m) and TDKR ends up on the low-low end ($9.5m) AND TR somehow gets around it's horrible word of mouth and have a good hold tomorrow with both films having similar Sunday drops.

Basically that is the absolute best case senario for TR and worst case senario for TDKR. Only way it could happen.

The only horrible WOM is from prissy critics on RT and of course folks like yourself who keep flaming nonsense when you haven't seen the movie to actually have an informed opinion.

I don't fully expect the truth of this film to come to light until Monday when people get back to work/school.