Olive Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 ‘The Expendables 2′ Atop Crowded Box Office With $11.5M Friday/$30M Weekend Despite Bomb Scare, ‘Bourne Legacy’ $5.4M/$17.2M, ‘Paranorman’ $5.3M/$15.3M, ‘Sparkle’ $5.0M/$15.5M numbers coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 FRIDAY PM: What a crazy day. First, a consulting firm Screen Engine poll finds 17% of filmgoers are still reluctant to head to theaters, only slightly better than the 21% recorded four weeks ago right after the Aurora movie theater shooting. (The surveys found that teenagers, particularly females, were most reluctant to go to the movie now.) Then came this morning’s bomb scares phoned into the Carmike Cinema chain, no more Olympics, and still weak late screenings. The result is that domestic box office grosses have been all over the place. Matinee trends and early evening numbers are no longer a reliable predictor of Friday outcomes. When I saw weekend estimates for The Expendables 2 from Sylvester Stallone swing nearly $10M in just a few hours, I waited for clarity. There are also unusually good CinemaScores for the newcomers which will help word-of-mouth: Millenium/Lionsgate’s #1 film The Expendables 2 snags ‘A-’ from audiences, Sony’s #3 Sparkle gets an ‘A’, and Focus Features’ #4 Paranorman scores ‘B+’. Add in strong holdovers The Bourne Legacy from Universal in #2 place and The Campaign from Warner Bros in #5 (both down only -53% from last weekend), and it’s a crowded but good $125M weekend – +5% from last year. Refined numbers and full analysis in the morning. Here’s the Top Ten based on Friday estimates: 1. The Expendables 2 (Millenium/Lionsgate) NEW [3,316 Runs] R Friday $11.5M, Weekend $30M 2. The Bourne Legacy (Universal) Week 2 [3,753 Runs] PG13 Friday $11.5M, Weekend $30M (-53%), Cume $69.8M 3. ParaNorman (Focus Features) NEW [3,429 Runs] PG Friday $5.5M, Weekend $15.3M 4. Sparkle (Sony) NEW [2,244 Runs) PG13 Friday $5.0M, Weekend $15.5M 5. The Campaign (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,255 Runs] R Friday $4.3M, Weekend $13.1M, Cume $51.4M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harpospoke Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Wait....some are still trying to say the shootings are keeping people from going to the movies? Really? What was stopping people from going to see Dark Shadows, MIB3, and Battleship? And Brave...didn't that underperform too? Maybe people were having psychic premonitions about the shootings before they happened and stayed home? Well if you look at the facts, it's plain and simple that it would have. Actually there's no reason to believe it wouldn't have. It's Beating TDK or coming very close to it in every market on the planet? It's silly to suggest that the only exception is the place, where it's the most popular. Given the months poor box office, TDKR's run is very impressive. No reason to believe TDKR would make less than TDK? Suppose a person suggested that Batman movies without the Joker make less than Batman movies with the Joker? Would you say that's valid? The history of the Batman franchise is right there to look at if you don't believe it. And that's just one reason. There are also these: No epic crowd-pleasing performance from the actor playing the villain No Heath Ledger death to fuel hype No 94% RT score Online piracy is worse today than 2008 TDKR is a longer movie TDKR had to follow a massive hit movie which just happened to be a super hero movie 2012 audiences may not be in the mood for "dark" with the economy continuing to suck None of those are reasons? They sure look like good ones to me. And I can't think of any that would suggest TDKR should have made more than TDK. Even inflation couldn't make up that difference all those combined factors amount to. One could even say TDKR should not make 450m....so maybe the shootings are helping its box office. If TDKR was destined to make more than TDK....shouldn't its legs be better than TDK? Not seeing that happen, are we? Why would it have worse drops if it was somehow going to do better than TDK? Where exactly are the unusual box office happenings? Looks pretty normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 What a shitty weekend for TE2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTX Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 TDKR was never going to make 500 mill. This has been discussed over and over and over and over. It's not as well liked, its not as revered, there's not death of a major actor and there is no oscar winning performance. Doing 440 mill is about 20-30 mill less than it would have done max.My opinion of course, but I'm right. What a lame comment. The shooting cost it 20-30M on the OW alone. Multiply that by 2.8M, and that's the impact over the course of TDKR's entire run - around 70M.Don't use this depressed market to justify your bullshit predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 1. The Expendables 2 (Millenium/Lionsgate) NEW [3,316 Runs] R Friday $11.5M, Weekend $30M 2. The Bourne Legacy (Universal) Week 2 [3,753 Runs] PG13 Friday $11.5M, Weekend $30M (-53%), Cume $69.8M 3. ParaNorman (Focus Features) NEW [3,429 Runs] PG Friday $5.5M, Weekend $15.3M 4. Sparkle (Sony) NEW [2,244 Runs) PG13 Friday $5.0M, Weekend $15.5M 5. The Campaign (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,255 Runs] R Friday $4.3M, Weekend $13.1M, Cume $51.4M Nice one, Nikki. A 53% drop would be around 18m, which would be a great hold, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Great for TBL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 What a lame comment. The shooting cost it 20-30M on the OW alone. Multiply that by 2.8M, and that's the impact over the course of TDKR's entire run - around 70M.Don't use this depressed market to justify your bullshit predictions.PLEASE. STOP.ALL OF YOU. You guys are arguing hypotheticals which means no one is winning this argument. Please let it go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 LOL. Did she really just cut and paste the same weekend for Bourne as TE2? Nikki Nikki Nikki. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 What a shitty weekend for TE2Yeahh..Looks like OS has to make up for DOM once again..I still can make 300 mill WW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 LOL. Did she really just cut and paste the same weekend for Bourne as TE2? Nikki Nikki Nikki.Lazy Lady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beyondboxoffice Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Nice one, Nikki. A 53% drop would be around 18m, which would be a great hold, IMO.It's a typo in the body of the text. The headline has Bourne at $5.4M/$17.2M. Looks like a "Copy & Paste" error from E2 to BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 (edited) If Bourne drops anything less than 60% i'll be bodrerline impressed given the WOM it supposedly had. Edited August 18, 2012 by Hatebox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 It's a typo in the body of the text. The headline has Bourne at $5.4M/$17.2M. Looks like a "Copy & Paste" error from E2 to BL.17.2 would be a 55% drop, not 53%...so that is not a typo...just a mathematical error. Too much Franzia I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Paranorman's numbers going up and down and up and down. Should stay above Coraline's numbers so healthy for it.Sparkle, lol, talk of a $40m OW and etc back when Houston died. And those polls, really, teenagers are scared of going? That's surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I knew Expendables wasn't breaking out from the first film. I predicted $28m and that's looking close. Glad its not a blockbuster, for me one of the least appealing films of the year. Aside Ghost Rider 2 and Taken 2, of course.Solid, if unremarkable, for Sparkle and Paranorman.Sparkle only cost $14m. But I think its opening weekend will be frontloaded, I don't see it reaching a 3X multiplier. More like $12m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Rth, can you tell us how did other holdovers increase on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 If TDKR made 180m opening weekend the same multiplier it had right now would have given it 500m. The people who say it had no chance to reach that mark have no idea what they're talking about! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 But when a movie opens higher, it won't get the same multiplier as when it opens lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rthmessiah Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Quick note see how it looks later but Exp2 10-11m, BL 4.5-4.8,Para 4-4.5, Spar 4.2-4.6Exp2 10.5, BL 5.5, Spark/Para 4.5, Camp 4.2, OLT 3.3, TDKR 3, HS 2.8, DOWK3 1.1, TR 1.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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