Jake Gittes Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I'm definitely seeing a Beasts run for it at this point. With a fairly weak field, Arquette can get in. I think she could actually win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 There are more biopics released each year than superhero movies.True story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 There are more biopics released each year than superhero movies.True story. So..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChD Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 There are more biopics released each year than superhero movies.True story. I'll never be able to look at movies the same way from now on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 From most to less probable [*]Boyhood – it’s not the frontrunner, but it has critic raves, media resonance, a strong theme, and it is already a BO success. Plus Linklater has forged a very respectable career. Momentum for him is really high. [*]Birdman – the first frontrunner. It has critic raves, a fantastic cast, a praised Director, a shining comeback to get a lot of media attention, and it deals with a theme AMPAS really love. It only needs BO to ensure a spot and (who knows) maybe a win. [*]Unbroken – not yet seen, but has many things on its side. Jolie career and strong position in the industry, WWII, Sports, inspiring biopic, epic scale spectacle, December opening… Media attention is ensured, and won’t have to fight against backlash as much as other contenders. It could have a spot even with not so glowing reviews. [*]Foxcatcher – last year it was already in the conversation. Momentum has aged, but it already has many pros: Bennet Miller, a surprisingly strong performance (AMPAS like to recognize surprises), it’s a biopic, and the cast and release schedule will help. [*]Lost girl – even with Millennium, Fincher was very close to receive a nomination. This one may be a genre film, but the source in which it’s based is rich and subtle enough to expect a really solid and popular film. It will need the support of the GA. [*]Into the woods – musicals are well respected by AMPAS. Plus, the cast and the source screams “nomination!”, even by default despite not being perfect. It will need to be a BO success also in an oversaturated Holidays schedule. [*]Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson’s film always have a legion of supporters. Cast is stellar and the premise is appealing. But it needs to really deliver. [*]Big Eyes – You never know with Tim Burton, but it’s a biopic, it has Amy Adams and Waltz, it’s distributed by Weinstein, and the release schedule strategy has worked very well in the past. [*]Interstellar – AMPAS like Nolan films, but history reminds us that they don’t like them that much. Add in AMPAS usually dismiss science fiction, and you’ve got one of the great ifs of the year. If it has enough human resonance and is a huge hit, it should get in easily. [*]A tie between Selma, Turner and The Imitation Game. Selma really needs to be inspiring, Turner needs to find traction, and The imitation game premise is appealing, but the Director is not a sign of quality. And we know how Enigma turned to be. Other contenders: Wild – if it turns to be like Into the Wild… Reese comeback? But despite the hype, All is lost failed to get traction. Theory of everything – But there are too many biopics right now, and many with more hype and bigger names involved. The Judge – it could very well surge and find traction. Fury – trailer helped to raise expectations. WWII is always a theme AMPAS like. Exodus – Will it be a disaster like Kingdom of Heaven or The Messenger, a disappointment like Robin Hood or Prometheus, or a hit like…? Well it’s been a long time since Ridley Scott did a good movie… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted August 30, 2014 Author Share Posted August 30, 2014 A lot of people I know at church are saying that the book of Unbroken is fantastic. My mom loves it also. Anyway I'm predicting that and Gone Girl to be the front runners right now.Also going off the every other year a 100M film wins........ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 From most to less probable [*]Boyhood – it’s not the frontrunner, but it has critic raves, media resonance, a strong theme, and it is already a BO success. Plus Linklater has forged a very respectable career. Momentum for him is really high. [*]Birdman – the first frontrunner. It has critic raves, a fantastic cast, a praised Director, a shining comeback to get a lot of media attention, and it deals with a theme AMPAS really love. It only needs BO to ensure a spot and (who knows) maybe a win. [*]Unbroken – not yet seen, but has many things on its side. Jolie career and strong position in the industry, WWII, Sports, inspiring biopic, epic scale spectacle, December opening… Media attention is ensured, and won’t have to fight against backlash as much as other contenders. It could have a spot even with not so glowing reviews. [*]Foxcatcher – last year it was already in the conversation. Momentum has aged, but it already has many pros: Bennet Miller, a surprisingly strong performance (AMPAS like to recognize surprises), it’s a biopic, and the cast and release schedule will help. [*]Lost girl – even with Millennium, Fincher was very close to receive a nomination. This one may be a genre film, but the source in which it’s based is rich and subtle enough to expect a really solid and popular film. It will need the support of the GA. [*]Into the woods – musicals are well respected by AMPAS. Plus, the cast and the source screams “nomination!”, even by default despite not being perfect. It will need to be a BO success also in an oversaturated Holidays schedule. [*]Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson’s film always have a legion of supporters. Cast is stellar and the premise is appealing. But it needs to really deliver. [*]Big Eyes – You never know with Tim Burton, but it’s a biopic, it has Amy Adams and Waltz, it’s distributed by Weinstein, and the release schedule strategy has worked very well in the past. [*]Interstellar – AMPAS like Nolan films, but history reminds us that they don’t like them that much. Add in AMPAS usually dismiss science fiction, and you’ve got one of the great ifs of the year. If it has enough human resonance and is a huge hit, it should get in easily. [*]A tie between Selma, Turner and The Imitation Game. Selma really needs to be inspiring, Turner needs to find traction, and The imitation game premise is appealing, but the Director is not a sign of quality. And we know how Enigma turned to be. Other contenders: Wild – if it turns to be like Into the Wild… Reese comeback? But despite the hype, All is lost failed to get traction. Theory of everything – But there are too many biopics right now, and many with more hype and bigger names involved. The Judge – it could very well surge and find traction. Fury – trailer helped to raise expectations. WWII is always a theme AMPAS like. Exodus – Will it be a disaster like Kingdom of Heaven or The Messenger, a disappointment like Robin Hood or Prometheus, or a hit like…? Well it’s been a long time since Ridley Scott did a good movie… You forgot American Sniper. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Clint Eastwood's on a big-time cold streak. He has to earn his way in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilderic Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 (edited) From most to less probable [*]Boyhood – it’s not the frontrunner, but it has critic raves, media resonance, a strong theme, and it is already a BO success. Plus Linklater has forged a very respectable career. Momentum for him is really high. [*]Birdman – the first frontrunner. It has critic raves, a fantastic cast, a praised Director, a shining comeback to get a lot of media attention, and it deals with a theme AMPAS really love. It only needs BO to ensure a spot and (who knows) maybe a win. [*]Unbroken – not yet seen, but has many things on its side. Jolie career and strong position in the industry, WWII, Sports, inspiring biopic, epic scale spectacle, December opening… Media attention is ensured, and won’t have to fight against backlash as much as other contenders. It could have a spot even with not so glowing reviews. [*]Foxcatcher – last year it was already in the conversation. Momentum has aged, but it already has many pros: Bennet Miller, a surprisingly strong performance (AMPAS like to recognize surprises), it’s a biopic, and the cast and release schedule will help. [*]Lost girl – even with Millennium, Fincher was very close to receive a nomination. This one may be a genre film, but the source in which it’s based is rich and subtle enough to expect a really solid and popular film. It will need the support of the GA. [*]Into the woods – musicals are well respected by AMPAS. Plus, the cast and the source screams “nomination!”, even by default despite not being perfect. It will need to be a BO success also in an oversaturated Holidays schedule. [*]Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson’s film always have a legion of supporters. Cast is stellar and the premise is appealing. But it needs to really deliver. [*]Big Eyes – You never know with Tim Burton, but it’s a biopic, it has Amy Adams and Waltz, it’s distributed by Weinstein, and the release schedule strategy has worked very well in the past. [*]Interstellar – AMPAS like Nolan films, but history reminds us that they don’t like them that much. Add in AMPAS usually dismiss science fiction, and you’ve got one of the great ifs of the year. If it has enough human resonance and is a huge hit, it should get in easily. [*]A tie between Selma, Turner and The Imitation Game. Selma really needs to be inspiring, Turner needs to find traction, and The imitation game premise is appealing, but the Director is not a sign of quality. And we know how Enigma turned to be. Other contenders: Wild – if it turns to be like Into the Wild… Reese comeback? But despite the hype, All is lost failed to get traction. Theory of everything – But there are too many biopics right now, and many with more hype and bigger names involved. The Judge – it could very well surge and find traction. Fury – trailer helped to raise expectations. WWII is always a theme AMPAS like. Exodus – Will it be a disaster like Kingdom of Heaven or The Messenger, a disappointment like Robin Hood or Prometheus, or a hit like…? Well it’s been a long time since Ridley Scott did a good movie… I think you are seriously underestimating The Imitation Game. The director may not have a long filmography but Headhunters was well-received. Cumberbatch is clearly liked in the business (Emmy win). Harvey Weinstein is behind it and it's getting increasingly clear this is going to be his main horse. It's a biography. About a WW2 hero, with the anniversary of its end being next year. Also a genius having a big place in the development of computer technology. And a compelling and tragic downfall, made even more so given the nature of the crime (they can mention the recent royal pardon at the end). The movie seems tailor-made for Oscars. I can't see how Big Eyes (which got mixed reactions at the screenings), Into the Woods (Marshall hasn't had a well-received movie in a decade) or Interstellar (not usual AMPAS fare, as you yourself point out) can be ahead of it. Even Inherent Vice may be less sure, given the rumours about its tone. EDIT: Reception at Telluride seems good: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/telluride-benedict-cumberbatch-leads-weinsteins-729266 The Imitation Game certainly came into the Telluride Film Festival with a lot of buzz but it will be leaving here with even more, thanks to a very well received world premiere on Friday evening at the Werner Herzog Theatre. http://www.thewrap.com/benedict-cumberbatch-steals-the-show-from-reese-witherspoon-and-jon-stewart-in-telluride/ The man who might have gotten the biggest boost from Friday's opening of the Telluride Film Festival, Benedict Cumberbatch of “The Imitation Game,” wasn't even there to enjoy his acclaim. But his ears were surely burning, because his film opened to the kind of near-universal kudos that nearly eclipsed the somewhat mixed reaction to the day's other bows. Edited August 30, 2014 by Hilderic 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 I could definitely see Imitation Game dallas buyers clubbing its way in. Though I'd be surprised if it actually won anything, but hey it's Harvey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Imitation Game feels very much like its all Cumberbatch. DBS at least had Leto and a message/story that was more inspirational and modern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 A lot of people I know at church are saying that the book of Unbroken is fantastic. My mom loves it also. Anyway I'm predicting that and Gone Girl to be the front runners right now.Also going off the every other year a 100M film wins........ Dang, Boyhood is in trouble then... However it may just be Nolan's year with Interstellar! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I think you are seriously underestimating The Imitation Game. The director may not have a long filmography but Headhunters was well-received. Cumberbatch is clearly liked in the business (Emmy win). Harvey Weinstein is behind it and it's getting increasingly clear this is going to be his main horse. It's a biography. About a WW2 hero, with the anniversary of its end being next year. Also a genius having a big place in the development of computer technology. And a compelling and tragic downfall, made even more so given the nature of the crime (they can mention the recent royal pardon at the end). The movie seems tailor-made for Oscars.I can't see how Big Eyes (which got mixed reactions at the screenings), Into the Woods (Marshall hasn't had a well-received movie in a decade) or Interstellar (not usual AMPAS fare, as you yourself point out) can be ahead of it. Even Inherent Vice may be less sure, given the rumours about its tone.EDIT: Reception at Telluride seems good:http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/telluride-benedict-cumberbatch-leads-weinsteins-729266http://www.thewrap.com/benedict-cumberbatch-steals-the-show-from-reese-witherspoon-and-jon-stewart-in-telluride/ Ok! Early buzz is convincing me to raise TIG position in the ranking. But I'm still skeptical for its chances, because it's an already seen story and the "hero" spends most of the time behind a desktop trying to decypher a code. It will be tough to gain the GA interest. Big Eyes got early mixed reactions? Didn't know that! I made a brief research and didn't found anything when I made the list. Inherent vice tonal rumours are that, rumours. There's also a rumour that it's really good and auterish. We'll see, but it's PTA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 You forgot American Sniper. I would add it below Fury but over Exodus After Jersey Boys, an Eastwood movie cannot be considered a strong pre-contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 At this point I think this one is between Birdman, Boyhood, Unbroken, and Gone Girl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 At this point I think this one is between Birdman, Boyhood, Unbroken, and Gone Girl. Or Interstellar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Or Interstellar. Or Foxcatcher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I would add it below Fury but over Exodus After Jersey Boys, an Eastwood movie cannot be considered a strong pre-contender. ...and J. Edgar, and Hereafter 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Foxcatcher seems like exactly that kind of movie to me that scores plenty of nominations and maybe a win or two, but not the big one. It certainly doesn't look like a mainstream hit in the making (see: Unbroken, Gone Girl) and at the same time it doesn't have a big special element that makes it stand out enough from the artier pack (see: Boyhood with its whole conceit and execution, Birdman with its whole crazy style and meta elements, past winners like The Artist, 12YAS and The Hurt Locker). It looks like it will be a perfectly respectable BP nominee but not a big winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I think it's safe to say Wild is out of the race and Mr Turner has a chance for a nom. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
