Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[lorddemaxus]

I'd say there definitely was a massive jump between Avatar and the clip I saw. Just in terms of lighting, 2nd film is a different beast (also much better lit for 3d this time).

[cdsacken]

On 9/30/2022 at 11:44 AM, Deuce66 said:

If $650 million domestic is the number and Avatar can maintain its traditional 30/70 split with Int'l it should easily crack $2 billion worldwide before China. 

 

avatar had the luckiest exchange rates ever 1st time around. Now they are horrific. It's gonna to take at least 500m just from that.

[Deuce66]

42 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 

avatar had the luckiest exchange rates ever 1st time around. Now they are horrific. It's gonna to take at least 500m just from that.

 

I would like to see someone actually do the math on that (late 09/10 avg. exchange rates) versus 2022.

 

I looked at France as an example, that $174,376,309 USD gross from very late 2009-March 2010 turns into $122,063,416 USD today, a loss of $52.3 million. I don't think ticket price inflation is going to make up the difference, more data needed (# of tickets sold & average price of tickets in 2022 vs 2009/10). 

[hw64]

40 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

I would like to see someone actually do the math on that (late 09/10 avg. exchange rates) versus 2022.

 

I looked at France as an example, that $174,376,309 USD gross from very late 2009-March 2010 turns into $122,063,416 USD today, a loss of $52.3 million. I don't think ticket price inflation is going to make up the difference, more data needed (# of tickets sold & average price of tickets in 2022 vs 2009/10). 

 

Avatar had an ATP in France of around €8.35; Avatar 2 will likely have an ATP in France of around €10 or more (the re-release on opening weekend had an ATP of around €13, for comparison). It doesn't make up all of the difference, but that ticket price inflation would add an extra $24.2m to Avatar's gross in France, offsetting the exchange rate loss by around half.

 

It's a similar story in pretty much every other country, and indeed certain countries have seen far higher ticket price inflation — Avatar 2's ATP in places like India and Brazil will likely be double that of Avatar, and in extreme examples like Argentina which has seen massive inflation over the past decade or more, Avatar 2's ATP will likely be 30-35x that of Avatar. These kind of levels of ticket price inflation are why adjusting for exchange rates alone is an extremely inaccurate representation of how much Avatar's gross would suffer in today's market conditions.

 

I've done the calculations myself for every relevant box office market, and Avatar gains hundreds of millions from ticket price inflation which partially, but certainly not fully, offsets the exchange rate differences. Add in market expansion, and Avatar 2 is in a better position than Avatar with regard to unadjusted dollar gross, i.e. Avatar 2 can be significantly less successful in real terms (market expansion-adjusted ticket sales) than Avatar and still make more in unadjusted dollar gross.

Edited October 2, 2022 by hw64

[Deuce66]

Domestic weekend drop 55.4% - total domestic $18.6 million 

 

 

[Deuce66]

Worldwide gross for Avatar just cracked $2.9 Billion. 

 

[WittyUsername]

2 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

Domestic weekend drop 55.4% - total domestic $18.6 million 

 

 

Not too shabby. I’d take that as a win. 

[Elessar]

On 8/24/2022 at 11:23 AM, Elessar said:

Titanic 3D's DOM gross = Avatar 4K WW gross?

 

Assuming it stops playing in a few days i'll not be too far off.

 

$3b WW would have been such a nice milestone. Maybe in another 10 years...

 

 

[SchumacherFTW]

Doesn't look like Avatar is getting any kind of extension here in the UK

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Doesn't look like Avatar is getting any kind of extension here in the UK

Same in the US.

[JustLurking]

They're pulling it everywhere I think. Extremely dumb considering the numbers but it is what it is.

[IronJimbo]

12 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

They're pulling it everywhere I think. Extremely dumb considering the numbers but it is what it is.

 

they do what they like I suppose... impossible to predict the marketing for this film

[Aristis]

Avatar was like 5% down in second WE in Germany. Not to extend it is just stupid. 

[SchumacherFTW]

Always leave them wanting more.... 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I imagine contractual obligations with Amsterdam are preventing an extension. That one's set for this Friday, right after Avatar's run ends.

[GOGODanca]

 

[Potiki]

Avatar 1 seems to have been extended here in NZ as well now has listing through the next week (Tuesday) although they lost PLF at least at my local, now only 1 showing of standard 3D from Thursday onwards. 

[Borobudur]

8 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

 

Completely justified, the 2nd weekend drop was only 52%, a very good hold for a re-release. and this coming is a Columbus weekend. 

[Valonqar]

So now that BPWF trailer is out of the way, Avatar 2 trailer will be next likely with tickets going on sale like BPWF. 

[IronJimbo]

39 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

So now that BPWF trailer is out of the way, Avatar 2 trailer will be next likely with tickets going on sale like BPWF. 

when you do reckon? in a week? end of oct? the week before BP2?

 

this is so hard to predict