Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Issac Newton]

Avatar 2 will have Frontloaded audiences, due to multiple delays, &also, It's the most anticipated film, Chinese audience wanted to watch, so I don't see why $500M OW isn't happening. Yeah, I see disagreement with its OW because we are still months away from its premiere but still World is going to witness the biggest Global OW, since Avengers: Endgame.

[Elessar]

9 hours ago, Olive said:

Titanic re release made 150m 9 years ago

 

This isn't an argument for Avatar 2 making bazillion bucks in China but Titanic was a 3D remastered, advertised worldwide "event", whereas Avatar was a last minute addition, low-key affair.

[Borobudur]

On 12/28/2021 at 3:39 AM, JamesCameronScholar said:

B... but no one remembers Avatar!

If anyone writes off Avatar 2 simply because no one cares Avatar anymore, please remember both Titanic and Avatar are original movie that no one have the capacity to care until their release and that went on becoming highest grossing film. 

[Grebacio]

After so long, this is the first time ever we can say "Avatar 2 is coming this year"

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Grebacio said:

After so long, this is the first time ever we can say "Avatar 2 is coming this year"

 

True. Given the fact that JC and crew have already started promotion on it, I guess it's finally real in 2022. 

[TomCruiseTop]

I hope we all get to quote that Japinder post 'that is impossible'. With a big smirking Jim face.

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

I hope we all get to quote that Japinder post 'that is impossible'. With a big smirking Jim face.

 

It'll probably do like $485M and then he can say, "See. I told you $500M was impossible!"

[YM!]

A part of me wonders if Avatwo will get a China release considering it’s get much harder to get a China release for Hollywood stuff now.

[AniNate]

Encanto is getting a China release, unless there's some new massive covid crisis there in a year I can't imagine why they'd hold back on Avatar

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Encanto is getting a China release, unless there's some new massive covid crisis there in a year I can't imagine why they'd hold back on Avatar

 

The only reason I would see (if China is releasing HW films at that time) is because they don't want anything that could challenge a Chinese film for highest grossing in China. 

[poweranimals]

35 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Encanto is getting a China release, unless there's some new massive covid crisis there in a year I can't imagine why they'd hold back on Avatar

Didn't stop them from banning Marvel for reasons that are still unclear.

[WittyUsername]

1 minute ago, poweranimals said:

Didn't stop them from banning Marvel for reasons that are still unclear.

My best guess is that it had something to do with the drama regarding Chloe Zhao and Eternals. 

[poweranimals]

Just now, WittyUsername said:

My best guess is that it had something to do with the drama regarding Chloe Zhao and Eternals. 

It makes no sense to ban everything Marvel though over one movie.

[WittyUsername]

25 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

It makes no sense to ban everything Marvel though over one movie.

This is the Chinese government we’re talking about.

[Deuce66]

Let's play a little game, would you pick the OVER or UNDER when it comes to beating Avatar's gross of $2,847,246,203

 

I'm going with the under for several reasons.

1- the first movie is ranked #1 to 3 in 39 countries, this type of performance will be extremely hard to match let alone surpass

2- the Domestic market - I suspect that Avatar's themes will entrench the division between the blue team and the red team, I think the risk of a significant box office drop is high

3- China is a wildcard and also the #1 seed when it comes to countries with room for tremendous growth in $$$ 

4- Other countries with significant upside include Turkey/UAE/Finland/Russia/Japan/India/Thailand/Singapore/Malaysia/Philipines/Indonesia/Vietnam and most of South America 

5- The state of COVID, will Omicron be the last significant variant? unlikely although I think this most recent surge will be over and done by late April at the latest

 

I think Avatar II will do very well, enough for Disney to green light the completion of IV and V but it won't set a new record. 

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, Deuce66 said:

Let's play a little game, would you pick the OVER or UNDER when it comes to beating Avatar's gross of $2,847,246,203

 

I'm going with the under for several reasons.

1- the first movie is ranked #1 to 3 in 39 countries, this type of performance will be extremely hard to match let alone surpass

2- the Domestic market - I suspect that Avatar's themes will entrench the division between the blue team and the red team, I think the risk of a significant box office drop is high

3- China is a wildcard and also the #1 seed when it comes to countries with room for tremendous growth in $$$ 

4- Other countries with significant upside include Turkey/UAE/Finland/Russia/Japan/India/Thailand/Singapore/Malaysia/Philipines/Indonesia/Vietnam and most of South America 

5- The state of COVID, will Omicron be the last significant variant? unlikely although I think this most recent surge will be over and done by late April at the latest

 

I think Avatar II will do very well, enough for Disney to green light the completion of IV and V but it won't set a new record. 

 

 

 

Under. I have it doing very well, but even with a full China release I think it tops out around $2.5B or so. Without China, I think it'll do somewhere around $1.8B

Edited January 2, 2022 by RiddlerXXR

[TomCruiseTop]

1 hour ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

Under. I have it doing very well, but even with a full China release I think it tops out around $2.5B or so. Without China, I think the max is somewhere around $1.8B

If it does this it has lost over 20% alone to inflation x exchange rates under 1.5B is an unmitigated disaster.

 

Also to anyone not understanding why the CCP would hate Marvel movies - they are American propaganda at its finest. They have characters that are unapologetically pro-americana.

 

Whereas with Avatar, Jim can hand wave that it's a NZ co-production and that the stated themes are decidedly anti-American (e.g. anti-imperialism).

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

If it does this it has lost over 20% alone to inflation x exchange rates under 1.5B is an unmitigated disaster.

 

Also to anyone not understanding why the CCP would hate Marvel movies - they are American propaganda at its finest. They have characters that are unapologetically pro-americana.

 

Whereas with Avatar, Jim can hand wave that it's a NZ co-production and that the stated themes are decidedly anti-American (e.g. anti-imperialism).

 

In several countries it's going to fall against the dollar because of the ER by a large amount. Russia, Italy, Spain will all be lucky to do half of what they did (in USD) for Avatar. Realistically it'll probably be closer to a 60% drop. Europe as a whole will likely be cut in half. Australia will likely fall at least 40%. Japan could replicate what the first did, but almost every sequel in Japan falls from the first. I expect it to drop at least 30% there. Domestically, it's going down 20-30%. SK may stay flat. Brazil may also. 

 

What's going to balance this out is newer markets like Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, etc. Mexico and India can also see 20-50% increases. Then of course, China is the big dog. A2 should be able to do at least 3x Avatars first run in China and maybe upwards of 5x. 

 

So yea, I feel like $1.65-1.85B without China is a realistic target. China can do anywhere from $500M to $1B. 

[Elessar]

2 hours ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

In several countries it's going to fall against the dollar because of the ER by a large amount. Russia, Italy, Spain will all be lucky to do half of what they did (in USD) for Avatar. Realistically it'll probably be closer to a 60% drop. Europe as a whole will likely be cut in half. 

 

Inflation pretty much cancels out the ER difference.

 

It will probably drop because it'll sell less tickets but i doubt to the tune of 60%.

Edited January 2, 2022 by Elessar

[JonahVex]

Good reception and strong box office even if its significant under Avatar is fine as long as Cameron can deliver the sequels in timely manner, he says basically every 2 years from now to the end in 2028, if he can deliver what we expect then i can't imagine the numbers by the end