Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

How much is TFA gross adjusted to inflation? I need Avatar to beat that or otherwise inflation adjsutement will always be dangled to dispute its dominance.

hard to say.

Isn't it trolling to adjust TFA using Avatar 2 average ticket prices. When Avatar 2 will be selling a bigger percentage 3D and PLFs. Please don't tell me all the adjusted figures online do garbage like this and don't account for much.

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

 

I mean the films going to make 2-3bil anyway, with 2bil being locked imo.

Sure waiting 5 years would mean the film probably grossing even more, but it would also mean the chance of Cameron directing 4 and 5 would be near zero imo.

 

I'd rather take what we are getting with a roughmarket to release into, but that will also mean probably more chance of A3 doing even better.

[IronJimbo]

I feel like i've made so many predictions I don't even know what my current prediction is. So I'll just list simple constants

 

>$1b DOM
>$2b OS-China
+ China, prob 500m but I have nothing to go off here.

 

I predict more than this but not many people are prepared to go this high so I still win if I say these numbers and it underperforms to my expecatations.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

25 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

OK hypothetical question here-

 

Imagine Covid never happend, imagine exchange rates were as good as back in the first films days, and imagine the film getting a full and proper China release with no tampering.

 

Under those circumstances, anyone think this could have grossed 4bil worldwide?.

If A2 hits $2.8B under current circumstances, that would be akin to $4B under the circumstances you outlined.

 

24 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

How much is TFA gross adjusted to inflation? I need Avatar to beat that or otherwise inflation adjsutement will always be dangled to dispute its dominance.

 

Assuming the same number of tickets sold and in the same format ratio it would be about $1.15B or so.

[hw64]

40 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

#1 in calendar 22’ and 23’ worldwide

 

Yeah that's very likely actually now that we've got day-and-date in China. Helped by a relatively weak 2023 in terms of top-gross potential, but still. First time in movie/box office history.

[hw64]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

hard to say.

Isn't it trolling to adjust TFA using Avatar 2 average ticket prices. When Avatar 2 will be selling a bigger percentage 3D and PLFs. Please don't tell me all the adjusted figures online do garbage like this and don't account for much.

 

You have to give The Force Awakens the win here, because it's the reality — The Force Awakens sold significantly more tickets (circa-90m range) than Avatar 2 will sell, and Avatar will almost certainly never be as big a franchise domestically as Star Wars was at its peak. You've got to give the respect where it's due.

 

If you want to flaunt a Jim win, then you can always hold onto the fact that Titanic sold significantly more tickets domestically in its initial theatrical run than any Star Wars movie except A New Hope, and significantly more tickets than even A New Hope in its initial theatrical run. And that Avatar itself, despite its relative domestic weakness, is very nearly on par with The Phantom Menace, one of the most hyped movies of all time, in ticket sales domestically.

Edited December 8, 2022 by hw64

[Valonqar]

Yeah TFA really profited from getting OT trio aboard. That kind of nostalgia won't be replicated unless RDJ and EVans return as Iron Man and Cap 20 years from now.

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

You have to give The Force Awakens the win here, because it's the reality — The Force Awakens sold significantly more tickets (circa-90m range) than Avatar 2 will sell, and Avatar will almost certainly never be as big a franchise domestically as Star Wars was at its peak. You've got to give respect where it's due here.

 

If you want to flaunt a Jim win, then you can always hold onto the fact that Titanic sold significantly more tickets domestically in its initial theatrical run than any Star Wars movie except A New Hope, and significantly more tickets than even A New Hope in its initial theatrical run. And that Avatar itself, despite its relative domestic weakness, is very nearly on par with The Phantom Menace, one of the most hyped movies of all time, in ticket sales domestically.

 

I'm a little confused with this post. I'm talking box office not ticket sales.

If Avatar 2 sells 100% 3D for example, and TFA sold 100% 2D for example. You can't adjust TFA by inflation using Avatar 2's average ticket price. It's an error.

Edited December 8, 2022 by IronJimbo

[CaptNathanBrittles]

10 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

The avatar franchise ending with a super preachy "the book of Merlyn from the once and future king book series"-type final chapter sounds pretty rad

 

He says "by 5" so not necessarily in 5.

[hw64]

19 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

I'm a little confused with this post. I'm talking box office not ticket sales.

If Avatar 2 sells 100% 3D for example, and TFA sold 100% 2D for example. You can't adjust TFA by inflation using Avatar 2's average ticket price. It's an error.

 

If you're talking adjusted box office, then you're talking ticket sales.

 

And that's not an error — adjusting box office gross by normalizing two movies' ticket prices gives you a figure that's directly proportional to ticket sales, which is the most direct measure of the popularity of a movie.

 

I know exactly what you're getting at here Jimbo, and there's definitely an argument to be made that a movie that sells tickets at a higher price (at least insofar as that higher price isn't simply a result of just the general inflation of movie ticket prices) is a better financial product than a movie that sells tickets at a lower price, but it really depends on what you're interested in here, because a movie's ability to generate revenue and a movie's popularity are both valid measures of success.

 

But honestly, though. Likely $3b+ worldwide, highest grossing film of all time three times in a row, can you really ask for more? Going after The Force Awakens domestically in adjusted success (however you want to adjust it) seems a bit greedy. Avatar 2 doesn't need to (and can't) break every record.

Edited December 8, 2022 by hw64

[JustLurking]

TFA was pretty nuts in english-speaking markets. Not the same impact overseas, but it's a well deserved DOM record. One of the most impressive single-market runs imo, though definitely not the most impressive.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

How much is TFA gross adjusted to inflation? I need Avatar to beat that or otherwise inflation adjsutement will always be dangled to dispute its dominance.

Nobody cares about adjusted grosses. People only use that stuff to dogpile on movies they hate and brag about how their movies actually sold more tickets and is actually more successful. So tiring.

[NCsoft]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

But honestly, though. Likely $3b+ worldwide, highest grossing film of all time three times in a row, can you really ask for more? Going after The Force Awakens domestically in adjusted success (however you want to adjust it) seems a bit greedy.

 

My preferred way of adjusting gross is really  just go by (gross/average ticket price of year of release)*(average ticket price of current year), doesn't give us data on real admission, but admission relative to a average ticket of that year based on film's gross, gives proper advantage to PLF ticket premiums.

I think even calculating that way, TFA domestically is like $100M ahead of Avatar, Avatar probably has slight advantage over Endgame; Avatar is luckier in the sense that it got to claim domestic crown for 6 years, Endgame always be in the shadow of TFA...

 

[filmlover]

Don’t know if this had been posted but:

 

 

‘Avatar’ To Make Broadcast TV Debut Ahead Of ‘Way Of Water’ Release https://t.co/dVkSs83K55

— Deadline Hollywood (@DEADLINE) December 7, 2022

[Valonqar]

13 minutes ago, Eric Dielman said:

Nobody cares about adjusted grosses. People only use that stuff to dogpile on movies they hate and brag about how their movies actually sold more tickets and is actually more successful. So tiring.

 

Very true!

[hw64]

1 minute ago, NCsoft said:

My preferred way of adjusting gross is really  just go by (gross/average ticket price of year of release)*(average ticket price of current year), doesn't give us data on real admission, but admission relative to a average ticket of that year based on film's gross, gives proper advantage to PLF ticket premiums.

I think even calculating that way, TFA domestically is like $100M ahead of Avatar, Avatar probably has slight advantage over Endgame; Avatar is luckier in the sense that it got to claim domestic crown for 6 years, Endgame always be in the shadow of TFA...

 

That's a perfectly valid way of measuring overall success and gives credit to a movie for being able to sustain ticket sales at higher ticket prices than the movies released directly around it (which ticket sales comparisons don't), and it does that while also mostly accounting for general ticket price inflation.

 

I personally don't care for it — I'm not particularly interested in a movie's ability to generate revenue and I'm more interested in a movie's popularity with audiences, which is why ticket sales is my measure of choice.

 

As I say, both are perfectly valid measures, the only problem is when someone tries to claim that one or the other is the objectively right way to measure success.

[IronJimbo]

44 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

If you're talking adjusted box office, then you're talking ticket sales.

 

And that's not an error — adjusting box office gross by normalizing two movies' ticket prices gives you a figure that's directly proportional to ticket sales, which is the most direct measure of the popularity of a movie.

 

I know exactly what you're getting at here Jimbo, and there's definitely an argument to be made that a movie that sells tickets at a higher price (at least insofar as that higher price isn't simply a result of just the general inflation of movie ticket prices) is a better financial product than a movie that sells tickets at a lower price, but it really depends on what you're interested in here, because a movie's ability to generate revenue and a movie's popularity are both valid measures of success.

 

But honestly, though. Likely $3b+ worldwide, highest grossing film of all time three times in a row, can you really ask for more? Going after The Force Awakens domestically in adjusted success (however you want to adjust it) seems a bit greedy. Avatar 2 doesn't need to (and can't) break every record.

 

Which goes directly back to me talking about box office, not popularity. A film could do it's entire run at half price but what would be the point in that. You could sell 10m tickets free as part of a special promotion and you're not going to account for that in ticket price inflation?

This isn't about Avatar 2 vs TFA to me. I've just come to the realisation that most adjusted figures are even more whack than I thought.

Also disagree it's completely an error and makes no sense, if you sell a DIFFERENT product it needs to be accounted for.

 

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by IronJimbo

[mikeymichael]

1 billion domestic. Whew. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Any guess how much Avatar: The Way of Water can gross on it’s Opening Day? Around similar numbers to how the first film made on it’s Opening Weekend or higher than that?

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Any guess how much Avatar: The Way of Water can gross on it’s Opening Day? Around similar numbers to how the first film made on it’s Opening Weekend or higher than that?

Full DOM OD? $70-75M is my prediction.