Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[4815162342]

Most likely smaller because I remembered JC saying that with Avatarhe had to start from scratch.

Agreed. Cameron had to have technology invented for Avatar, so the cost for the film includes the whole R&D process and working out the kinks during post-production. For the sequel that technology can be refined and improved with much less cost and effort since the foundation is already there.

[Cochofles]

500 million opening weekend/thirty trillion total :-)

[Cochofles]

200 m OW/800 m total

[Mattrek]

I'd also add the lack of novelty.I'm leaving it open, giving it 5% odds.

Well at least you're open to the possibility. Novelty will be there with a whole new world to explore.

[Mattrek]

I don't think it does less than 600. We're talking about a rather significant drop off from the first when people are saying it could barely cross 500m. The movie would have to be pretty bad quality wise to see that massive of a drop.I do think it will drop from the first but I think it will manage to gross somewhere around 650m, give or take a few mill.

Actually most (including myself) had it under 350m.

[Mattrek]

Official budget figure is about $230m, if i remember correctly. I think the budget for the sequels will be bigger as they are pretty much always.

I thought it was more 400m.

[Mattrek]

Agreed. Cameron had to have technology invented for Avatar, so the cost for the film includes the whole R&D process and working out the kinks during post-production. For the sequel that technology can be refined and improved with much less cost and effort since the foundation is already there.

Agreed, the budget should be much less for the 2nd.

[Elessar]

I thought it was more 400m.

The budget for “Avatar,” a Fox spokesperson bluntly told TheWrap this week, “is $237 million, with $150 million for promotion, end of story.”

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/true-cost-and-consequences-avatar-11206?page=1

[Fake]

I think I might have the smallest difference in my Avatar and Avatar 2 predicts:Avatar - 440MAvatar 2 - 505M

[Mattrek]

I think I might have the smallest difference in my Avatar and Avatar 2 predicts:Avatar - 440MAvatar 2 - 505M

Let's see if they're both equally as far off

[Fake]

Let's see if they're both equally as far off

Or maybe one of the closest predicts here on BOM.

[geekfreek]

First of all, I think we need to stop comparing the drop off rate from Avatar 1 to Avatar 2. Those who are thinking that A2 can't possibly gross less than $500M because the drop off would be too steep need to consider what the original film was: an absolute PHENOMENON in pop culture that completely changed the way we think about filming and viewing movies. It was completely new and groundbreaking: as every "all time top grossing" movie before it in the past 35 years has also been. We simply cannot compare drop off rates like we did from DMC to AWE or Matrix Revolutions to Matrix Reloaded. This is completely different and unlike any sequel we've ever been able to predict in our lifetime. The closest thing would be to look at comparing the original Star Wars and Empire Strikes Back, but even that is a huge stretch because it's from a completely different era of film and box office. We just simply CANNOT look at drop offs of previous sequels and draw comparisons, much like we couldn't compare the original Avatar to anything else back in 2009/2010. With that being said, there is no doubt in my mind Avatar 2 will CRUSH the opening weekend record... Whatever it might be at the time. This should easily push $200M. With the holidays, it will hold fairly stable - though still experience much, much heavier drops than its prequel - and probably collapse after New Years. As we are discovering more and more with box office, films are opening bigger and bigger and dropping faster and harder after opening day/weekend. In that sense, as a highly anticipated massive sequel, Avatar 2 will follow a slightly more "normal" trend because it won't be the new, fresh thing it was when the first one came out.OW: $200MDOM: $500MOS: $1.3BWW: $1.8BNo doubt I'll change these 2 years from now, but I just can't see this exploding like the last one did. $1.8B should not, by anyone for any reason, be seen as a disappointment. That is a huge number and something only 2 other films before have achieved! It would be BEYOND incredible of Avatar 2 managed to outdo the original at the box office.

[Fake]

Totally agree with the reasoning behind the final totals, GeekFreek, but I think opening will be much softer. A lot of families will prefer to just wait a week and catch it during Christmas.

Edited November 16, 2011 by Fake

[vc2002]

OW: $200MDOM: $500M

This could only happen if the sequel turns out like a piece of shit. Otherwise I failed to see how A2, despite being released in Dec which is a good timing for legs, could have a poor 2.5 mutiplier which is worse than summer anticipated sequels or threequels like TDK, DMC, Ironman2, Shrek3 or TS3. And to think about it, some of them were considered as major disappointments, and they had a better multiplier than Avatar 2?Also, 200m OW seems a bit off as well. As plenty have explained, even for very anticipated sequel like A2, it's hard to get an extremely high OW right before Christmas holidays.So GeekFreek, no offense but for me, your prediction just doesn't make sense. Edited November 16, 2011 by vc2002

[vc2002]

DP.

Edited November 16, 2011 by vc2002

[Totem]

130m/550m1.7B OS2.2B WWCannot freaking wait to track this thing.

[geekfreek]

vc2002, (sorry, I can't quote on the mobile version of this board), of those movies only TDK and DMC could be used to compare. TS3 and Shrek 3 were animated family-friendly films and act completely different at the box office. Iron Man 2 doesn't even come close to the scale of gross that we're talking about. DMC and TDK both were OW breakers so they're worth comparing. TDK was a universally praised film that was extremely successful at the BO, but also went against any usual trends. It was a BO exception, not a rule. DMC came out in 2006. Avatar 2 will be coming in 2014 (maybe). Especially in the past couple of years we have started to really see OW figures jump and multipliers come out less and less. I don't think we can reasonably compare DMC to Avatar 2 for that reason. A 2.5 multiplier does seem low, but it's becoming somewhat "normalized" figure for big name sequels and, in some cases, is starting to be looked at as "decent legs". 5 years ago, a 2.5 multiplier was considered awful. Even during the incredibly strong holiday season, I can't help but feel the film will open huge and just drop hard. It's a trend that's become more and more common: the bigger a movie opens, the harder it falls.Maybe the opening is a little on the high side for Christmas, but when was the last time a truly massive sequel opened up during that time slot? ROTK? Although it opened on a Wed, it's 5 day opening was the 3rd biggest at the time (with a running time of 3 hrs. 20 mins.) and does show that audiences will turn up in droves for a massive sequel regardless of the time of year. Plus, being a sequel, with nearly all viewings going to be in 3D, and inflation in 2014, I don't think $200M is that unattainable. Even if does open softer... Say to the tune of $180M, it will just spread out its early earnings over the first week or 2 and end up with the same result: $550M.

[Neo]

GeekFreek, movies that open big tend not always to have small multipliers. Also Matrix and Pirate examples were from 2nd to 3rd movies while this will be 1st movie to 2nd movie.

[Cochofles]

If Cameron somehow manages to do his well-documented sequel magic:180-200 opening weekend.800-850 domestic3.5 billion worldwide

[Elessar]

Good luck with that. I mean it. I want it to do that. But it won't.