Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

They don't hate now, but everyone trash Titanic in the 00's. This only stop when it lost it's #1 position on box office and hating it wasn't cool anymore. 

 

Honestly it's not much different than what happen with Avatar, i doubt people trully hate this movie, this not only have insane legs back in the day but it's also massive on home video, got very succesful cirque du soleil spectacles and one of the most hyped rides on Disney parks right now, you don't achieve this if people reject it. 

 

People trash it on internet because it's cool, because everyone does. The movie have it's problems, the script is simplistic, but honestly, pretty much all the movies on the top 40 biggest grosses have similar problems. The jokes people do now about basic script and Pocahontas plot, it was the exact same jokes people did in 2009 and that didn't prevent it to break records.

 

What I get from this is that when avatar 2 becomes 1 ww people will stop hating on 1

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Just wondering, who is "we all"?

 

Outside of one, maybe two individuals, i don't think anyone expects 10x legs or even close.

 

But i'd agree with hw64 that TFA's legs are not best case scenario since it won't open that high either.

 

Yes, it is obviously a select few that are being absurd with the legs around here.  My argument is that until we get other data points, why should we assume it's going to behave THAT differently?  

[hw64]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

Did I say it couldn't have better than average legs?  I said it wasn't getting close to Avatar's 10x, which it's not.  

 

Ya'll think it's going to behave exactly like his last two for some reason when his last two are literal decades ago.  Movie going habits have changed, a lot.  You don't have to like them, that's just how it is.  If the trailer gets fans hyped, they will rush to see this ASAP. The more people rush to it, the shorter the legs are.  

 

You said that the best case scenario for Avatar 2 is TFA-type legs with an upper 3x multiplier, discounting any possiblity that it can exceed TFA's multiplier by any significant margin.

 

Movie-going habits have changed immensely — in fact, they'd changed immensely from 1997 to 2009, but that didn't stop Avatar from having by far the best-in-class legs for a 2000-2015 blockbuster, much like Titanic had by far the best-in-class legs for a 1990-2005 blockbuster. Titanic's 21x raw multiplier was an impossibility for Avatar for the exact reasons you list, but despite the fact that the mutiplier for Avatar dropped by a large margin from Titanic, the strength of the legs for both films — taking into account the market conditions at the time of each film's release — was quite similar.

 

Avatar 2 can be to Avatar what Avatar was to Titanic. Once again, the cinematic landscape has changed immensely, and Avatar 2 will ostensibly be opening significantly higher than Avatar, limiting its multiplier. Despite that, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 4x, 5x, possibly even up to 6x multiplier for Avatar 2 depending on how high it opens, which would be by far the best legs for a modern $100m+ opener. The 13-year gap and the fact that Avatar's audience was largely made up of general audiences rather than a specific fanbase will play as strengths to its legs.

 

Again, you can't be constrained by the "possible" with a James Cameron epic of this ambition and magnitude, as both Titanic and Avatar showed. Otherwise, you'd be concluding in 2009 based on precedent that there's no way Avatar (or any other movie) could exceed a 5 or 6x multplier in the current climate, which it obviously did by a wide margin.

[hw64]

7 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Yes, it is obviously a select few that are being absurd with the legs around here.  My argument is that until we get other data points, why should we assume it's going to behave THAT differently?  

 

For the record, I'm not asking you to assume that Avatar 2 will have anomalous legs — you're obviously free to make your own predictions, and not everyone is going to have the same confidence in James Cameron as a lot of us do.

 

What I'm asking you to do is to not discount the possibility entirely, because history tells us that that's unwise, and if you'd have constrained yourself by the realm of "possibility" with Titanic and with Avatar, you'd have been very, very wrong.

Edited April 10, 2022 by hw64

[Deep Wang]

11 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

For the record, I'm not asking you to assume that Avatar 2 will have anomalous legs — you're obviously free to make your own predictions, and not everyone is going to have the same confidence in James Cameron as a lot of us do.

 

What I'm asking you to do is to not discount the possibility entirely, because history tells us that that's unwise, and if you'd have constrained yourself by the realm of "possibility" with Titanic and with Avatar, you'd have been very, very wrong.

 

I'm not discounting the possibility at all!  There will always be exceptions to the rule, I'm just not assuming it will happen as you seem to be.   I can totally handle being very, very wrong.  The question is if you can.

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, AnDr3s said:

the fact that this sub has over 1000 pages and the movie still doesn't have a trailer is hilarious 

 

Well, it was created over ten years ago when this forum was first opened, lol.

 

I went back through it a bit for some nostalgia. The development hell was quite the ride. So many "production starting in two months" rumors.

[lorddemaxus]

3 hours ago, wintersoldier2021 said:

Most people prefer a movie actually have a good story to go with the effects

Considering that both the stories and the effects of blockbusters have gotten worse since Avatar, I don't think thats true.

[excel1]

Still have no idea how this is going to go. It will be big but the range is huge.

[Tarintino]

5 hours ago, wintersoldier2021 said:

Most people prefer a movie actually have a good story to go with the effects

Avatar had a good story, it was just recycled, much like every superhero movie which audiences still love

[Tarintino]

5 hours ago, Maggie said:

So, are the usual suspects in this thread really fans of the movie Avatar or just Jim nuts who are “required” to like Avatar just because they like Jim so much? If it where directed by anyone else, would they still go crazy for Avatar, the movie?

The issue here is, no-one other than Cameron could have made Avatar, or make it look as good anyway. Most directors would rather relesse 5 films in a ten year span rather than spending all their time on perfecting 1 movie

[Tarintino]

3 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

Oh, this is a huge mistake. We should know by now that trying to constrain the future box office performance of a James Cameron movie based solely on prior precedent is incredibly unwise.

 

Outside of Avatar with its 9.73x multiplier, the biggest multiplier for a movie opening over $50m with a conventional Friday opening day is Jumanji: The Next Level's 5.41x multiplier off of its $59.25m opening weekend, which Avatar nearly doubled despite opening 30% higher. The Phantom Menace (6.65x), Independence Day (6.10x) and The Two Towers (5.48x) all had higher multipliers than Jumanji, but they also all opened on a Tuesday or a Wednesday, which burned off demand for their actual opening weekends and significantly skewed their opening weekend multipliers upwards.

 

So basically, no movie in Avatar's opening weekend class is even close to it in terms of legs. To suggest that The Force Awaken's 3.78x multiplier is somehow going to be a ceiling for Avatar 2, despite the fact that it's going to open significantly lower than TFA and despite the fact that the last two James Cameron epics are incredible outliers in terms of legs, I think is very naive.

I honestly dont think it opens lower, especially with inflation the past few years. We've never had a sequel to a movie this big before so the OW will be a wild card. If the movie delivers then I think it opening around 290m and eyes up a 4x multi. 

[wintersoldier2021]

You people act like the judgement of the Internet isn't the overall decider of a movies fate 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

7 minutes ago, wintersoldier2021 said:

You people act like the judgement of the Internet isn't the overall decider of a movies fate 

hahahahahhahahahahahahhahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahaha

[interiorgatordecorator]

29 minutes ago, Tarintino said:

I honestly dont think it opens lower, especially with inflation the past few years. We've never had a sequel to a movie this big before so the OW will be a wild card. If the movie delivers then I think it opening around 290m and eyes up a 4x multi. 

 

I'd be ok with that

 

And besides, its not like that (290 x 4 =1160) would be a ridiculously crazy number, it's pretty much around the range of what avatar 1 admits for avatar 2 would get you (not just inflation but many other factors)

Though I do have to wonder if there are enough 3d screens for a 290 million opening, id be more comfortable saying 220 with a 5x multiplier 

 

Of course these are scenarios in which almost everything goes right, bull would be term id use (not yet ultrabull), but if any movie can do it it's a supposedly-revolutionary-13-years-in-the-making-james-cameron-movie

 

 

Edited April 10, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[YM!]

17 minutes ago, wintersoldier2021 said:

You people act like the judgement of the Internet isn't the overall decider of a movies fate 

Ah yes like how MoM is doomed from the under 2.5 hour runtime.

[Brainbug]

21 minutes ago, wintersoldier2021 said:

You people act like the judgement of the Internet isn't the overall decider of a movies fate 

 

If this is sarcasm: relatively good post.

 

If this is serious: Legendary and hilarious post.

[Deep Wang]

23 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Before I knew I was going to CinemaCon, I fully planned to go to a Dr Strange 2 showing (if the trailer does debut before it) at midnight and walk out once the A2 trailer had shown.

 

Edit: teaser not trailer, I don't believe Jim is going to let the trailer ride ahead of another hypergonadal male fantasy.

 

 

Do you remember when this happened by the way?

[TomCruiseTop]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

Do you remember when this happened by the way?

No, I first saw the trailer on Apple trailers, and then participated in the 'Avatar Day' stuff they ran where they showed 16 mins of the film. I didn't realise they used this giant screen - what date was this shown? Was this a Dirt Bike day or something like that?

[Deep Wang]

21 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

No, I first saw the trailer on Apple trailers, and then participated in the 'Avatar Day' stuff they ran where they showed 16 mins of the film. I didn't realise they used this giant screen - what date was this shown? Was this a Dirt Bike day or something like that?

 

Nope, just your average American football game!

[Mau]

I know this will never happen, bc disney has to put it in theaters, and needs to share streaming with HBO MAX, but imagine if disney uses the same strategy as Encanto to boost susbcribers at disney plus by releasing avatar sequel 30 days after theaters debut