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Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | It's been 84 years... | Teaser trailer on pg. 1090! | First movie gets re-released September 23!

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On 6/22/2020 at 1:40 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

This should be pretty relevant for this thread. Assuming, we don't see a major drop in admissions for Avatar 2 from the original, which is frankly pretty unlikely. As you see, Toy Story is an established property, so it has pretty much eased itself in last 20 years, Avatar easing off will be much higher.

 

 

Avatar grossed $685 million in these five countries, the sequel should target $375 million I guess. Overall Europe was $1.2 Billion, I will be very surprised if 2nd cross $700mn.

People like you are going to make people like me seem like geniuses when Avatar 2 comes out.

 

I can't wait to hear the excuses "just lucky to be the first big film after Covid-19", "yeah just the perfect storm! Not impressive"

 

Yeah right, Jim is the perfect storm nothing else matters.

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Like after Endgame?

What are you saying, your prediction was far more accurate than mine? I don't even remember either of them but I'm guessing you said over Avatar worldwide and probably after the opening weekend.

 

I'm saying 4 billies, 18 months before the release. That's pretty much DOUBLE your prediction.

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4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You think it's possible that any of these sequels makes less than a bil???? (or all 4 exactly make 1bil)

I said it in jest, but yes i think the last sequels will drop big. I predict the last two  will make less than a billion. People will lose interest

Edited by Maggie
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5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I said it in jest, but yes i think the last sequels will drop big. I predict the last two (there are 4, right?) will make less than a billion. People will lose interest

forgive the star wars line but... "then you are lost"

 

I've littered this thread with reasoning why Avatar 2's gonna make the billies but he's the latest addition to the list.

 

https://www.parkdeanresorts.co.uk/amazing-memories/discover/every-countrys-favourite-disney-plus-film-revealed/

 

Bare in mind that Avatar has no sequels that have been released since and no mass merchandising or kids toys. Was simply a film released in 2009.


 

 

 

Edited by IronJimbo
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Just now, Maggie said:

@IronJimboHow much do you predict each sequel to make?

This is actually stretching my brain here, I normally focus on Avatar 2 and whatever comes after that is good.

 

Avatar 2 will make 4 billies, effective range 3.5b-4.5b, I'm expecting it to be the first movie to make a billion from a single market and it's not going to be the US.

 

What I know about the Avatar sequels

  • each film will be great as a standalone
  • overarching story which will have amazing payoff
  • quality of the films will be consistant
  • the technology will be insane
  • films are placed 2 years apart, 2021,2023,2025,2027.
  • Jim originally wanted the sequels to be released in pairs, 2020&2021 then 2024&2025

 

Assuming Jim doens't get his way and the movies stay in the alternating year format... let's see.

 

So the technology jump from the rest of cinema to Avatar 2 will be breathtaking, this film will literally be the most gourgeous thing you've ever seen and will give the same feeling Avatar gave in 2009 and then some. From Avatar 2 to Avatar 3 will be unnoticable, however from A3 to A4 could be some improvements but nothing as big as the A1->A2.


The quality of the films is consistant and people will NEED to see the next one, A3 won't be a sequel to a popular film, it will be the sequel to a film that made you shit yourself with your mouth wide open.

 

Got to factor in inflation and market growth between 2021 and 2027 also.

 

I think it's possible each film actually makes more than it's predecessor and we enter the era of Avatar, I'm reluctant to look at previous trends of franchises because they're quite different in scenarios.

 

 

A2 = 4 billies

A3 = -5% to +10% of A2

A4 = -5% to +10% of A3

A5 = 10% to +25% of A4

 

We're looking at the box office getting turned on it's head, we're looking at something bigger than Star Wars here.

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5 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

This is actually stretching my brain here, I normally focus on Avatar 2 and whatever comes after that is good.

 

Avatar 2 will make 4 billies, effective range 3.5b-4.5b, I'm expecting it to be the first movie to make a billion from a single market and it's not going to be the US.

 

A bold prediction. A 2019 ticket price, exchange rate and market expansion-adjusted Avatar would hover around the $3.5b mark. $4.5b would be Titanic tier.

 

The effects of ticket price inflation and market expansion since 2009 now significantly outweigh the exchange rate differences between today and 10 years ago. Given this, Avatar 2, if Jim can pull it off, has a very decent chance of becoming the highest-grossing film of all time in unadjusted gross; even if it's 15-20% less successful than the first, it will still comfortably surpass Endgame/Avatar 1.

 

Still, I'm nowhere near bold enough to predict a Titanic-level performance for Avatar 2. I'd love to see it happen, but Titanic was a once-in-a-century run. I can't imagine we'll see a movie that big again in our lifetimes, or ever.

Edited by hw64
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Assuming it gets a full and fair release in China (not getting pulled for political reasons like the first one), it should easily challenge Endgame's China # of $614.3 million. 

 

China: $775 million to $1 Billion 

Domestic: $800 million basically flat compared to A1 - politics in the country are so divided right now that I can see people not going to see it, depending on which side of the fence they are

Foreign: $1.5 Billion it should be able to pull similar numbers

 

Total estimate: just over $3 Billion - I would consider $1.5 Billion or lower a disappointment given the number of years Lightstorm/Weta put into this project. At minimum it will be state of the art visually, the eye candy alone will be a huge wow factor and the story from what I've heard is a possible mixture of Godfather/Lord of the Rings/Trail of Tears type elements, lots of treachery/betrayal/family problems etc....they spent a few years on those scripts. We know the humans come back and resettle (Hells Gate?), no doubt it wasn't done peacefully. I'm dying to see that first teaser/trailer/some actual artwork, hell at this point I'll take the official title, let's start with that. 

 

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Fanwars aside, my serious prediction for Avatar 2 will be as follow.

 

China: I know this is a wild card. The Hollywood box office in China has increased from 100mn admits in 2010 to 560mn last year though it peaked at 670mn in 2017 but people seems to assume that the biggest film increase is also at same rate. By 2017, the market increased for Hollywood films at 6.7x but biggest film increased by 2.8x only.Now there are two reasons for that, One the number of screens has increased manifold but population is still around the same. In 2010, Avatar would have released on 4000 screens only but had 75mn plus seats to fill in its run, so seats were still there and people were still there, but it had 26mn viewers & Two the market increased due to more films increasing and basically films which appeal was less in 2010 was getting more audience by 2017. The biggest Hollywood watched film in China is at 87mn, I don't think Avatar 2 will go much higher. Even if that 87mn is matched, the gross value is unlikely because Endgame had a fanbase to pay the high prices which general audience won't. The ATP in China is roughly ¥35-38, Endgame was ¥49. At 87mn, Avatar 2 will be at ¥3.3Bn approx i.e. $470mn. And frankly speaking I have my doubts on whether it can really go for 87mn. And regarding 3D, well 90% plus of box office is in 3D for almost all films, as 3D is force fed. So about $475mn (+/-20%).

 

USA: Avatar had 72mn viewers in USA/Canada. Now no film with 60mn plus viewers, had its sequel increase except Endgame but that was kind of like MCU thing, in time increasing. TDK sequel fell from 67mn to 50mn. JW sequel fell from 67mn to 42mn. TFA from 93mn to 62mn, so you get it. I don't think Avatar 2 will be exception either. Expecting at least 20% decline in viewership will account to 58mn at 2021 prices, which will be low post Covid and assuming a decent 3D share for 30-40%, well should be able to gross $625mn. If the WoM ain't great, which is unlikely though, I won't be surprised with similar to The Lion King numbers.

 

Europe: Now this is the region I expect a big drop. Two factors, one ER is shit and two viewership is down in majority countries with low inflation. Avatar had 93mn viewers in Europe which at Endgame ticket rates is about $810mn Approx as compared to $1.1Bn in 2009. Besides, I think it getting 75mn viewers will be a max. Expecting $650mn Approx.

 

Latin America: Now this is the market which will suffer be primarily due to exchange rates. Avatar grossed $152 million in this region but even at Endgame ticket rates, it is less than $130mn today. Endgame grossed $260mn in the region compared to $190mn of The Avengers, even though admissions almost doubled. I don't think Avatar 2 will be doubling its admissions, in fact Infinity War admissions is best it can hope for. I expect around $180mn with exchange rate even going shittier.

 

Asia-Japan: This will be the market which will see the growth. I can totally put Infinity War numbers for it here. Roughly 60mn admits and a gross of ~$325mn.

 

Japan and Australia: Well these two suffers from ER and not much of inflation with usual moviegoing decline. Japan is expected to gross $100mn while Australia shall be around $75mn.

 

Worldwide: $2425mn ($2000-2700mn)

 

That said, I don't see any reason that film fail to cross $2 Billion unless its shit or Post Covid nobody want to go to theaters and all. 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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nice detailed post @charlie Jatinder, try not to post as if those admission count numbers are anything other than your calculations, people may read your post thinking it's official numbers or something.

 

China: Underestimating how much the Chinese audience loved the first film. There's zero (0) % chance it makes less than Endgame barring some political nonsense where A2 is blocked in China. A small glimpse into that love? Check the Disney+ numbers Avatar is #1 by a landslide and Endgame isn't even in the top 10. Also underestimating what 210m looked like in the 2010 Jan Chinese market, that was triple the previous highest grossing film (300%+).

 

Latin America: No mention of the market growth in the Latin America regions in the last 11 years.

 

Obviously I have a difference in opinion in admissions in all your regions also.

 

 

 

 

Edited by IronJimbo
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43 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

try not to post as if those admission count numbers are anything other than your calculations, people may read your post thinking it's official numbers or something.

But those aren't just my calculations, except for North America & UK.  Whole of Europe, East Asia and Latin America track admissions. Those numbers are all actuals.

43 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

China

I know China is wild card, but I am taking almost 4x admissions of Avatar, when the business growth for Hollywood is about 6x. The much more credible number will be 75mn range admits instead.

43 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Latin America: No mention of the market growth in the Latin America regions in the last 11 years.

How else you think I put $180mn expectations. Avatar numbers are worth $130mn only today. Endgame had 35% growth in gross in Latin America despite almost 90% growth in admits. And it is plain obvious Avatar 2 ain't growing that much.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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19 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

A bold prediction. A 2019 ticket price, exchange rate and market expansion-adjusted Avatar would hover around the $3.5b mark. $4.5b would be Titanic tier.

 

The effects of ticket price inflation and market expansion since 2009 now significantly outweigh the exchange rate differences between today and 10 years ago. Given this, Avatar 2, if Jim can pull it off, has a very decent chance of becoming the highest-grossing film of all time in unadjusted gross; even if it's 15-20% less successful than the first, it will still comfortably surpass Endgame/Avatar 1.

 

Still, I'm nowhere near bold enough to predict a Titanic-level performance for Avatar 2. I'd love to see it happen, but Titanic was a once-in-a-century run. I can't imagine we'll see a movie that big again in our lifetimes, or ever.

 

I don't know enough about economics to comment properly on this but I do think you have a point!

 

This year has been crazy with COVID-19 and everything, loads of people I know have lost jobs and I heard the US is printing cash for days.

 

Not gonna lie I'm obv not an economist  tho to people talking about the economy going down and Avatar 2 being banned. I do think that we will see a really good environment for Avatar 2/3 to make money though, I don't know if Jim is a master of adapting to these kind of conditions or what but it's interesting that Avatar came after a big crash and looks like Avatar 2 might do the same. 

Edited by IronJimbo
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