STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS | 1131.6 M overseas | 2068.2 M worldwide

[Juby]

Thanks for answer.

 

So, $850-900 mln from current markets + $150-200 mln from China = $1-1,1 mld OS?

[Elessar]

Still believe in $1b OS without China at the least.

[titanic2187]

15 minutes ago, Onri said:

Looks like total collapse is only in Russia LOL
World, whats wrong with you? We are the country where even Victor Frankenstein, In the heart of the sea and The last witch hunter made money. And we totally ignore SW7 after it's (record) opening

what do u mean by collapse? 60% drop?

[Moses]

I think 1 billion plus 250 million china

850 Million dom

2.1 Billion total

[Juby]

$850 mln DOM? After this weekend i will say $900 mln is locked!

 

DOM - $900 mln

+OS - $1.2 mld

=WW - $2,1 mld

[Elessar]

Guys, $1b DOM is locked.

[PanaMovie]

I think

 

400M+ current markets and 150M+ from China

 

So around 1.1B OS 

[townzy89]

2 hours ago, Elessar said:

 

And TFA benefits from expanded markets.

 

What markets have expanded since 2009 drastically except China?... Russia a little?

 

Whereas in Australia

Avatar made $115mAUD = $105mUSD
Star Wars on Track for $120mAUD but only $85mUSD

 

Highest all time Australian movie but loses to Avatar by 20% because of the shitty exchange rates, extrapolate this across the world and instead of $1b os without China it would have been close to 1.3 - 1.4b and would have been very close to beating Avatar WW

 

 

[townzy89]

1 hour ago, fmpro said:

 

It wont get near 300 mill in China. Maybe half

 

On track for 150m OW in China

 

 

 

[Elessar]

14 minutes ago, townzy89 said:

 

What markets have expanded since 2009 drastically except China?... Russia a little?

 

Whereas in Australia

Avatar made $115mAUD = $105mUSD
Star Wars on Track for $120mAUD but only $85mUSD

 

Highest all time Australian movie but loses to Avatar by 20% because of the shitty exchange rates, extrapolate this across the world and instead of $1b os without China it would have been close to 1.3 - 1.4b and would have been very close to beating Avatar WW

 

 

 

Avatar would have probably made much more than $200m in China today. That alone might have made up for loss because of exchange rates.

[mepal1]

SWTFA is also doing amazing BO in the UK, setting records over the Xmas period as well, film is currently on around $97 mil, and will pass $100 mil in a days time?

 

Then its going to be chasing Titanic, Avatar, and the 2 Bonds Spectre and Skyfall, to become alltime champ here in the UK.

 

Current No.1 film Skyfall did around $160 mil in 2012

[Agafin]

On 12/26/2015 at 7:47 PM, titanic2187 said:

 

 

 

33 minutes ago, townzy89 said:

 

What markets have expanded since 2009 drastically except China?... Russia a little?

 

Whereas in Australia

Avatar made $115mAUD = $105mUSD
Star Wars on Track for $120mAUD but only $85mUSD

 

Highest all time Australian movie but loses to Avatar by 20% because of the shitty exchange rates, extrapolate this across the world and instead of $1b os without China it would have been close to 1.3 - 1.4b and would have been very close to beating Avatar WW

 

 

I totally agree, market expansion is a no factor here. There might be some markets which have expanded in local currency, but absolutely none other than China has expanded in US $. Most have dropped dramatically actually. Here are the exchange rates on 27/12/2015 and 27/12/2009:

http://www.x-rates.com/historical/?from=USD&amount=1&date=2015-12-27

http://www.x-rates.com/historical/?from=USD&amount=1&date=2009-12-2

 The Russian Ruble for example has collapsed (-58%) since then. TFA would have currently made 42.6m there, rather than 18m. Same with the Brazilian real (-55%), the Euro (-24%), the British Pound (-7%), the Australian dollar (-27%), the Japanese Yen (-24%) and many others. That means it has potentially made  $200mln less than it would have made with 2009 ER, just from these first twelve days.

[efialtes76]

42 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Avatar would have probably made much more than $200m in China today. That alone might have made up for loss because of exchange rates.

When Avatar was released in China the alltime number 1 was Transformers 2 with $66m.

Avatar did $204m and now the alltime number 1 is Monster Hunt with almost $400m...

[Elessar]

12 minutes ago, Agafin said:

I totally agree, market expansion is a no factor here.

 

It is a factor. No market has made strides like China but Latin America and some parts of Asia have grown. So just adjusting for exchange rates without taking that into account would be one sided.

[MattW]

 

Just guessed on the Saturday/Sunday split for both weekends.  Look about right? 

 

(dat cume on Saturday night....lol)

[Agafin]

28 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

When Avatar was released in China the alltime number 1 was Transformers 2 with $66m.

Avatar did $204m and now the alltime number 1 is Monster Hunt with almost $400m...

Not to take anything away from Avatar, but it ran for two months in China,...instead of the usual single month that movies like Monster Hunt or F7 had.

22 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

It is a factor. No market has made strides like China but Latin America and some parts of Asia have grown. So just adjusting for exchange rates without taking that into account would be one sided.

Just like I said, they grew in local currency only. A market like Brazil, Mexico or Russia would need to be literally bigger than in 2009 by a factor of 2 or 3 to offset the effect of ER. Is that the case? Of course no.

 

Also, TFA is more of a beast in mature markets than in expanding ones. Of its $544.6 million OS haul, about $389mln is from Europe+Australia+Japan. So with those market at least ( which make up over 70% of its current OS total ), adjusting for exchange rates only, is pretty fair.

[Poseidon]

3 hours ago, peludo said:

exchange rates 

 

I do not want to disminish what Avatar did. It was monstruous. But it is not an exact comparison.

 

Well, i was searching for pictures of Avatar-Tickets. Found 2. Same movie, same day, same time, same format (3D/2D/IMAX)
In both cases, the ticket for SW7 was $3,50 higher then it was for Avatar.

In Germany, you have at least another 2€ extra compared to back then.

 

So much for bad exchange rates.

 

Ticket Price Inflation after Avatar was ridiculous.

[rhsn]

It will do very well in China now that they have had the time to build up the hype. $300 million may very well happen there.

[peludo]

32 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

Well, i was searching for pictures of Avatar-Tickets. Found 2. Same movie, same day, same time, same format (3D/2D/IMAX)
In both cases, the ticket for SW7 was $3,50 higher then it was for Avatar.

In Germany, you have at least another 2€ extra compared to back then.

 

So much for bad exchange rates.

 

Ticket Price Inflation after Avatar was ridiculous.

But what was the 3D ratio for Avatar and which is for Star Wars? In last 6 years prices have risen, sure. But Avatar was mainly seen in 3D, what meant a huge difference. I can give you an example: in Spain the average ticket price for Avatar was €8.10 (77 million euros and 9.5 million admissions). 6 years later, the average ticket price of Star Wars is, for the moment, €7.19. With that average ticket price, Avatar would had grossed today €68 million, what means $74.45m (1€=1.09$), not the $110m (1€=1.43$) that it really did. $36m gap just in Spain...
 

But even if we consider just the 77 million euros it really did, that would mean today $84m, not the $110m reported. $26m gap in just one country. The proportion is, of course, the same for the rest of Eurozone countries. And the problem is more improtant in Australia, Russia, Brazil or Japan, where the loss of value of their currencies is about 50%. There has not been 50% inflation in last 6 years to compensate it. Not even close.

 

Another example. Avatar was estimated to have sold 76 million admissions in USA, so the average ticket price for it was $10. The average ticket price today is $8.34. With a lower 3D ration, average ticket price for Star Wars is, at most, similar than Avatar's, but not higher.

[Onri]

On 27.12.2015 at 10:58 PM, titanic2187 said:

what do u mean by collapse? 60% drop?

72% by estimates

 

 

 

	Moana	Frozen	Tangled
Previews	-	107 M₽	-
OW, ₽	335 M₽	332 M₽	277 M₽
OW, $	5,2 M$	10,2 M$	8,9 M$
Admissions (OW)	1,39M	1,38M	1,23M
Ticket price	241,6₽	241,7₽	226₽
Show times	38K	28K	N/A

Edited December 6, 2016 by Onri