Weekend Numbers Jan 23-25 pg 46(AS 64 mill, Mom's cookies 15)

[Donald]

To be honest I think As has a chance to hit 40mill next weekend.

And if it doesnt then look out for two back to back weekends over 30mil

Edited January 24, 2015 by Donald

[Donald]

The top film of last Friday (and quite obviously the weekend) was again Clint Eastwood’sAmerican Sniper. The Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc. release earned another$18.325 million yesterday, which was a Friday-to-Friday drop of just 40%. It has now earned $154m domestic, including$14.5m in IMAX alone. That’s also the biggest non-debut-weekend Friday in history for an R-rated film, easily besting the $13m second Friday ofThe Passion of the Christas well the over/under$10m second Fridays ofThe Matrix Reloaded, The Hangover part II,and300. Among R-ratedfilms that didn’t open ona Friday per-se, it comesits second Friday comes in just under the opening Fridays ofThe Passion of the Christ($22.9m),The Hangover part II($29.2m), andTheMatrix Reloaded($31.3m). If there was any question, it is now clear that, inflation and IMAX/PLF bumps notwithstanding,American Sniperis indeed playing like the (all due respect) second coming ofThe Passion of the Christ. As of now, it looks likeAmerican Sniper’s second weekend will end up a bit over $61 million, which would be a stunning hold of 31%. In terms of pure numbers, that easily bests the second weekend of Mel Gibson’s “last days of Jesus” drama from 2004.That film dropped 36% in 2004 from an $83m Fri-Sun debut (out of a$125m Wed-Sun debut) to a $53m second Fri-Sun weekend. It ended its twelfth day with $213m domestic whileAmerican Sniperlooks to end Sunday (its tenth day of wide release after a few weeks of super limited play) with $197m for theOscar contender. At this point, there is no point even discussing the performance of any filmother thanPassion of the Christas there is no R-rated film that even comes close to this kind of strength.If it makes it to $61m, it will be the eleventh-biggest second weekendin history ahead ofToy Story 3, a film that eventually crossed$400m domestic. If it makes it to $63m tomorrow, it jumps up abunch of spots (lots of$62m second weekends) and gets to be the eighth-biggest second weekend betweenAlice in Wonderland($62m) andSpider-Man($71m). In an era where openingat around $93m and only dropping 55% is considered leggy, it’s nice to be reminded what real strength beyond opening weekend looks like. Among the top 100 opening weekends, fromThe Avengers($207m) toMadagascar 2($63m), only twelve films have ever dropped less than 40%.They areAvatar(-1.8% of a $77m debut),Star Wars Episode One: The Phantom Menace(-20% off a $64m debut),The LEGO Movie(-28% off a$69m debut),The Incredibles(-28% off a$70m debut),Lord of theRings: The Return of the King(-30% off a $72m debut),Shrek 2(-33% offa $108m debut),Finding Nemo(-33% off a $70m debut),Up(-35% off a$68m debut),The Passion of the Christ(-36% off an $83m debut),Harry Potter andthe Sorcerer’s Stone(-36% off a $90m debut),Spider-Man(-37% off a$114m debut),Shrek Forever After(-38% off a$70m debut) have dropped less than 40%, let alone the over/under30% drop thatAmerican Snipermay post. And as you’ll notice seven of those titles were family-friendly/animated films heading into a holiday weekend.I think it is safe, especially with at least two weeks away from any serious competition (and that’s assumingSeventh SonandJupiter Ascendingrepresent serious competition), thatAmerican Sniperis all-but-certain to (in order of probability) cross $300m domestic, surpassThe Hunger Games: Mockingjay part I(which should end at around $340m domestic), and quite possibly topple the$377m total ofThe Passion of the Christto become the biggest-grossing R-rated movie ever in America.The Matrix Reloaded’s$742m worldwide total is still a question mark at this early stage. NowThe Passion of the Christearned around $494m in 2015 dollars andBeverly Hills Cop’s$234m total in 1984 would equal around$557m when adjusted for inflation, but that’s a conversation producers and studios dream about having.

This article sums it up nicely

[Donald]

Gitesh Pandya@giteshpandya5m

Terrible openings for new pics#Mortdecai&#StrangeMagicw/ $1.5M & $1.3M. Wknds shd reach dismal $4M & $5M.

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Edited January 24, 2015 by Donald

[TServo2049]

Holy fuck @ Strange Magic. If the $4.1M Deadline weekend estimate comes true, that will be the lowest-attended 3000+ location OW of all time.

$5m would still place it at #4 gross and attendance, behind only Fun Size, Hoot and The Seeker: The Dark is Rising, and worse than Meet Dave and What's Your Number.

Edited January 24, 2015 by TServo2049

[CelestialFairyIX]

I feel bad for Strange Magic... I'm hoping it at least passes $10 million although I'm sure it will struggle just to reach $7 million if it keeps up this agonizingly slow pace.

[filmlover]

I feel bad for Strange Magic... I'm hoping it at least passes $10 million although I'm sure it will struggle just to reach $7 million if it keeps up this agonizingly slow pace.

Why feel bad for it? It looks like crap and Disney knew it too.

[The Futurist]

Imo 2015 will be quite top heavy. 

 

 

AS 370+

Fast seven 250+

 

TA2: 550+

 

Bond: 280+

 

Mj2: 370+

SW7:500+ 

 

 

 

I think there will be less moderate hit films this year.

Nope Star Wars won t do 500 m in 2015.

[La Binoche]

What happened to The Boy Next Door doing $10M on Friday? I'm gonna stick with Deadline's #s from now on. 

[Alpha]

I think right now is a good time to reflect on David Koepp's horrible directing career.

 

[CJohn]

I think right now is a good time to reflect on David Koepp's horrible directing career.

 

I really like Premium Rush.

[The Panda]

What happened to The Boy Next Door doing $10M on Friday? I'm gonna stick with Deadline's #s from now on. 

 

That was the biggest mess-up RTH has done in a year, still on average he is way more accurate than Deadline.

[75Live]

I think right now is a good time to reflect on David Koepp's horrible directing career.

Secret Window was good. The others, not so much

[CJohn]

That was the biggest mess-up RTH has done in a year, still on average he is way more accurate than Deadline.

Since Jersey Boys.

[solaris]

So assuming a 50% jump today and 40% drop on Sunday, we're looking at around a $62.3m weekend, a touch over 30% drop. I'm think it should make another 17m or so this week giving it a weekly total of just under $80m, or around a 40% drop from week 1 (inflated by the holiday monday). Based on 35% weekly drops there on out I have it finishing at around $360m, although I think it may well end up closer to $380m when all is said and done. 

 

What are the international numbers looking like for AS? Doesn't seem to breaking out here in the UK too much...

[The Panda]

Since Jersey Boys.

 

Deadline screws up on big proportions at least once a month.

[solaris]

I think right now is a good time to reflect on David Koepp's horrible directing career.

 

Secret Window was decent. The rest... not so much.

[narniadis]

Such awesome numbers we have huge hits and mega bombs lol

While it's not 20+ that is still an amazing number for sniper.

[dashrendar44]

Stir Of Echoes is underrated.

[narniadis]

I don't get the swinging some of yall do between trusting RTH or not. Yes he has better access to numbers but yall come across as ungrateful demi gods with some of your attitudes. When a film skews as old in the demo as AS and Jersey Boys there is a larger margin of error.

[filmlover]

Stir Of Echoes is underrated.

This. Kevin Bacon gives one of his best performances in it.