Arrival | Nov 11, 2016 | Villeneuve/Adams/Renner | First Reviews Have Arrived.

[cannastop]

I might see this on Friday.

[shayhiri]

On 2.12.2016 г. at 9:39 PM, The Futurist said:

Seing this next week, this better be the second coming, or else ...

 

It is not. It's cheap, shouldn't work on most really smart people - and is therefore boring.

[Tau Ceti]

For those of you geeking out over Arrival's legs, I think it's end point can safely be revised up.

 

I've been tracking it relative to five movies. The best comparison continues to be Flight -- they opened a weekend apart and have had very, very similar patterns. As of yesterday, I believe Arrival has permanently overtaken Flight in its dailies: both have Thanksgiving behind them and there is no major hiccup in the calendar (other than Rogue One) to disturb the comparison. Depending on how you define the benchmark, a Flight performance henceforth is worth a final total of $91-95 mil for Arrival.

 

What's left is calculating the Oscar bounce. The bigger the preceding gross the less Oscar noms matter (eg. it was huge for Room last year but irrelevant for The Martian). For Arrival the bounce ought to be a few million -- enough to get it within spitting distance of $100 mil. I can't imagine Paramount won't push to make up the difference when its legs are already being held up as the best of the fall.

 

Long story short, I'd say better than even money that this gets to the century.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Tau Ceti

[MovieMan89]

Let's at least hope it doesn't stop just short of this:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=gnomeoandjuliet.htm

[The Futurist]

"Her eyes are a massive weapon of cinema"

(David o' Russell)

 

What Amy Adams is able to do is not really counscious, that s a not a dig at her, she s obviously fantastic, but what emanates on the screen from her is totally unique, it just hits you like a dagger, there is a truthfullness, a soul that very few actors are able to compel on this magnitude.

 

Her eyes give you all the information you need at any given moment.

 

I remember an interview of hers where she thanked her agent, her words were : " 15 years ago, my agent saw something in me "

 

Yes, Amy, you have something in you, something that transcends acting & technique.

 

This movie will remain in History because of you/her.

 

On paper, her part looks impossible, she has to sell us so many incredible ideas and moments that very few living actors would have been able to do it.

She plays Half of her scenes convincing you

Spoiler

she s the only one capable of understanding a super advanced alien race language

, in front of green screens.

And she just embarks you in this incredible journey through time & language & understanding with her humanity & empathy.

 

At this point, talking about Oscars is almost an insult, I prefer feeling this movie in a non-linear way, thanks to this astonishing woman called :

 

Amy Adams

 

 

 

[terrestrial]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

Awareness and theater counts continues to expand for ARRIVAL, as Paramount's sci-fi hit adds 200+ theaters--now 3,115--in its 5th weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, The Futurist said:

"Her eyes are a massive weapon of cinema"

(David o' Russell)

 

What Amy Adams is able to do is not really counscious, that s a not a dig at her, she s obviously fantastic, but what emanates on the screen from her is totally unique, it just hits you like a dagger, there is a truthfullness, a soul that very few actors are able to compel on this magnitude.

 

Her eyes give you all the information you need at any given moment.

 

I remember an interview of hers where she thanked her agent, her words were : " 15 years ago, my agent saw something in me "

 

Yes, Amy, you have something in you, something that transcends acting & technique.

 

This movie will remain in History because of you/her.

 

On paper, her part looks impossible, she has to sell us so many incredible ideas and moments that very few living actors would have been able to do it.

She plays Half of her scenes convincing you

  Hide contents

she s the only one capable of understanding a super advanced alien race language

, in front of green screens.

And she just embarks you in this incredible journey through time & language & understanding with her humanity & empathy.

 

At this point, talking about Oscars is almost an insult, I prefer feeling this movie in a non-linear way, thanks to this astonishing woman called :

 

Amy Adams

 

 

 

Futurist liked this. Hot damn.

[cannastop]

49 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

Awareness and theater counts continues to expand for ARRIVAL, as Paramount's sci-fi hit adds 200+ theaters--now 3,115--in its 5th weekend.

Alright! Maybe I won't have to rush and see it.

[Tau Ceti]

What do people think: does Paramount suddenly look genius for the delayed roll out or does the continued expansion only reinforce that this should have been in +3,000 theatres to begin with?

[Eevin]

6 minutes ago, Tau Ceti said:

What do people think: does Paramount suddenly look genius for the delayed roll out or does the continued expansion only reinforce that this should have been in +3,000 theatres to begin with?

I think it's genius on Paramount's part. If Arrival had opened in 3000+ theaters before Thanksgiving then it would have shedded a lot of screens thanks to FB, Moana, etc. I don't doubt that the Christmas glut will cause it to lose screens, but the fact that they're expanding later rather than sooner means that it's relevant for longer. 

[DAJK]

I'm afraid this is gonna be losing lots of screens to Star Wars  

[Tau Ceti]

1 hour ago, Eevin said:

I think it's genius on Paramount's part. If Arrival had opened in 3000+ theaters before Thanksgiving then it would have shedded a lot of screens thanks to FB, Moana, etc. I don't doubt that the Christmas glut will cause it to lose screens, but the fact that they're expanding later rather than sooner means that it's relevant for longer. 

 

I'm coming around to this thinking after having the opposite impression for weeks. The studio left five or even ten million on the table on its opening weekend but the film is now rapidly making that back by exceeding its calendar configuration (its dailies as a percentage of opening weekend are now higher than Gravity). By sacrificing early money for later theatre counts, Arrival could conceivably still have +1000 on Christmas Eve. That would totally exceed expectations for an early November release.

 

I'm not sure how much Paramount deserves credit for it and how much is just good fortune. But if there's an argument to be made for deliberately backloading a film, this is it. 

[Eevin]

So does this have a solid chance of $100m+? I can't imagine it missing 90m at this point, and I think a likely BP nomination will help with late legs, especially if it's on 1000+ screens post-New Year's. 

For reference, if it has similar legs to Gravity from here on out it gets to $107m;

If it plays like Interstellar from here on out it gets to $106m;

If it plays like The Martian it gets to $105m.

I don't see it going under that range, especially with this many screens going into the holidays and significant Oscar buzz.

[Krissykins]

This film has now passed where I thought it would finish $75m.

 

What a great run, fully deserved too.

[MovieMan89]

I had it pegged for 85m, which it will also clear with ease. Awesome. 

 

It's also kind of crazy that if LLL doesn't do big numbers like a lot of us are hoping, this could be the big box office "hit" of the BP field this year. 

Edited December 9, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Eevin]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I had it pegged for 85m, which it will also clear with ease. Awesome. 

 

It's also kind of crazy that if LLL doesn't do big numbers like a lot of us are hoping, this could be the big box office "hit" of the BP field this year. 

Possibly. Do you think Sully has a shot at getting nominated for BP? As great as Arrival's box office run is I can't see a plausible scenario where it does $125m+ unless it wins every single Oscar ever.

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, Eevin said:

Possibly. Do you think Sully has a shot at getting nominated for BP? As great as Arrival's box office run is I can't see a plausible scenario where it does $125m+ unless it wins every single Oscar ever.

I would hope Sully doesn't get a BP nom since I personally think it's just another by the numbers "inspirational true event" directed by Eastwood. But they love him and Hanks and it would be the biggest hit of the contenders, so who knows. 

[Tau Ceti]

The Martian was clearly hurt last year by the huge breakout from Fury Road. If it does get in (which isn't assured) I really don't think Sully will draw votes like that from Arrival. The two will be viewed as the higher end of a very low grossing crop rather than as outright blockbusters.

[La Binoche]

Arrival is getting Best Picture and Best Actress nominations. 

[RandomCat]

I liked this movie, even if it kind of stumbles in the final minutes, and didn't quite have the payoff I was hoping for. >< also wished someone hadn't spoiled the time element for me, that made things probably far less interesting.

 

Aw well, marks all around on the acting and direction, really happy with the experience.