Wednesday Numbers | Official Estimates: Magic Mike XXL - 9.3M; Terminator: Genisys - 8.9M

[keysersoze123]

Let's wait and see how Wednesday turns out. Tuesday previews post-TDKR are weird (who goes to see a movie at 7 on Tuesday) and I'm not sure if there's enough examples to draw empirical conclusions yet. Not a good number for TG obviously but considering it's Tuesday it might not turn out too awful. Mike increased only .3 from its predecessor despite a higher budget, more marketing, and being a sequel, so that would be a disappointment if it was a Friday, too. So I'm taking both of these numbers without drawing much conclusions.

 

But TG has 3d and Imax and played in more theaters than MM2. There is also no doubt MM2 aint coming close to MM BO(just like Ted 2 under performed).

 

Anyway what's wrong with 7PM tuesday JULY 1st. Discount Tuesday plus its 4th of July week and heart of summer. Definitely better than TS's 4th thursday of May midnight opening without any premium screens.

[Spectre]

So it's a good number if you were expecting a flop?

Define flop? If it makes over $100M domestic and keeps doing good business overseas, it could still make enough for Paramount go through with the sequels they have on the calendar (I can't even imagine the backlash for that one after this).

Whether it's a horrendous movie or whether it should be made is irrelevant to them because it's always been about the $$$.

[Plain Old Tele]

Glad to see the forum is pretty united on their expectations & reaction for T5.

I guess I'm one of the outliers again.

[JennaJ]

Define flop? If it makes over $100M domestic and keeps doing good business overseas, it could still make enough for Paramount go through with the sequels they have on the calendar (I can't even imagine the backlash for that one after this).

Whether it's a horrendous movie or whether it should be made is irrelevant to them because it's always been about the $$$.

 

If it does on par with Tomorrowland domestic, that's a major flop in my book.

I'm sure Paramount was not hoping for under TS when they green-lit this.

As for what it does OS... maybe China can save it, but it looks crap, I'd be surprised if it has good legs. I think it might open big and die off quickly once audiences get a whiff.

 

Honestly, with the reception this is getting, even if it's somewhat profitable there's no way a sequel won't decline greatly. Paramount will have to be desperate to go ahead with it.

[Cmasterclay]

But TG has 3d and Imax and played in more theaters than MM2. There is also no doubt MM2 aint coming close to MM BO(just like Ted 2 under performed).

 

Anyway what's wrong with 7PM tuesday JULY 1st. Discount Tuesday plus its 4th of July week and heart of summer. Definitely better than TS's 4th thursday of May midnight opening without any premium screens.

Discount Tuesdays don't apply for opening night/preview movies near me, so I kind of extrapolated that to everyone. Besides, alot of folks I know that are going to movies on Tuesdays aren't aware that a new movie is out- they're instead going to see something they missed over the weekend at cheaper prices (so not typical preview audiences). Like I said, since the expansion of previews post-TDKR, we just don't have enough data on Tuesday previews. And yes, Magic Mike is clearly going to do better than TG, especially relative to budget, and that's great. I'm happy for the cast- they seemed to have a ton of fun making it. It's just funny to see the same people who say "I want every movie to be a success, that makes box office fun!" cackling like a hyena in delight in reaction to TG's number.

Edited July 1, 2015 by cmasterclay

[keysersoze123]

Anyway JW wednesday drop will be worse than IO becuse its losing Imax and PLF. So it would be shocking if it won the weekend. I doubt it will be even close; IO will win this one comfortably. I am not sure about 2nd at this point. But I would bet on JW at this point as both MM2 and TG are disappointing big time.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

TG/T5 was always going to be a film that would need to earn back its fanbase' trust(a la Batman Begins). While the reviews don't exactly look like they've done that, it was inevitable that it would start out soft. (Who knows, maybe this will be a crowd pleaser)

 

Although I distinctly remember saying these very same things about TS. Is it really that hard to make a halfway decent Terminator film without Cameron?

[Plain Old Tele]

T:G is Skydance, though. Paramount just stepped in for distribution and partial financing, no?

[RichWS]

Maybe it's because I've lived in/around NYC my whole life, but this whole Discount Tuesday thing seems like an elaborate fabrication. You guys have talked about it for years and I'm here to say you're full of shit.

[theultimatebiu]

TG/T5 was always going to be a film that would need to earn back its fanbase' trust(a la Batman Begins). While the reviews don't exactly look like they've done that, it was inevitable that it would start out soft. (Who knows, maybe this will be a crowd pleaser)

 

Although I distinctly remember saying these very same things about TS. Is it really that hard to make a halfway decent Terminator film without Cameron?

 

No its just very bad plot choices. Except for pushing the story forward  with a strong plot they keep revisiting the same well.

[superduperm]

Not a good start for Terminator Genisys, it needs to make around 12 million today to recover. If it only does 8-10 million the movie is in trouble.

Personally, I think even $12M would be pretty bad. That's lower than each of TS's first four days of release. Granted three of those days were part of a weekend, but still it was in May and opening Thursday had no problem reaching $13M back in 2009 with no 3D.

And goodness. If this somehow makes under $10M today, you can stick a fork in it. $100M total would be difficult at that point.

[keysersoze123]

TG/T5 was always going to be a film that would need to earn back its fanbase' trust(a la Batman Begins). While the reviews don't exactly look like they've done that, it was inevitable that it would start out soft. (Who knows, maybe this will be a crowd pleaser)

 

Although I distinctly remember saying these very same things about TS. Is it really that hard to make a halfway decent Terminator film without Cameron?

 

The biggest problem is franchise was DONE with T2. so all the sequels are/were pointless. Plus post T2 none of the films brought anything new and in the era where we have SH movies and Transformers movies showing more impressive CGI sequences with machines, I dont know what is the selling point.

 

At least JW had awesome dino action which is not effectively exploited in Hollywood.

[redfirebird2008]

TG/T5 was always going to be a film that would need to earn back its fanbase' trust(a la Batman Begins). While the reviews don't exactly look like they've done that, it was inevitable that it would start out soft. (Who knows, maybe this will be a crowd pleaser)

 

Although I distinctly remember saying these very same things about TS. Is it really that hard to make a halfway decent Terminator film without Cameron?

 

Difference between this and a comic book reboot is that Terminator wasn't based on existing material. At least with Batman Begins you could say "we're throwing out the old movies and looking at some different comic books for inspiration."

 

With Terminator when you fuck with the story that was created in the original, it can create a mess. There just isn't the wealth of source material to draw on like with comic book characters and it could easily be seen as disrespectful to the original story if you pull some crazy twist on it, which apparently this movie does. Some people will be completely on-board but quite a few probably won't.

[Deep Wang]

Yeah, I don't think this is particularly good for either movie and we might be in for a boring weekend.

[RichWS]

The Terminator franchise is "brand recognition" taken to the absolute "who gives a shit?" end point. *Is unaware of how Baumer feels about it, but fully expects him to be totally into it. Love you, Baum*

[misafeco]

40M 5-day, 90M total.

[Jay Beezy]

Yeah, I don't think this is particularly good for either movie and we might be in for a boring weekend.

Magic Mike has a much lower bar of what constitutes a good number. It's perfectly fine.

[WrathOfHan]

40M 5-day, 90M total.

 

Probably this.

[Deep Wang]

Magic Mike has a much lower bar of what constitutes a good number. It's perfectly fine.

 

I know it will be perfectly fine, but it's still going to be part of a boring weekend.

[GiantCALBears]

The Terminator franchise is "brand recognition" taken to the absolute "who gives a shit?" end point. *Is unaware of how Baumer feels about it, but fully expects him to be totally into it. Love you, Baum*

Haha chuckle chuckle