Weekend Actuals (Page 93): TFA 42.35M | The Revenant 39.83M | Daddy's Home 15.02M | The Forest 12.74M | Sisters 7.19M

[spazz91]

Just now, Punishment said:

 

I'm using the exact daily drops for each movie.  The Monday to Thursday drops are reasonably close (as you have noted), but the Friday increase was way off; FOTR +198%, TTT +144%, and ROTK +118% compared to TFA +80%.  The LOTR movies increased well over 100% for the next few Fridays as well and that is why I'm doubtful that TFA will follow any of those movies.

 

I'm hoping to be wrong though and maybe TFA will surprise us and have more than a 100% increase this coming Friday.

 

I'm hoping the lower Friday jumps are just based on Thursday's volume. This coming weekend we should be down around $3m weekdays so >100% Friday jump is definitely doable.

[Punishment]

And here is the daily comparison of Hobbit3 vs. TFA for the past week:

 

	Hobbit3	TFA
Sun	-34.90%	-37.5%
Mon	-66.40%	-62.7%
Tue	8.60%	-0.7%
Wed	-25.40%	-22.1%
Thu	-7.20%	-3.8%
Fri	83.60%	79.9%
Sat	72.50%	78.7%
Sun	-36.20%	-35.4%

[Daxtreme]

10 minutes ago, Punishment said:

 

I'm using the exact daily drops for each movie.  The Monday to Thursday drops are reasonably close (as you have noted), but the Friday increase was way off; FOTR +198%, TTT +144%, and ROTK +118% compared to TFA +80%.  The LOTR movies increased well over 100% for the next few Fridays as well and that is why I'm doubtful that TFA will follow any of those movies.

 

I'm hoping to be wrong though and maybe TFA will surprise us and have more than a 100% increase this coming Friday.

 

Alright! Well, at least the weekdays are better? lol

 

So hopefully that means it's not behaving exactly like Hobbit 3? 

 

The optimist in me believes that these small friday drops were caused by the already way-too-large numbers we're seeing, but... heh, I'm probably wrong.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Daxtreme

[Cookson]

So many people have watched TFA it's hard to keep that train going honestly.

[AndyLL]

1 hour ago, misafeco said:

1B is dead. Search your feelings, you know it to be true.

 

It'll get there.

 

We'll use the Force

[ForcedForward]

2 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

 

It'll get there.

 

We'll use the Force

 

That's not how the force works! 

Edited January 11, 2016 by ForcedForward

[LonePirate]

I wonder if Sony has anything planned to help push Spectre above $200M or are they content to have the highest grossing film not to hit that milestone. It will pass GWTW sometime within the next few days to be the highest grosser below $200M.

 

Looks like TFA crosses $850M on Sunday barring some other-worldly holds and it reaches that milestone on Saturday. Avatar adjusted will be passed in just a few more days, probably Saturday. Also it needs to average $6M/day through the end of the upcoming holiday weekend to grab that lofty 11th spot on the adjusted list. It may need Valentine's Day weekend to crack the Top 10, though.

Edited January 11, 2016 by LonePirate

[DarthWalker]

Deadpool will have taken too many screens

[lilmac]

21 minutes ago, ForcedForward said:

 

That's not how the force works! 

 

Really?? You're cold?

[ForcedForward]

If I was Disney, I would start thinking of ways to put it over the top.  Looking at JW and considering a little more crazy fans wanting to see it again before it leaves the theater it should do 120 million more putting it about 70 million short of 1 billion.

[lilmac]

Just now, ForcedForward said:

If I was Disney, I would start thinking of ways to put it over the top.  Looking at JW and considering a little more crazy fans wanting to see it again before it leaves the theater it should do 120 million more putting it about 70 million short of 1 billion.

 

Disney needs to make a TFA sing along. Drum up more business and get to $1 billion. 

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, ForcedForward said:

If I was Disney, I would start thinking of ways to put it over the top.  Looking at JW and considering a little more crazy fans wanting to see it again before it leaves the theater it should do 120 million more putting it about 70 million short of 1 billion.

They could try stealing IMAX screens before Divergent.

[DAJK]

33 minutes ago, DarthWalker said:

Deadpool will have taken too many screens

That's not how the force works!

[Orestes]

Releasing an extended edition in theaters is probably the only way to put TFA over 1bil, depending on how close it gets. But then, it depends on if Disney actually cares about that kind of milestone or not.

[rustyspoons89]

28 minutes ago, lilmac said:

 

Disney needs to make a TFA sing along. Drum up more business and get to $1 billion. 

The captions will read 

"ba ba ba baaaaa baaaaa b-b-b BAAAH bahh"

 

with a little BB-8 bouncing from word to word.

 

I'd sing along to that.  

Edited January 11, 2016 by rustyspoons89

[junkshop36]

2 hours ago, misafeco said:

1B is dead. Search your feelings, you know it to be true.

 

"I am, a slow learner"

 

[James]

2 hours ago, junkshop36 said:

RA2 will win the upcoming weekend. 

 

TFA will take second with Revenant in third and 13 hours in fourth

I'm thinking RA2 - The Revenant - TFA - 13 Hours. The Revenant and SW  were very close this weekend and The Revenant should be the type of movie that has very light drops.

[TommyA10]

12 minutes ago, James said:

I'm thinking RA2 - The Revenant - TFA - 13 Hours. The Revenant and SW  were very close this weekend and The Revenant should be the type of movie that has very light drops.

It will depend on the WOM. Critical consensus hasn't been astonishingly great for that type of movie (BP candidate). 80% on RT (7.8/10). 4.2/5 is the audience score, so better than critics' score.

[tokila]

2 hours ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Alright! Well, at least the weekdays are better? lol

 

So hopefully that means it's not behaving exactly like Hobbit 3? 

 

The optimist in me believes that these small friday drops were caused by the already way-too-large numbers we're seeing, but... heh, I'm probably wrong.

TFA is not behaving like any movie ever. People keep trying to find examples of other movies to compare it to. Each time it has failed. One week it looked like Avatar on weekdays, causing everyone to way over predict the weekend. Then people tried ROTK it worked for one week then failed. Now people are looking at the above 50% drop weekend 4 and are using Hobbit 3. Even though nothing it has done so far is anything like what the Hobbit  3 did.

 

Applying specific examples to TFA will only lead to failure. After last week's monday number I stated it was aiming for a 41-43 mil weekend. Several people basically said I was an idiot and did not even know what BOM was (implying that looking there would show me how other movies had performed).

 

Some people just want to make sense of TFA and feel like they have some idea where its heading so they use historical trendlines. (which work with many other movies)

 

Good luck finding a movie that pulled a 40m+ weekend while number 1 all time. We are in uncharted territory.

Could it continue dropping hard because he already burnt through 812 million of demand? Very possible

Could it find a sweet spot where it see lower week over week drops ones it gets down to a level where it can sustain that? Also very possible

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by tokila

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, lilmac said:

 

Really?? You're cold?

 

Grrrhgggh Earrgh!