WrathOfHan Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 hours ago, department store basement said: Alright, so it's pretty much a two horse race between LLL and Moonlight now. LLL would be the clear front runner if it had SAG. La La Land has this locked. Missing SAG isn't an issue when the movie's few side characters are in it for 3 scenes max. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
department store basement Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: La La Land has this locked. Missing SAG isn't an issue when the movie's few side characters are in it for 3 scenes max. That's what they said about Revenant and guess what? It lost. Chazelle is a lock for Director but who knows for Picture. Edited January 25, 2017 by department store basement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 (edited) 16 minutes ago, department store basement said: That's what they said about Revenant and guess what? It lost. Chazelle is a lock for Director but who knows for Picture. La La Land is winning. This isn't a contest. As I said in the other thread, there hasn't been a Best Picture lock this signed, sealed, and delivered since Slumdog Millionaire. Edited January 25, 2017 by filmlover 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 Other then some of the main cats-I was really off this year. (I wasn't sure what to write earlier today) Someone could count the points for the Oscar game and send them to me if they want. I'll put up the next part later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 Wow one of the nominees for Deepwater has the record for the most nominations without a win in the category of sound editing. Can he finally win it? And La La Land is the first live action musical to be nominated for sound editing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 hours ago, department store basement said: That's what they said about Revenant and guess what? It lost. Chazelle is a lock for Director but who knows for Picture. Revenant wasn't a clear frontrunner! Before Oscars, it wasn't able to win the PGA. It was a bit divisive, while La La Land isn't. Spotlight was seen as a plausible and strong contender. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 After that 14 noms, I am feeling we are headed for a tie with the most awarded movies of all time, with 11 Oscars for La La Land. Picture: La La Land Director: Chazelle Actor: Casey Affleck Actress: Emma Stone Supp Actor: Mahershala Ali Supp Actress: Viola Davis O. Screenplay: Manchester by the sea A. Screenplay: Moonlight Editing: La La Land Cinematography: La La Land Costumes: La La Land Production design: La La Land Score: La La Land Song: City of Stars (La La Land) Sound mix: La La Land Sound editing: La La Land Make-up: Ove Visual Effects: Jungle Book Animated: Zootopia Foreign: Toni Erdmann 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 -La La Land wins PGA/DGA -Hidden Figures upsets Moonlight at SAG. -Affleck, Stone, Ali and Viola win their SAGs on their way to their oscars. -La La Land mega sweeps the BAFTA's, maybe even script and Gosling wins. -Backlash intensifies. -Oscar Night LLL wins 10 losing only Gosling, script and a sound award, Moonlight and Manchester get their screenplay oscars and that's that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I still don't know what the hell to think of Supporting Actor. You can make a viable case for everyone except Hedges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BirdMan Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Why are we ruling out the screenplay win for LLL ??? just because it is a musical doesn't mean it is losing this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I'd generally agree. I'd say folks are missing the forest for the trees when they say it can't win screenplay cos of a few songs. It's actually the kind of screenplay the oscars like to award beyond that. More "wordy" than Manchester too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 (edited) 29 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: I still don't know what the hell to think of Supporting Actor. You can make a viable case for everyone except Hedges. I feel like Patel definitely isn't happening unless he wins SAG. Bridges' Oscar was only 7 years ago so probably not, and they're probably worried about what Shannon would say in his speech. Ali seems pretty safe, despite his little screen time. Edited January 25, 2017 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, BirdMan said: Why are we ruling out the screenplay win for LLL ??? just because it is a musical doesn't mean it is losing this Because if LLL has any weakness even its fans would acknowledge it's in the writing, and there's a much more obvious writing showcase sitting right next to it in Manchester. Not that it means we should entirely rule out the win. I was sure Inglourious Basterds would win screenplay over The Hurt Locker too, because that felt like even more of a no-brainer, but when the Academy goes crazy for a movie they can go really crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Ali has Supporting in the bag. Now that ATJ is out, it's an easy ride for him. Done. Viola has Supporting in the bag. Done. Casey likely has Actor in the bag. Stone likely has Actress in the bag with an outside Huppert upset. Picture and Director are a toss between La la Land and Moonlight. Could go either way including a split. My money is on Moonlight/Jenkins cause it fits the Hollywood's behavioral pattern of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Valonqar said: My money is on Moonlight/Jenkins cause it fits the Hollywood's behavioral pattern of late. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 (edited) 2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: In some ways it kind of does, if it wins best adapted screenplay, best supporting actor and BP, that's a 12 years a slave kind of path to BP. La La could end up taking more awards and/or even director (Gravity, Mad Max, Revenant, Hugo). That plus the Oscars-so-white thing, the political environment, paying back for "Brokeback mountain" , and Barry Jenkins could have a first African-American director winner thing going on, and SAG snug statistic of LLL and so on... I think a case can be made for Moonlight winning and that doesn't sound like an extraordinary scenario. But of course, LLL remains the favourite and it is also typical academy patterned behavior to award films about the industry (Argo, Birdman, The Artist). Edited January 25, 2017 by NCsoft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, NCsoft said: In some ways it kind of does, if it wins best adapted screenplay, best supporting actor and BP, that's a 12 years a slave kind of path to BP. La La could end up taking more awards and/or even director (Gravity, Mad Max, Revenant, Hugo). That plus the Oscars-so-white thing, the political environment, paying back for "Brokeback mountain" , and Barry Jenkins could have a first African-American director winner thing going on, and SAG snug statistic of LLL and so on... I think a case can be made for Moonlight winning and that doesn't sound like an extraordinary scenario. But of course, LLL remains the favourite and it is also typical academy patterned behavior to award films about the industry (Argo, Birdman, The Artist). He's not referring to awards history Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 I am beginning my Oscar Tour. Yesterday I saw Arrival (A) Friday/Saturday I will try to see La La Land with my wife Next week I'll try to see Hacksaw Ridge and Hidden Figures Lion, Fences, Manchester and Moonlight still have to open in Spain... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 now that i've seen them all 1. La La Land 2. Manchester By The Sea 3. Moonlight 4. Fences 5. Hell or High Water 6. Arrival 7. Hacksaw Ridge 8. Lion 9. Hidden Figures. A fine group. don't really have a problem with any of them being there even if only 2 of them would make my own top 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Arrival La La Land Moonlight Hidden Figures Manchester Hell or High Water Lion Fences Hacksaw Ridge All of them are good in my eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
