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baumer

Monday Numbers (Dory)...20M or just under RTH

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3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Rth's clue is his drive in photo.   It's dated 2013.   So...  $20.13 or $24.

Oh shit, I thought he was just being cheeky.


Where does he get the time to string us along like this? Gotta take effort, I swear.

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4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Rth's clue is his drive in photo.   It's dated 2013.   So...  $20.13 or $24.

Oh.  I didn't see any numbers on the picture and didn't think to look at the url, I guess he's gotten more subtle since I was last paying attention.

 

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I think what baumer's getting at is no animated film will ever touch what Shrek 2 did (or will). It opened in a completely different cultural climate. Really the only known CGI films at the time were Shrek and Toy/Nemo/Monsters, all of which are arguably the best films made in their medium. This was the peak of CGI as a fad, but also fad based in quality. Shrek 2 was bolstered perception that be these films were extraordinary, one-of-a-kind achievements and few of these movies contradicted that (including the sequel at the time, even if it obviously hasn't aged well). The bottom fell out, largely thanks to Dreamworks itself by polluting the CGI marketplace with millions of terrible rushed films. Even Shrek 3 couldn't sell more tickets opening weekend and that came just three years later and on the heels of one of the most liked blockbusters ever made. 

 

Frozen was one of those cultural phenomenons the current studio system seems to ensure can't exist anymore. It opens #2 in November and it's #1 in mid-January. It's also an enormous factor in getting the musical back in the cultural landscape (but that's for a much longer piece). No novelty or cash-in.. it totally reignited a brand.

 

Dory is the first summer movies in years that's a purebred sequel to a well-loved film and audiences are rewarding. The last might've been Despicable Me and the scale is much bigger here. Thinking about how it may come within distance of Nemo's adjusted run is great considering how much Nemo made (more impressive than when Toy Story 3 retained Toy Story 2's admissions). 

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23 minutes ago, Gopher said:

Frozen was one of those cultural phenomenons the current studio system seems to ensure can't exist anymore. It opens #2 in November and it's #1 in mid-January. It's also an enormous factor in getting the musical back in the cultural landscape (but that's for a much longer piece). No novelty or cash-in.. it totally reignited a brand.

I don't think it's impossible even now. Just release the right movie in November, and luck might have it that way.

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11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Really hope Dory increases today. Increased massively at my theatre, from a 26.4M Monday to a 46M Tuesday. Will probably dip to maybe 14-18M tho tomorrow.

 

 

That's MASSIVE :D

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Zootopia's DOM run is more impressive than Frozen's just for the record. Released in the heart of the school year, no holiday or summer legs to help it. A massive blockbuster direct competitor just a month later with The Jungle Book (something Frozen never had in its whole run). No merchandise frenzy or big soundtrack to elevate its popularity. No throngs of obsessed little girls seeing it over and over. Released in an increasingly harsher climate for legs and longevity. Nothing on its side but straight up immaculate WOM taking it to 85%+ of Frozen's total, despite all the disadvantages it had in comparison. Incredible. 

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Minions jumped 30% on 1st Tuesday (from 12.9 to 16.8) and IO jumped 24% (from 10.5 to 13).

24m would give Dory a 22.6% Tuesday bump.

Considering it's pulling much bigger numbers than Minions and IO with a stronger than normal Monday drop, 24m is great.

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24M for Dory would be amazing for this Tuesday

 

From then:

18M / 16M / 22M / 30M / 23M

 

10 day cume: 269M

2nd weekend: 75M (-45%)

 

Other animated films after 10 days

Minions 215M

Shrek3 203M

TS3 226M

Shrek2 (12 days) 236M

IO 185M

 

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1 hour ago, stripe said:

24M for Dory would be amazing for this Tuesday

 

From then:

18M / 16M / 22M / 30M / 23M

 

10 day cume: 269M

2nd weekend: 75M (-45%)

 

Other animated films after 10 days

Minions 215M

Shrek3 203M

TS3 226M

Shrek2 (12 days) 236M

IO 185M

 

 

It'll be more than that. Think you missed a day in your calculation.

 

More like $288 million after 10 days with your daily forecast. 

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Disneys domestic market share is currently 31.4% of the year. The 2nd largest yearly share for any year is Universal in 2015 with 21.3. Think this highlights just how incredible the dominance is by Disney

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5 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Zootopia's DOM run is more impressive than Frozen's just for the record. Released in the heart of the school year, no holiday or summer legs to help it. A massive blockbuster direct competitor just a month later with The Jungle Book (something Frozen never had in its whole run). No merchandise frenzy or big soundtrack to elevate its popularity. No throngs of obsessed little girls seeing it over and over. Released in an increasingly harsher climate for legs and longevity. Nothing on its side but straight up immaculate WOM taking it to 85%+ of Frozen's total, despite all the disadvantages it had in comparison. Incredible. 

^this

 

Frozen would have stalled around $275-325 million DOM without the Christmas/New Year's boost near the middle of its run. Its nearly 6x would probably have been a 4x-4.5x without the holiday boost. 

 

Zootopia got a 4.5x-4.6x all by itself, pretty much. Both are extremely impressive, but Zootopia showed some old-fashioned legs during the typically slow season. 

2 hours ago, stripe said:

24M for Dory would be amazing for this Tuesday

 

From then:

18M / 16M / 22M / 30M / 23M

 

10 day cume: 269M

2nd weekend: 75M (-45%)

 

Other animated films after 10 days

Minions 215M

Shrek3 203M

TS3 226M

Shrek2 (12 days) 236M

IO 185M

 

1

I think your weekend is too small for $77.5 million in dailies. 

 

$77-82 million is my guess for the weekend. 

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$24m on Tuesday? If so...

 

TOP SINGLE DAY NON-OPENING TUESDAYS

 

Rank Title (click to view) Studio Single Day Gross Theaters Average Date / Days in Release Gross to Date* Final Gross*
1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $37,361,729 4,134 $9,038 12/22/15 5 $325.4 $936.7
2 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $29,528,583 4,134 $7,143 12/29/15 12 $600.9 $936.7
3 Jurassic World Uni. $24,342,515 4,274 $5,695 6/16/15 5 $258.5 $652.3
4 The Dark Knight WB $20,868,722 4,366 $4,780 7/22/08 5 $203.8 $533.3
Edited by cannastop
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