July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

[angeldelmito]

the purge did good but not good enough for me to win my bet. dammit

 

[MrPink]

11 minutes ago, Rth said:

lol you feel old..boy I started later 70's, use to put out estimates, actuals etc far back as early 90's (In fact years later BOM took over some). I should have had shares in BOM was dealing with Brandon Gray when he was at Uni and BOM was a pipe dream gave him lot info pre-post BOM starting, along with lot of the other sites.

 

Weekend estimates online been around since around 89-91/2 (Before WWW  through services like AOL, Compuserve), Friday estimates on Sat morning been around since at least mid 90's (public, longer for industry only)

 

This is epic. You are a legend.

[CJohn]

42 minutes ago, Rth said:

lol you feel old..boy I started later 70's, use to put out estimates, actuals etc far back as early 90's (In fact years later BOM took over some). I should have had shares in BOM was dealing with Brandon Gray when he was at Uni and BOM was a pipe dream gave him lot info pre-post BOM starting, along with lot of the other sites.

 

Weekend estimates online been around since around 89-91/2 (Before WWW  through services like AOL, Compuserve), Friday estimates on Sat morning been around since at least mid 90's (public, longer for industry only)

LEGEND RTH

[WrathOfHan]

In Germany, Ice Age 5 dropped 60% from the fourth  Didn't do so hot in UK previews either with 1.3M. On the other hand it only dropped 20% in Australia.

[grim22]

Been away this weekend due to a road trip with family, but those Tarzan numbers and especially its holds over the weekend are really good. Looks like the large trailer view counts it kept getting was not misleading after all.

[marveldcfox]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

In Germany, Ice Age 5 dropped 60% from the fourth  Didn't do so hot in UK previews either with 1.3M. On the other hand it only dropped 20% in Australia.

This franchise peaked in overseas market with IA4. It's all downhill from here. Loving the ass whooping fox has gotten this year barring Deadpool, whose success has nothing to do with Fox. 

[dxmatrixdt]

Finding DORY 

Monday (-35.11%)  8.53

Tuesday (+3.18%) 8.80

Wednesday (-35.00%) 5.72

Thursday (-9.26%) 5.19

 

Weekdays = 28.24

Current estimated total as of Sunday = 371.76

 

if Dory does not collapse Thursday, then 400 in 21 days

Edited July 5, 2016 by Matrix4You

[UrosepsisFace]

8 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

This franchise peaked in overseas market with IA4. It's all downhill from here. Loving the ass whooping fox has gotten this year barring Deadpool, whose success has nothing to do with Fox. 

 

But they're in second and Revenant has made tons of cash. I think Fox will end up third when all is said and done, but I hope Miss. Peregrine breaks out.

[Gopher]

Dory - this is the only summer film that has ignited any interest. This year more than any shows when a family film clicks with audiences you can look forward to the money coming in for months to come. Not every animated movie can do it (poor Angry Birds barely cracked a hundred mil) but all of a sudden it feels like the average Disney animated pic can crack 300 no problem. Look forward to that happening with Pets and Moana to some degree as well. 

 

Tarzan - the luckiest flop of the whole summer. BFG stole all the article headlines and it even came in a couple notches above tracking. And budget aside 39 mil is a huge accomplishment for a Tarzan reboot that looked this milquetoast and had seemingly no buzz. I guess sometimes the name is actually enough? I'm curious to see what legs look like, its IM seems really good. I guess you always need a couple movies in the middle to balance the marketplace. 

 

Purge - the new Saw. These things make their budgets back before the film is playing for 18 hours. I guess the only question is if they'll go back to once a year or keep it every other year. Either way Uni is smart to keep them in the summer, this is the first moneymaker they've had all year. 

 

BFG - this one is sad. Over a year ago I thought Spielberg, Dahl and Disney (not Touchstone, like Bridge of Spies or Lincoln) sounded like a really strange mix of sensibilities. A month ago I compared it to Alice 2 in that Disney really had no stake in this film being a success since Amblin split from Disney and the Mouse had far bigger priorities this summer. At the same time giant ugly Mark Rylance is not and will never be a summer movie selling point, and this needed outright raves from critics to convince families it was actually worth the money (not universal cries that this was minor Spielberg). Good news for the Beard is that Ready Player One has everything in its place to be a huge huge success (and Indiana Jones 5 is a license to print money). 

 

IDR - in the summer of bombs this feels like the biggest swing and miss. 105 mil domestic and 350 mil worldwide is a third of the '96 film's UNADJUSTED gross. To think some of us including myself were calling 300 mil for this a couple months ago. 

 

Swiss Army Man - this is the best movie of the summer and deserves more than an ok-ish wide expansion. Nothing is going to come close. The Daniels are going to become the Lord and Miller of the industry pretty soon. 

[tonytr87]

3 hours ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Seems to be two problems in Hollywood right now

 

1. Studios are making the budgets of some movies way too much than they should 

 

2. They're starting to forget how to properly market a movie (Jurassic World and Star Wars were powerhouses last year in that department so I don't see what's going on now)

 

Especially the first one. I don't think any Tarzan movie, no matter how good it was, could make much more than this one did in 2016. 180mil is crazy for a Tarzan movie. 

[DAJK]

Tarzan was ok. Not great, and the first half was kinda slow, and the climax never REALLY had that final payoff. But the performances were fine and I liked Yates' "pure adventure" approach.

[Kalo]

On 7/3/2016 at 11:55 AM, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

Thanks to it's 180m budget, it's still probably going to lose WB a lot of money.

 

Yeah I know, it sucks it will still kind of be a disappointment BO wise, but still it's almost garenteed to hit $100m now. maybe even close to $150m.  that is a feat a lot of people were saying was not achievable beforehand.

[dxmatrixdt]

Edge of Tomorrow

Domestic - 100.21

Overseas - 270.34

Budget - 178.00

[POTUS 2020]

14 hours ago, MikeQ said:

For me, I started following in 2001 with Lord of the Rings. The films coming out were a big thing for me, because I had read the book when I was young, and it had made a huge impression on me. There was a LOTR/Tolkien fan site I discovered and frequented, and they would link to the daily box office gross of LOTR at BOM.

 

I started following the film's daily gross, hoping every day that the gross would go up rather than down, and wishing for it to stay at #1 and not fall against other films. Back during that time, I would constantly refresh the Box Office Mojo home page, hoping to see the "Updated at" notice in the top right corner change to say the numbers had just been recently updated.

 

It seems silly now that I know so much more about box office, heh, but it started my interest in box office, and the BOM forums created a huge community of like-minded nerds like me. I'm still sad that place is gone, and wish BOM did more to cultivate a box office community like they used to. They used to run a weekend box office prediction contest, which kept stats on how well people were doing and was, from my perspective, the holy grail of box office prediction contests. If you were on the top of the charts in this contest, you were noticed -- and those at the top at the end of the year were the best. I was pretty good back in that day. 

 

Peace,

Mike

we have a derby here now. Sign up, its better than Mojos. We have weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual champs as well as a quarterly elimination tournament, all with prizes. And we update the derby leaderboard as the weekend progresses to see how you're doing

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/forum/77-box-office-derby/

Edited July 5, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Fancyarcher]

1 hour ago, Kalo said:

 

Yeah I know, it sucks it will still kind of be a disappointment BO wise, but still it's almost garenteed to hit $100m now. maybe even close to $150m.  that is a feat a lot of people were saying was not achievable beforehand.

 

I'll admit, it's opening weekend numbers certainly surprised me a bit, but then again lowered expectations will do that.

[MovieMan89]

7 hours ago, Frozen said:

These two old ladies in front of me in line were fighting because one wanted to see Dory and the other was all "It's a cartoon! I don't care how much money it made! I'm not seeing that!" 

Oldies calling animated films "cartoons" and proceeding to act like they can only be for kids is legit one of my biggest pet peeves in life. And I've never met anyone over the age of like 50 who doesn't think that way, save for my Mom, thank goodness. 

[AniNate]

Yeah, there's a big freaking difference between a 15-minute indulgence in insanity that is an episode of Gumball (hilarious show, btw) and a cinematic fantasy drama w/ comedic elements that most Pixar films entail

[ChiSoxRox]

I was just old enough to know that Titanic and Phantom Menace were huge movies, but I didn't get drawn into box office numbers until The Dark Knight (when I was sixteen). Although I prefer the more personal and esoteric at times reports of The Numbers.

 

I love statistics and records as well as history, and am a keen baseball fan for similar reasons (White Sox).

[stripe]

Glad and surprised to see Tarzan is going to gross +120M DOM. 

IDR is also going to cross that milestone. 110M seems to be the goal.

 

 

 

 

 

[a2k]

Tarzan will fall ~50% from the 3-day 38.5m OW. So best to keep expectations sub-15m for the next weekend. The weekdays will be very good throughout the run though. I am less optimistic than some and thinking 110m dom at most. Even with a 180m budget that looks ok compared to some disappointments this year and WB bombs last year. 110m dom / 400m ww on a 180m budget is on path to break even.

 

EDIT: Wrong math

Edited July 5, 2016 by a2knet