Weekend #s: Sully 22M, Blair Witch 9.6M, Bridget Jones 8.2M, Snowden 8M, DB 5.6M, WTBB 5.5M, Squad 4.7M

[Jason]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

I like how people are not even supposed to celebrate a movie having a good run anymore. After the 2nd weekend, a lot of users here said 280-290 would be where it would end up, exceeding that by 30-40M or more is now expected? In hindsight, it is always easy to make up reasons for why a movie has managed to keep going at the box office - where were you when the second weekend drop happened? Did you come out at that time and say it would have good late legs and breach the 320M barrier?

 

Everyone in this thread pretty much being Captain Hindsight with respect to Suicide Squad's run "It was always going to have good late legs"

 

It may very well be that there are many people here who were predicting under $300M at the time (my own recollection is that it was pretty mixed). But the fact is that a statistical analysis can easily show that Suicide Squad's current performance is well within the normal range of what would be expected from its 10-day performance.

 

I am definitely not the only one who suggested a total over $300M was probable, and there were people who did it more confidently than I did (for example, @EmpireCity above). But since I don't have time to dig up anyone else's posts:

Most relevant to the discussion at hand:

Quote

The combined metric of 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW has a stronger correlation than either of the metrics alone, P=0.14, that falls short of the usual standard of statistical significance (P<0.05) but I think is still worth considering for these purposes. Here CBMs are mostly quite close to the general trendline, with the obvious exception being Guardians of the Galaxy. Using the weekend estimate of $44M for Suicide Squad, the combined metric = 0.50. By visual inspection, that suggests a most probable multiplier of 2.2-2.4, for a final gross of $294M to $321M.

 

For the record, I am quite happy about Suicide Squad's run.

 

Spoiler

Another victory for math. 

 

Edited September 19, 2016 by Jason

[EmpireCity]

Great post.  I also think the evidence is in a couple things, the first being that it still has 2,700+ theaters at this point and you will see those theaters slashed dramatically starting this week as the competition heats up.  It won't be holding anywhere near the 17% drop it enjoyed this past weekend.  

 

There are basically 7 wide releases in the next 10 days and it sits at $313m total.  The following week after that has another 4 more wide releases.  It isn't getting much above where it is now and the harsh drops are coming as it quickly goes under 800 theaters.  

Edited September 19, 2016 by EmpireCity

[Brainiac5]

39 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

Brainiac, you should go to the other thread. Your fierce defense of SS is better there. Your analysis of SS relative to DP is kinda strange. 

 

No haters trolling is better there.

How is that strange when it's true.

Sure Deadpool have the multiplier I only said 

"SS will only be second to Deadpool "as far as Multiplier's for cbm's of 2016.

Tell me how my "analysis " is incorrect?

Your fierce defense of Deadpool tells me your clearly not thinking correctly and is out to troll anything that compares to it.

When it's all said and done the top 3 multipliers for cbm's of 2016

Will be in this order 

1.DP

2.SS

3.X:A.

Deal with it

 

Edited September 19, 2016 by Brainiac5

[Jason]

Here's another way of looking at it.

 

From the-numbers.com, a graph of Suicide Squad's box office run:

Quote

Chart Date	values
Aug 5, 2016	$64,893,248
Aug 6, 2016	$103,472,080
Aug 7, 2016	$133,682,248
Aug 8, 2016	$146,825,722
Aug 9, 2016	$161,087,183
Aug 10, 2016	$170,902,561
Aug 11, 2016	$179,104,728
Aug 12, 2016	$192,208,522
Aug 13, 2016	$209,739,099
Aug 14, 2016	$222,640,741
Aug 15, 2016	$227,644,021
Aug 16, 2016	$233,877,319
Aug 17, 2016	$238,002,651
Aug 18, 2016	$241,573,335
Aug 19, 2016	$247,582,028
Aug 20, 2016	$256,228,719
Aug 21, 2016	$262,428,736
Aug 22, 2016	$264,563,751
Aug 23, 2016	$267,255,014
Aug 24, 2016	$269,082,409
Aug 25, 2016	$270,772,627
Aug 26, 2016	$274,082,568
Aug 27, 2016	$279,570,478
Aug 28, 2016	$283,021,066
Aug 29, 2016	$284,082,210
Aug 30, 2016	$285,462,545
Aug 31, 2016	$286,417,209
Sep 1, 2016	$287,417,316
Sep 2, 2016	$289,733,466
Sep 3, 2016	$293,563,648
Sep 4, 2016	$297,327,572
Sep 5, 2016	$300,104,337
Sep 6, 2016	$300,812,503
Sep 7, 2016	$301,312,812
Sep 8, 2016	$301,757,853
Sep 9, 2016	$303,209,307
Sep 10, 2016	$305,988,982
Sep 11, 2016	$307,480,891
Sep 12, 2016	$307,859,516
Sep 13, 2016	$308,363,870
Sep 14, 2016	$308,721,936
Sep 15, 2016	$309,072,332
Sep 16, 2016	$310,264,430
Sep 17, 2016	$312,521,443
Sep 18, 2016	$313,774,166

 

The shaded area represents the expected performance range for a film, based on its opening weekend box office. 95% of films fall within the shaded area. If a film trends towards the top end of the shaded area, it has good legs compared to the average film; if it trends towards the bottom end of the shaded area, it has poor legs.

 

The yellow line starts off low, which is typical for comic book adaptations which tend to front-loaded. After that, since the yellow line is neither moving up nor down (at least not significantly) it means that Suicide Squad's late legs are essentially average (at least for the sample being used in the model, for which no details are provided but I presume is all films in their database).

 

For reference, this is what (really) good late legs looks like (guess which film I'm using as an example ):

Spoiler

Chart Date	values
Mar 4, 2016	$19,500,008
Mar 5, 2016	$51,136,210
Mar 6, 2016	$75,063,401
Mar 7, 2016	$79,607,075
Mar 8, 2016	$84,982,043
Mar 9, 2016	$88,706,867
Mar 10, 2016	$92,615,126
Mar 11, 2016	$104,699,203
Mar 12, 2016	$127,396,051
Mar 13, 2016	$143,955,013
Mar 14, 2016	$148,556,193
Mar 15, 2016	$154,609,402
Mar 16, 2016	$159,216,918
Mar 17, 2016	$163,765,497
Mar 18, 2016	$173,359,662
Mar 19, 2016	$189,593,576
Mar 20, 2016	$200,929,655
Mar 21, 2016	$204,654,233
Mar 22, 2016	$209,340,762
Mar 23, 2016	$212,919,799
Mar 24, 2016	$217,409,409
Mar 25, 2016	$226,952,587
Mar 26, 2016	$235,487,975
Mar 27, 2016	$241,431,697
Mar 28, 2016	$246,174,642
Mar 29, 2016	$249,856,492
Mar 30, 2016	$252,738,048
Mar 31, 2016	$255,939,310
Apr 1, 2016	$261,520,777
Apr 2, 2016	$269,874,117
Apr 3, 2016	$275,264,601
Apr 4, 2016	$276,665,885
Apr 5, 2016	$278,579,917
Apr 6, 2016	$280,078,634
Apr 7, 2016	$281,659,482
Apr 8, 2016	$285,139,686
Apr 9, 2016	$291,848,419
Apr 10, 2016	$296,004,904
Apr 11, 2016	$296,786,844
Apr 12, 2016	$297,849,421
Apr 13, 2016	$298,574,716
Apr 14, 2016	$299,243,756
Apr 15, 2016	$301,456,365
Apr 16, 2016	$305,247,285
Apr 17, 2016	$307,386,397
Apr 18, 2016	$307,939,839
Apr 19, 2016	$308,701,111
Apr 20, 2016	$309,258,949
Apr 21, 2016	$309,824,606
Apr 22, 2016	$311,599,401
Apr 23, 2016	$314,693,346
Apr 24, 2016	$316,404,151
Apr 25, 2016	$316,866,309
Apr 26, 2016	$317,554,942
Apr 27, 2016	$318,022,027
Apr 28, 2016	$318,512,489
Apr 29, 2016	$319,763,154
Apr 30, 2016	$322,243,582
May 1, 2016	$323,841,347
May 2, 2016	$324,104,712
May 3, 2016	$324,443,217
May 4, 2016	$324,713,976
May 5, 2016	$324,947,990
May 6, 2016	$325,663,833
May 7, 2016	$326,994,380
May 8, 2016	$328,162,582
May 9, 2016	$328,362,195
May 10, 2016	$328,621,312
May 11, 2016	$328,813,963
May 12, 2016	$329,014,439
May 13, 2016	$329,620,671
May 14, 2016	$330,946,606
May 15, 2016	$331,840,173
May 16, 2016	$332,036,912
May 17, 2016	$332,314,545
May 18, 2016	$332,515,562
May 19, 2016	$332,700,528
May 20, 2016	$333,084,096
May 21, 2016	$333,879,563
May 22, 2016	$334,384,510
May 23, 2016	$334,571,801
May 24, 2016	$334,738,315
May 25, 2016	$334,889,751
May 26, 2016	$335,043,645
May 27, 2016	$335,225,836
May 28, 2016	$335,539,110
May 29, 2016	$335,845,392
May 30, 2016	$336,164,834
May 31, 2016	$336,258,682
Jun 1, 2016	$336,345,926
Jun 2, 2016	$336,429,682
Jun 3, 2016	$336,615,705
Jun 4, 2016	$336,925,332
Jun 5, 2016	$337,183,405
Jun 6, 2016	$337,291,584
Jun 7, 2016	$337,413,871
Jun 8, 2016	$337,526,966
Jun 9, 2016	$337,641,519
Jun 10, 2016	$337,805,533
Jun 11, 2016	$338,038,778
Jun 12, 2016	$338,198,507
Jun 13, 2016	$338,272,113
Jun 14, 2016	$338,370,729
Jun 15, 2016	$338,464,335
Jun 16, 2016	$338,559,489
Jun 17, 2016	$338,919,085
Jun 18, 2016	$339,305,163
Jun 19, 2016	$339,507,242
Jun 20, 2016	$339,638,383
Jun 21, 2016	$339,794,671
Jun 22, 2016	$339,938,524
Jun 23, 2016	$340,089,142
Jun 24, 2016	$340,178,004
Jun 25, 2016	$340,287,166
Jun 26, 2016	$340,361,033
Jun 27, 2016	$340,400,722
Jun 28, 2016	$340,456,108
Jun 29, 2016	$340,502,726
Jun 30, 2016	$340,551,819
Jul 1, 2016	$340,602,217
Jul 2, 2016	$340,667,809
Jul 3, 2016	$340,719,787
Jul 4, 2016	$340,757,752
Jul 5, 2016	$340,789,040
Jul 6, 2016	$340,821,508
Jul 7, 2016	$340,855,247
Jul 8, 2016	$340,896,110
Jul 9, 2016	$340,947,580
Jul 10, 2016	$340,984,985
Jul 11, 2016	$341,004,124
Jul 12, 2016	$341,028,307
Jul 13, 2016	$341,050,099
Jul 14, 2016	$341,072,546
Jul 15, 2016	$341,093,394
Jul 16, 2016	$341,120,268
Jul 17, 2016	$341,141,156
Jul 18, 2016	$341,153,072
Jul 19, 2016	$341,168,115
Jul 20, 2016	$341,181,835
Jul 21, 2016	$341,196,778
Jul 22, 2016	$341,206,328
Jul 23, 2016	$341,220,454
Jul 24, 2016	$341,231,062
Jul 25, 2016	$341,236,516
Jul 26, 2016	$341,243,244
Jul 27, 2016	$341,250,430
Jul 28, 2016	$341,257,194
Jul 29, 2016	$341,259,229
Jul 30, 2016	$341,261,868
Jul 31, 2016	$341,264,012
Aug 1, 2016	$341,264,857
Aug 2, 2016	$341,265,761
Aug 3, 2016	$341,266,626
Aug 4, 2016	$341,268,248

 

 

Edited September 19, 2016 by Jason

[a2k]

DP 2.74x Original 133+ ow

SS 2.43x Original 133+ ow

XA 2.36x Sequel 65+ ow

CW 2.28x Sequel 179 ow

SS 1.99x ? 166 ow

 

Not surprisingly, 1st 2 are originals. XA's OW is very small compared to the rest of CBMs, especially CW.

Edited September 19, 2016 by a2knet

[Brainiac5]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

DP 2.74x Original

SS 2.43x Original

XA 2.36x Sequel

CW 2.28x Sequel

SS 1.99x ?

 

Not surprisingly, 1st 2 are originals.

Let see how many people hate this list only because it's truth. 

[a2k]

Actuals in black

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Sully	Warner Bros.	$21,653,017	-38%	3,525	$6,143	$70,194,368	10
2	new	Blair Witch	Lionsgate	$9,650,000		3,121	$3,092	$9,650,000	3
3	new	Bridget Jones’s Baby	Universal	$8,571,785		2,927	$2,929	$8,571,785	3
4	(3)	Don’t Breathe	Sony Pictures	$5,640,232	-32%	3,208	$1,758	$75,369,013	24
5	(2)	When the Bough Breaks	Sony Pictures	$5,483,126	-61%	2,246	$2,441	$22,655,858	10
6	new	Snowden	Open Road	$4,953,389		2,443	$2,028	$8,000,058	3
7	(4)	Suicide Squad	Warner Bros.	$4,701,834	-18%	2,740	$1,716	$313,774,166	45
8	(5)	The Wild Life	Lionsgate	$2,650,000	-21%	2,493	$1,063	$6,664,269	10
9	(6)	Kubo and the Two Strings	Focus Features	$2,540,031	-23%	1,757	$1,446	$44,272,005	31
10	(7)	Pete’s Dragon	Walt Disney	$2,041,000	-34%	1,948	$1,048	$72,805,525	38
11	(9)	Hell or High Water	Lionsgate	$1,925,000	-22%	1,505	$1,279	$22,725,531	38
12	(8)	Bad Moms	STX Entertainment	$1,794,615	-31%	1,486	$1,208	$110,039,543	52
13	new	Hillsong: Let Hope Rise	Pure Flix Entertain…	$1,300,000		816	$1,593	$1,300,000	3
14	(11)	No Manches Frida	Lionsgate	$1,250,000	-41%	456	$2,741	$9,154,109	17
15	(16)	The Secret Life of Pets	Universal	$1,231,895	-20%	1,005	$1,226	$363,388,255	73
16	(10)	Sausage Party	Sony Pictures	$1,203,151	-49%	1,181	$1,019	$95,338,012	38
17	(14)	Jason Bourne	Universal	$1,098,085	-37%	1,008	$1,089	$160,408,000	52
18	(12)	War Dogs	Warner Bros.	$1,025,050	-49%	902	$1,136	$41,675,235	31
19	(15)	Mechanic: Resurrection	Lionsgate	$850,000	-50%	958	$887	$20,190,569	24
20	new	The Beatles: Eight Days a W…	Abramorama Films	$772,467		165	$4,682	$772,467	3
21	(13)	The Light Between Oceans	Walt Disney	$769,000	-58%	1,133	$679	$11,169,776	17
22	(18)	Star Trek Beyond	Paramount Pictures	$618,720	-34%	508	$1,218	$157,552,406	59
23	(19)	Florence Foster Jenkins	Paramount Pictures	$392,863	-54%	567	$693	$26,555,545	38
24	(17)	The Disappointments Room	Relativity	$377,322	-73%	1,554	$243	$2,218,097	10
25	new	Mr. Church	Cinelou Releasing	$338,378		354	$956	$338,378	3
26	(23)	Finding Dory	Walt Disney	$317,000	-24%	292	$1,086	$483,956,392	94
27	(28)	Ice Age: Collision Course	20th Century Fox	$238,035	-13%	239	$996	$63,463,371	59
28	(21)	Ben-Hur	Paramount Pictures	$231,766	-59%	438	$529	$26,041,585	31
29	(24)	Lights Out	Warner Bros.	$210,401	-33%	282	$746	$67,056,461	59

[a2k]

Sully breakdown

2016/09/16	1	$6,533,032	+135%	3,525	$1,853	$55,074,383	8
2016/09/17	-	$9,556,921	+46%	3,525	$2,711	$64,631,304	9
2016/09/18	-	$5,563,064	-42%	3,525	$1,578	$70,194,368	10

 

2016/09/16

1

$21,653,017

-38%

3,525

$6,143

$70,194,368

10

[Johnny Tran]

There were still plenty of options. There's been a ton of horrors out which is the same demographic. There was Bourne and Star Trek out. We aren't talking about one solid hold. SS has been holding very well for weeks and will wind up with a multiplier considerably higher than CW and BVS.

 

Also, these days people are more likely to stay home if they aren't feeling it.  Netflix and chill  isn't just a meme. It's reality.  OR these people would go on Tuesday when it's dirt cheap.  Nobody is going out to a movie they don't want to see on a Summer/early Fall weekend when the weather is still beautiful.  People are going to see SS because they want to see it.

Edited September 19, 2016 by Johnny Tran

[DAR]

Both films were very successful from a box office standpoint, let's just move forward.

[Jonwo]

I'm guessing Sully will hit $100m by next Sunday assuming it has a good drop against Mag 7 and Storks. Considering nobody thought it would do more than $60-80m total, it's a win for WB

[a2k]

Don't Breathe Weekends

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2016/08/26	1	$26,411,706		3,051	$8,657	$26,411,706	3
2016/09/02	1	$15,833,223	-40%	3,051	$5,190	$51,257,175	10
2016/09/09	3	$8,250,225	-48%	3,384	$2,438	$66,873,383	17
2016/09/16	4	$5,640,232	-32%	3,208	$1,758	$75,369,013	24

 

Last Mon-Thu it did 2.85, 50% of the 5.64 weekend that followed.

 

So 9.5 from all remaining weekends combined (3.6+2.2+1.3+0.8+0.5+0.25+0.4+0.25+0.15),

and 4.75 (50% of 9.5) from all remaining weekdays combined for ~90 could happen.

[Johnny Tran]

WB had a good Summer and is now having a pretty sweet September.

[filmlover]

Give me a break.

 

Break me off a piece of that Kit Kat bar.

 

[Jonwo]

14 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

WB had a good Summer and is now having a pretty sweet September.

 

October should be solid with The Accountant and Fantastic Beasts will do great in November. 

[AHepBurn]

5 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

WB had a good Summer and is now having a pretty sweet September.

Upcoming movies for WB are:

 

Storks	Warner Bros.	9/23/16
The Accountant	Warner Bros.	10/14/16
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them	Warner Bros.	11/18/16
Collateral Beauty	Warner Bros. (New Line)	12/16/16

 

Storks I can see doing fine since there's a dearth of new family entertainment, Wild Life crashed and it's a good alternative to Magnificent Seven. The Accountant I can see doing well since Affleck seems to have increased his profile even more playing Batman and we're into awards season. Fantastic Beasts should do well and close out their year of tentpoles with (what I continue to believe will be the only) $200-$299mil domestic earner. And Collateral Beauty opens alongside Rogue One, but is one of WB's low budget films that can pull in an older audience for the holidays.

 

So all-in-all, unless Fantastic Beasts unexpectedly tanks, WB should close out the year in style. I haven't fully looked at the possibilities for Rogue One, but thus far it's looking like WB will have the highest return-on-investment for every dollar they've spent this year.

[Jonwo]

7 minutes ago, AHepBurn said:

Upcoming movies for WB are:

 

Storks	Warner Bros.	9/23/16
The Accountant	Warner Bros.	10/14/16
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them	Warner Bros.	11/18/16
Collateral Beauty	Warner Bros. (New Line)	12/16/16

 

Storks I can see doing fine since there's a dearth of new family entertainment, Wild Life crashed and it's a good alternative to Magnificent Seven. The Accountant I can see doing well since Affleck seems to have increased his profile even more playing Batman and we're into awards season. Fantastic Beasts should do well and close out their year of tentpoles with (what I continue to believe will be the only) $200-$299mil domestic earner. And Collateral Beauty opens alongside Rogue One, but is one of WB's low budget films that can pull in an older audience for the holidays.

 

So all-in-all, unless Fantastic Beasts unexpectedly tanks, WB should close out the year in style. I haven't fully looked at the possibilities for Rogue One, but thus far it's looking like WB will have the highest return-on-investment for every dollar they've spent this year.

 

Warner Bros has had a good balance of tentpoles and midbudget titles, New Line Cinema has been on a roll with their films being profitable. 

[Arlborn]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

DP 2.74x Original 133+ ow

SS 2.43x Original 133+ ow

XA 2.36x Sequel 65+ ow

CW 2.28x Sequel 179 ow

SS 1.99x ? 166 ow

 

Not surprisingly, 1st 2 are originals. XA's OW is very small compared to the rest of CBMs, especially CW.

The problem with Apocalypse was the stupid audience not showing up its OW. Its legs weren't bad at all.

 

This year seems to be showing us that superhero movies have a tendency to be pretty front-loaded. In this scenario SS's legs are literally a bit above average. Let it rest.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

DP 2.74x Original 133+ ow

SS 2.43x Original 133+ ow

XA 2.36x Sequel 65+ ow

CW 2.28x Sequel 179 ow

SS 1.99x ? 166 ow

 

Not surprisingly, 1st 2 are originals. XA's OW is very small compared to the rest of CBMs, especially CW.

I was confused there for a bit. Did you mean to type BvS for that last example?

[Brainiac5]

10 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

The problem with Apocalypse was the stupid audience not showing up its OW. Its legs weren't bad at all.

 

This year seems to be showing us that superhero movies have a tendency to be pretty front-loaded. In this scenario SS's legs are literally a bit above average. Let it rest.

Anything better than average is good.