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JUSTICE LEAGUE | 427.2 M overseas ● 654.4 M worldwide

By kayumanggi, in International Box Office

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, MattW said:

(and if you use WB's publicly released Harry Potter ratios instead, 0.555 domestic, 0.46 overseas instead of 0.5 and 0.39 you get $412m from the box office alone)

Would be an optimist one, in that time no box office from China with a 25% retention rate like now.

 

But you are right.

On 11/8/2017 at 11:48 AM, titanic2187 said:

Given that $300m production budget, this movie may needs $1b to break even, which could be hard for DCEU if WOM isn't great.....

Would be curious how you came up with that number, it is true that revenues for the same box office are maybe going down in recent year's, but a 3.333 multi for break even for a giant budget movie sound really high, specially one that play heavy domestic. The difference in box office between break even and say the 14% ROI can be giant.

 

For example Amazing Spider man 2

 

Main expense (at break even point):

Net budget: $261m

World release spent: $195m 

Parcipation bonus: $39.5m

Overhead: $31m

Residual: $15m

 

 

The estimated break even point for the studio point of view

216.7m dbo / 400m intl, 616m WW (that would give an estimated $578.38m in revenue)

 

Return GP break (for the studio to make a 14% return

298.5m dbo / 549.8m intl, 848.3m WW (that would give around $748.98m in revenue)

 

That big amount to do over the break even point to reach a nice rentability level has many reason, for example often talent participation bonus start to kick after the Break even point in many movie or become bigger after that point, co-financier also, often the studio pay themselve first and start to pay a bigger percentage to the venture capitalist after a certain zone, them taking a bigger risk of risking all but making a larger ROI in case of success. There is some revenues that can not scale up in a linear way, Netflix for example.

 

If a movie need 1 billion to reach just a profit of 1$ (so a 800 million total expense or something of the sort), doing a nice ROI of 120-150m, could require to do something like 1.35/1.4b

 

Take a movie like Deepwater Horizon that had a $156m gross budget and a around 130m net budget, I doubt it needed to do over 400m just to break even and 535m to make sense financially to do, it would have never been greenlight.

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
Posted
On 11/8/2017 at 10:39 AM, bruchav said:

No, it's not, 007 would never get $ 543m OS If it had bad reviews like BVS had, Bond is clearly stronger only in Europe, but that includes all  superhero brands, including you beloved Marvel.

Spectre did 680m with a 60% RT score, not sure about never.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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As I posted in China PS thread, I think 100m for JL can happen with above average WOM. Its PS will be ahead of Thor for sure. So with 100m in China I see it hit 550m OS for sure. I cant see it below Suicide Squad for OS-C. Mexico Cinepolis issue has resolved and so that would be a big market as well. Latin America and Asia will play a big role along with commonwealth (UK/AU) and France which is SH friendly. I see this beat BvS even in markets like Russia and Germany. 

 

I am optimistically predicting 600m at this point with better run than BvS.  

 

 

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
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2 minutes ago, NamakFiskKa said:

We know what a fresh DCEU movie is capable of

Not exactly sure what you mean DCEU intl performance

 

Man of steel: 377m

Wonder woman (fresh): 409.5m

Suicide squad: 420.5m

BvS: 542.9m

 

The only fresh movie of the DCEU did the least intl I think (377m in 2013 was probably a bit higher market share wise than 409.5) or at least not specially an high amount. I am not so sure if we known much, it is unclear how relevant to the box office a 50 or 65 RT score is in the domestic market, it is even less clear oversea, each market has is own reviews and so on.

 

Last 2 Bond

Skyfall (great reception + olympics and so on): 804.2m

Spectre (mediocre reception): 680.6m

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Heretic Global Phenomenon

Heretic

Posted
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Doubt this does more than BvS in UK. Pre-sales looks quite weak actually. The BFI IMAX which usually sells out whole opening weekends for blockbusters like this hasnt even sold out one showing, not even Friday night or midnight. I sense some disappointment coming unless walk ups are huge.. 

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aabattery Global Phenomenon

aabattery

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Heretic said:

Doubt this does more than BvS in UK. Pre-sales looks quite weak actually. The BFI IMAX which usually sells out whole opening weekends for blockbusters like this hasnt even sold out one showing, not even Friday night or midnight. I sense some disappointment coming unless walk ups are huge.. 

 

Just had a look at some of the local chains here in NZ and it's pretty much the same boat. Maybe it'll pick up over the week but it's definitely a heck of a lot lower than BvS at the same point.

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bruchav Indie Sensation

bruchav

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Barnack said:

Not exactly sure what you mean DCEU intl performance

 

Man of steel: 377m

Wonder woman (fresh): 409.5m

Suicide squad: 420.5m

BvS: 542.9m

 

The only fresh movie of the DCEU did the least intl I think (377m in 2013 was probably a bit higher market share wise than 409.5) or at least not specially an high amount. I am not so sure if we known much, it is unclear how relevant to the box office a 50 or 65 RT score is in the domestic market, it is even less clear oversea, each market has is own reviews and so on.

 

Last 2 Bond

Skyfall (great reception + olympics and so on): 804.2m

Spectre (mediocre reception): 680.6m

 

Skyfall Adjusted for the 2017 exchange rates would have made $662m.

007 was not a monster before these 2 movies, and as you can see Spectre already had a  drop, unless the next Bond had Nolan as a director, I'm pretty sure that 007 will fall again in the next movie.

Spectre does not have 27% critical approval like BVS, it continues with fresh reviews of 63%, if the next 007 film has 40% -50% critical approval, I doubt it will be able to reach $500M OS.

 

 

"Wonder woman (fresh): 409.5m"

 

Wonder Woman is the first successful  female lead superhero movie, and I'm sure she had to break down barriers in some markets because of that, And the first Wonder Woman movie,  sequels to all  (sucessfull)  Hollywood blockbusters has a huge boost in the international markets.  and 007 has movies since the 60s, he is  a much more well known character internationally,  Skyfall and Spectre were  sequels of Bond/Daniel Craig, he already had Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace before Skyfall and Spectre.
 

 

And the $420.5m OS of Suicide Squad is without China.

 

Edited by bruchav
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DeeCee Global Phenomenon

DeeCee

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, aabattery said:

 

Just had a look at some of the local chains here in NZ and it's pretty much the same boat. Maybe it'll pick up over the week but it's definitely a heck of a lot lower than BvS at the same point.

Same here. The theatres don’t even seem to have full confidence. Some of them still don’t have full scheduling on their large format screens. 

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JJ-8 Blockbuster

JJ-8

Posted
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On 10/11/2017 at 7:40 PM, DeeCee said:

Same here. The theatres don’t even seem to have full confidence. Some of them still don’t have full scheduling on their large format screens. 

Yeah. I've noted no early shows/mids. Presales are weak from what I can tell. Would be shocker if Thor 3 threepeated down under. E.g.  I did review of presales for Thursday at 1 venue (normally quite strong) and it's like 10%-20% of avail seats sold to date. 

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newbie BO buff Sleeper Hit

newbie BO buff

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/13/2017 at 11:04 PM, kayumanggi said:

What are the very first territories to get this? It opens here on the 16th.

Indonesia opens today, 15 Nov. Some special sneaks yesterday.

 

Screen count 840+ out of about 1450 total

Edited by newbie BO buff
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