Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Hmm....

 

Looks like Moana could be Dwayne Johnson's 2nd movie to hit over $300M DOM....(first one being Furious 7 = $353M DOM).

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Hmm....

 

Looks like Moana could be Dwayne Johnson's 2nd movie to hit over $300M DOM....(first one being Furious 7 = $353M DOM).

 

And than comes Furious 8. Dwayne's on fire. 

[Gopher]

Hi everybody!

 

MOANA: Let's break down what can happen over the week - 

 

Thurs- 9.8m (-25% w/o previews, which would be a bit bigger than Good Dinosaur's or Frozen's drop)

Fri- 24m (145%) 

Sat- 22.7m (-5.5%) 

Sun- 13.6m (-40%)

 

Wknd - 60.3m/85.8m. I could be overestimating how frontloaded this could play but I'm inclined to air on the side of a heavier Thanksgiving drop. Curious where legs will take it from here, I could see anything between 230m and 330m total. 

 

FANTASTIC BEASTS - using Potter/Twilight comps this will hit 37-42m for the 3-day frame, which isn't a bad drop but not much to fall from in the first place. Should be on track for a 200m finish, probably not much higher than that though. 

 

ARRIVAL - Should stay flat from last weekend which is pretty sweet. Oscar now makes the difference between 90m and 100m+. 

 

ALLIED - Yawn. 

 

BAD SANTA - Nobody wanted this

 

TROLLS - 150-180m feels like best case scenario for the DWA brand the past few years. They probably won't break this until SHREK 5.

 

RULES DON'T APPLY - Nobody was interested in the story of a lovable eccentric billionaire? I wonder why

 

EDGE OF SEVENTEEN - Will any of you go out and see this movie? It's phenomenal, and already the year's most underrated. 

[La Binoche]

No Manchester number? 

[Finnick]

 

HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL BOT 's  AMERICAN MEMBERS

[CoolioD1]

bonnie and clyde is one of my favourite movies. but i run pretty cold on everrrrrything else warren beatty has done (except bullworth is ok i guess still not great). whatever. this new shit looked like some SNL parody. 

[cannastop]

Just now, CoolioD1 said:

bonnie and clyde is one of my favourite movies. but i run pretty cold on everrrrrything else warren beatty has done (except bullworth is ok i guess still not great). whatever. this new shit looked like some SNL parody. 

"I want Banana Nut Ice cream!"

[Eric S'ennui]

6 minutes ago, Gopher said:

EDGE OF SEVENTEEN - Will any of you go out and see this movie? It's phenomenal, and already the year's most underrated. 

 

I saw an advance screening, and I'm crossing my fingers that I'll be able to take my sisters to it on Saturday.

[CoolioD1]

also i don't think bad santa 2 looked particularly good (the original is a christmas standard for me btw) but i do think it's pretty lame how many reviews mention donald trump. like is every comedy with a boorish asshole lead gonna get shut down by critics for the next 4 years? legitimately people writing shit like "we can't laugh at bad santa cos bad santa is in the white house" lmao get the fuck over yourself.

[Maxmoser3]

Moana doing fantastic numbers! Allied isn't surprising, the trailer made it look predictable, and I think the possibility of Brad Pitt/Marion Cotilard having a thing with each other on the set and it killed his marriage with Angelina Joilie. 

[Jake Gittes]

If Moana follows Frozen's drops and increases adjusted for bigger previews it gets 63m 3-day and 89m 5-day. Using Tangled as a comparison from there on out it looks good for 250m DOM. Even that's still not locked cause it might be more frontloaded and/or suffer more from the late December competition. I think 230-270m is a good range right now, it'd have to behave abnormally to land outside that. And I'm guessing around 700m WW. 

[Jake Gittes]

17 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

bonnie and clyde is one of my favourite movies. but i run pretty cold on everrrrrything else warren beatty has done (except bullworth is ok i guess still not great). whatever. this new shit looked like some SNL parody. 

 

I really wanna see Reds and Dick Tracy, the latter if only for its visuals. Still more interested in stuff he only acted in, namely McCabe and The Parallax View.

[Valonqar]

Allied is also hit by Hacksaw Ridge popularity. It's the WW2 movie that people are interested in. I know that Allied being a romance was supposed to counter-program that but as far as period pieces go, one always emerges as the favorite and that's HR. 

[babz06]

I wouldn't say 300m is locked for Moana. There is no telling how Sing is going to affect it's late legs. 

[Fancyarcher]

9 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

I really wanna see Reds and Dick Tracy, the latter if only for its visuals. Still more interested in stuff he only acted in, namely McCabe and The Parallax View.

 

 

The Parallax View is a solid thriller, and Reds and McCabe are pretty terrific. Among Beatty's other films, I'd also recommend Mickey-One, a pre-Bonnie and Clyde film he did with Arthur Penn, not great but interesting nonetheless. 

[grey ghost]

14 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Moana doing fantastic numbers! Allied isn't surprising, the trailer made it look predictable, and I think the possibility of Brad Pitt/Marion Cotilard having a thing with each other on the set and it killed his marriage with Angelina Joilie. 

 

Doing spy movies are a bad omen for Pitt's relationships.

[CoolioD1]

reds is too goddamn long and dick tracy is fucking ghastly. just an all round cringe fest. i don't get how The Spirit gets shit on and dick tracy makes $100 million and gets oscar nominations they're the same fucking thing.

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Poor Queen Bennett.

 

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Doing spy movies are a bad omen for Pitt's relationships.

 

Spy Game didn't hurt him any but then Redford was his co-star.

[Elessar]

2 hours ago, Celedhring said:

Fantastic hold for Hacksaw! 70s should be certain now. C'mon Hollywood, let Mel make more movies (even if he's nuts).

 

~10 Oscar nominations -> January re-expansion -> $100m 

Edited November 24, 2016 by Elessar