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FlashMaster659

Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

By FlashMaster659, in Numbers and Data

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted

Earlier we were talking about 2 times gross to budget and if that was still the formula that we should be using.

 

I sent a message on Facebook to the producer of Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Purge and so on (Brad Fuller). I have been lucky enough 2 have him respond to me whenever I have questions for him.

 

He said that the formula for every movie to break even is very complicated. He said you cannot use any particular multiplier whether it be 2 or 3 or even 4. Everything is different he says because of marketing.

 

For example he said the break even on Friday the 13th was around two times but for the purge it was more like around 4 to 5 times because the marketing Budget on The Purge films are about three to four times with the budget is. He said the marketing budget for Purge 3 was about 3x the budget.

 

So the bottom line is I'm not really sure what we were supposed to use to get to a break-even point. He says smaller budget horror films often have a marketing budget that is around 2 - 4 times as much as the budget for the film so take it from there. LOL

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Jonwo Global Phenomenon

Jonwo

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Earlier we were talking about 2 times gross to budget and if that was still the formula that we should be using.

 

I sent a message on Facebook to the producer of Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Purge and so on (Brad Fuller). I have been lucky enough 2 have him respond to me whenever I have questions for him.

 

He said that the formula for every movie to break even is very complicated. He said you cannot use any particular multiplier whether it be 2 or 3 or even 4. Everything is different he says because of marketing.

 

For example he said the break even on Friday the 13th was around two times but for the purge it was more like around 4 to 5 times because the marketing Budget on The Purge films are about three to four times with the budget is. He said the marketing budget for Purge 3 was about 3x the budget.

 

So the bottom line is I'm not really sure what we were supposed to use to get to a break-even point. He says smaller budget horror films often have a marketing budget that is around 2 - 4 times as much as the budget for the film so take it from there. LOL

 

The Purge's budgets are low so if they spent $10m on the budget and $40m on marketing then it's still only $50m combined so the break even would only be $100m WW so it still made a profit and will have other revenue streams but it's not super profitable as many would think 

 

 

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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Earlier we were talking about 2 times gross to budget and if that was still the formula that we should be using.

 

I sent a message on Facebook to the producer of Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Purge and so on (Brad Fuller). I have been lucky enough 2 have him respond to me whenever I have questions for him.

 

He said that the formula for every movie to break even is very complicated. He said you cannot use any particular multiplier whether it be 2 or 3 or even 4. Everything is different he says because of marketing.

 

For example he said the break even on Friday the 13th was around two times but for the purge it was more like around 4 to 5 times because the marketing Budget on The Purge films are about three to four times with the budget is. He said the marketing budget for Purge 3 was about 3x the budget.

 

So the bottom line is I'm not really sure what we were supposed to use to get to a break-even point. He says smaller budget horror films often have a marketing budget that is around 2 - 4 times as much as the budget for the film so take it from there. LOL

 

And we will never know about accurate marketing budgets ever. Not just because studios spend a lot on marketing but also because now movies are no longer marketed just by the studio. Bond brings in over 100M worth of marketing partners, Angry Birds this year spent $400M on marketing - but less than 100M of that was actually spent by the studio as >300M was by the marketing partners including McDonalds and the like. Man of Steel had $160M in marketing tie-ins. Minions holds the record with almost 600M worth of marketing being done by partners. At such high figures, it is impossible for us to say how much the producers and the studio themselves invested in the marketing and how much they need to recover.

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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

I thought it made 400M on marketing?

 

The total marketing spend was 400M, but of that more than 300M came from promotional partners

 

Quote

The marketing push, including promotional partnerships and the studio's own spending, has reached an estimated $400 million, making it the biggest-ever campaign for an animated Sony movie, according to executives at the company. 

Partnerships with the likes of McDonald's and Ziploc have generated more than $300 million in promotions and ads for the computer-animated film -- a big number even for a major studio release, analysts said. Promotional tie-ins for a high-profile movie would normally total around $200 million.

 

 

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, That One Guy said:

The way I see it:

 

-Below a 2x its budget = low chance of profitability, almost no chance of sequel unless it explodes on HV.

-2x its budget to 2.5x its budget = better chance of being profitable in the long run, a sequel may be considered depending on a number of factors.

-2.5x its budget to 3x its budget = very good chance of profitability overall, a sequel is a likely endeavor.

-3x its budget and above = pretty much confirmed to be profitable, a sequel is almost guaranteed.

 

26 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Earlier we were talking about 2 times gross to budget and if that was still the formula that we should be using.

 

I sent a message on Facebook to the producer of Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Purge and so on (Brad Fuller). I have been lucky enough 2 have him respond to me whenever I have questions for him.

 

He said that the formula for every movie to break even is very complicated. He said you cannot use any particular multiplier whether it be 2 or 3 or even 4. Everything is different he says because of marketing.

 

For example he said the break even on Friday the 13th was around two times but for the purge it was more like around 4 to 5 times because the marketing Budget on The Purge films are about three to four times with the budget is. He said the marketing budget for Purge 3 was about 3x the budget.

 

So the bottom line is I'm not really sure what we were supposed to use to get to a break-even point. He says smaller budget horror films often have a marketing budget that is around 2 - 4 times as much as the budget for the film so take it from there. LOL

 

Great! I love it when business people respond to questions of people really into BO or... !

 

And that is, why I like the list of The One Guy (even if I wouldn't formulate 'confirmed'):

nothing to count on / to be sure, so if a film is important to me I'll look more into it (way too differeing, see earlier post about even the average for advertising per studio/distributor is already differing), but for a film for the GA, not too specialised, normal merchandising / HV /... to expect, I use the times 3 to have reasons for hope for it being good enough for a sequel. But always with the awareness, that other multiplier can be true for this or that project, this or that genre,... each project is unique.

I think the changed dom/OS split to the ~ opposite (in the past 2/3 dom and 1/3 OS was not seldom), the IMHO insane advertising costs of this decade, partly insane percentages an actor... gets = better be on the cautious side and ramp up the multiplier for the 'first impression'.

 

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wildphantom Box Office Gold

wildphantom

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Holdovers should be strong next weekend, as well as the weekend before Rogue One and I think that Office Christmas Party should open well that weekend too I'm expectation a debut of between $16-$20 million for it.

 

Is there any buzz as to what Office Xmas Party is actually like yet? 

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Jake Gittes Global Phenomenon

Jake Gittes

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

Billy Lynn, Edge of 17 and Bleed For This all figure to lose a drastic amount of theaters. Incarnate isn't going to take up much space. 

Who benefits (insert Donald Sutherland exposition guy in "JFK" here) with the available theaters?

 

If Paramount still wants to give Arrival a few hundred more theaters now is the time. Nocturnal Animals would be smart to go into 600+ theaters, Loving too. In previous years stuff like Nightcrawler, The Butler, Moneyball, The Ides of March went back into 1,000+ theaters so we may see something similar with the September/October holdovers. Maybe Sony gives all the Billy Lynn theaters to Magnificent Seven and turns it into Sausage Party Failed $100m Fudge 2.0

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That One Girl Global Phenomenon

That One Girl

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

If Paramount still wants to give Arrival a few hundred more theaters now is the time. Nocturnal Animals would be smart to go into 600+ theaters, Loving too. In previous years stuff like Nightcrawler, The Butler, Moneyball, The Ides of March went back into 1,000+ theaters so we may see something similar with the September/October holdovers. Maybe Sony gives all the Billy Lynn theaters to Magnificent Seven and turns it into Sausage Party Failed $100m Fudge 2.0

 

There was a missed opportunity for Sony to re-release Sausage Party on Thanksgiving.

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