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Monday Numbers: Moana/FB 2.3-2.2m (Asgard)

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37 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I still think my point stands as it is. Let it Go added alone approximately $200m to Frozen

 

11 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

Yes, and in a worldwide view much much more.

but the real reason that sparked the craze has been the almost total lack of related item for sale in front of the huge demand in spring and summer 2014 (maybe created by some marketing genius)

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33 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

I agree with your general point but come on, that song just fit perfectly into the movie and its momentum. It was a catch song independently from the movie yes, but how it played out in the movie is what made it truly special and you only got that by watching the film.

 

Plus the song is what really made the movie a cultural event. Double its gross? Nah, but the difference between 300 and 400m? I can buy that.

 

That I'd agree with. I'm not saying Let it go wasn't apart of its success, just not the sole reason. (I'd argue that Let it go is pretty much what makes up half if not more of the Home Video sales, though.)

 

<.< I also like your Welcome as much as I liked Let it Go.

Edited by RandomJC
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44 minutes ago, KGator said:

As a father of a 4 year old, Moana just doesn't seem to have that much buzz to me.  I've seen items in stores and even some marketing at Disney World a week or two ago on a recent trip but it seems more like a "Tangled", "Chicken Little" or "Princess and the Frog" as one of those movies you look back and wonder . . . "When did that come out again?".   Frozen didn't set the world on fire upon release.  The song "Let it Go" was not only insanely popular as a cultural phenomenon but added a ton of visibility to the movie.  Disney could not buy that kind of marketing.  I believe it is what caused the long legs as people who ignored it when it opened finally became curious and did eventually go see the movie.  As well as a lot of repeat viewings from children who saw the movie and became obsessed with it and the music.  The longer a movie hangs around in theaters the more that WOM can take effect and the more repeat viewings you can have from the fanatical devotees.

 

Yeah, Frozen basically managed to stay afloat in a lot of theatres throughout the holidays, making it the top family choice for the holiday season. Moana will face some mighty juggernauts that might take its screencounts away. Hopefully it hangs on.

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11 minutes ago, Dingdong123 said:

 

Yeah, Frozen basically managed to stay afloat in a lot of theatres throughout the holidays, making it the top family choice for the holiday season. Moana will face some mighty juggernauts that might take its screencounts away. Hopefully it hangs on.

 

Frozen was also lucky that Hobbit: DoS didn't set the boxoffice on fire and it didn't have a crossover factor with young girls who were the driving force behind Frozen as the top family choice. Rogue One will be tougher to overcome as it's guaranteed going to be much bigger than Hobbit, plus Jyn Erso and related merchandise are aimed at girls aka Moana's primary target. 

Edited by Valonqar
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9 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

It really depends on the movie itself's staying power. Inside Out and Toy Story 3 were able to withstand competition, but The Good Dinosaur got drilled by Star Wars last year and Dory took a bit of a beating when Pets came out 

 

Dory took a beating??

 

K

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19 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

It really depends on the movie itself's staying power. Inside Out and Toy Story 3 were able to withstand competition, but The Good Dinosaur got drilled by Star Wars last year and Dory took a bit of a beating when Pets came out 

Dory took a hit because it's already made $403M before Pets opened

Edited by bladels
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8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Moana is going to end up this generations Aladdin. Well regarded, high grossing, but always in the shadow of its larger sibling. Right or wrong. 

good comparison, Aladdin is somewhat like a middle child sandwiched between the box office behemoth the Lion King and the culturally more relevant BatB.

Disney not promoting it as hard as its counterparts after its theatrical run could be another factor too, cause it has some... issues, you know. ("where they cut off your ears if they don't like your face)

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I see Moana doing $240-260 million DOM. In order to do $300 million+ DOM, it'd need to have a sub-50% drop this next weekend (42-45%) and have a 5-15% drop the following weekend, along with a 35-40% drop against Rogue One. Christmas/New Year's and MLK to a lesser extent would likely get it to $300-310 million DOM at that point. 

 

Otherwise, it'll likely finish around $10-15 million above Fantastic Beasts/Doctor Strange. Not bad considering how huge the first eight months of 2016 were (8 films above $300 million DOM) 

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35 minutes ago, narniadis said:

One could argue that Pets is what kept Dory from 500m


Well, I'm not one to blame other movies for preventing a single one from performing as well as it could have. Everyone knew Pets was going to be there long before Dory's release. And it did still finish on the level of Finding Nemo's adjusted first run and had legs fitting for the reception of the movie.

Edited by tribefan695
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Never say anything that is remotely perceived as disparaging against a Pixar film. The pixar loonies will excoriate you over and over and over again.

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