ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[babz06]

1 minute ago, Captain H said:

There's really no relevant comparison for the summer vs holiday debate, imo. The closest thing that we have is Toy Story 3 moving to summer from the previous ones Thanksgiving dates.

Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol had a December opening although it had a weird release schedule. Limited release (425 theaters) on Dec. 16 and went wide Dec. 21(wed) 

29.5m 3-day weekend; 44.8m 5-day  eventually becoming the second highest grossing film of the franchise. 

 

Every other Mission Impossible opened in the summer with at least 40m OW. So this seems to support the fact that usually December releases have lower opening weekends but with higher multipliers. 

 

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

So Ep.7 would have opened to $312M in the summer, with a 3x multi that gets it to $936M

 

Got it

 

Actually, that would have been awesome

The multi wouldn't have been 3. less...

[robertman2]

52 minutes ago, DAR said:

They look like dogs

[druv10]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Top 10 multis for 100m openers (Friday):

1. The Force Awakens - 3.78x

2. Toy Story 3 - 3.77x

3. Finding Dory - 3.6x

4. The Secret Life of Pets - 3.55x

5. The Jungle Book - 3.53x

6. The Dark Knight - 3.37x

7. Dead Man's Chest - 3.13x

8. Jurassic World - 3.13x

9. The Avengers - 3x

10. Minions - 2.92x

 

Top 10 multis for 150m openers:

1. The Force Awakens - 3.78x

2. The Dark Knight - 3.37x

3. Jurassic World - 3.13x

4. The Avengers - 3x

5. The Dark Knight Rises - 2.8x

6. Catching Fire - 2.69x

7. The Hunger Games - 2.68x

8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - 2.4x

9. Iron Man 3 - 2.35x

10. Civil War - 2.28x

 

Now you'll notice even among 100m+ openers, there aren't 10 that have ever hit 3x multis. That drops down to just 4 among 150m+ ones, and only one to hit 3.4x+. You'll also notice the top 5 in the over 100m list are all heavily geared towards kids, and you could make an argument for that being true of the entire top ten save for The Dark Knight. I firmly stand by my belief R1 is not geared towards kids at all, so that's an even further hindrance in its path to joining the 9 100m+ openers to hit a 3x multi. 

You really think it's gonna have sub 3 multiplier? It has no comp for few weeks and WOM seems very good, so no reason for sub 3 multi.  

[hw64]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

 

So Ep.7 would have opened to $312M in the summer, with a 3x multi that gets it to $936M

 

Got it

 

Actually, that would have been awesome

 

You're not listening. I said TFA was immune from the December opening weekend lowering effect. It would have opened to around the same (probably slightly but insignificantly more), would have had a slightly lower multiplier due to lack of holidays and maybe due to competition (I doubt competition would have really had an effect on TFA in any case, given how huge it was and its WOM), and it would have grossed a bit less than in December.

[baumer]

8 minutes ago, Mattrek said:

 

How does one eat a meltdown?@Christmas Baumer

 

Voice to text.  I've stopped trying to correct my VTT today.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, druv10 said:

You really think it's gonna have sub 3 multiplier? It has no comp for few weeks and WOM seems very good, so no reason for sub 3 multi.  

The statistics highly suggest it. Only one adult skewing 100m+ opening blockbuster has ever hit the 3x threshold. 

[WrathOfHan]

 

 

WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS SHIT YOUTUBE? WHY IS THIS ON YOUR HOMEPAGE? This thing has given me more fuel for my Illuminati hatred: using Buzzfeed "writers" to host this shit.

[The Panda]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Top 10 multis for 100m openers (Friday):

1. The Force Awakens - 3.78x

2. Toy Story 3 - 3.77x

3. Finding Dory - 3.6x

4. The Secret Life of Pets - 3.55x

5. The Jungle Book - 3.53x

6. Spider-man - 3.5x

7. The Dark Knight - 3.37x

8. Dead Man's Chest - 3.13x

9. Jurassic World - 3.13x

10. The Avengers - 3x

 

 

Top 10 multis for 150m openers:

1. The Force Awakens - 3.78x

2. The Dark Knight - 3.37x

3. Jurassic World - 3.13x

4. The Avengers - 3x

5. The Dark Knight Rises - 2.8x

6. Catching Fire - 2.69x

7. The Hunger Games - 2.68x

8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - 2.4x

9. Iron Man 3 - 2.35x

10. Civil War - 2.28x

 

Now #11 on the 100m list drops down below a 3x multi (Minions 2.92x). That drops down to just 4 among 150m+ ones, and only one to hit 3.4x+. You'll also notice the top 5 in the over 100m list are all heavily geared towards kids, and you could make an argument for that being true of the entire top ten save for The Dark Knight. I firmly stand by my belief R1 is not geared towards kids at all, so that's an even further hindrance in its path to joining the ten 100m+ openers to hit a 3x multi. 

 

And all of those, with the exception of Force Awakens, weren't released in December.

[EmpireCity]

I'm not going to get too excited yet, but a very reliable and knowledgeable @lobogotti dropped a number I am too hesitant to say at this point over on the HSX boards.  I'm hoping for it and want it to have a chance.  

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, ThePanda A Star Wars Story said:

 

And all of those, with the exception of Force Awakens, weren't released in December.

That's right, because if we had seen huge tentpoles released in December in modern years, the multis would look quite different than we're used to for December openings. Unless you're trying to tell me something like TDK could have opened to that in December and maintained its multi? 

[JonathanLB]

Being obsessed with the numbers is a negative thing in many ways, unfortunately. You either are, or you're not, and once you become interested in the box office I find it almost impossible to ignore and to pretend you don't care. I always care. It's like rooting for your sports teams. I can't say I've almost ever rooted "against" a movie at the box office, in any meaningful sense, except when it comes to any movie beating the top Star Wars movie. For instance, Titanic, I rooted against that thing like crazy. In general, though, I don't care what bad movies make, I just want the good ones I like to do well not only to justify sequels but also because you feel like it's fun to watch something you love also be enjoyed by other people.

 

When I think of a movie like Rogue One, I didn't think I would care THAT much because TFA already has the crown, it already did what I hoped a Star Wars movie would do -- retake that domestic title ANH lost nearly 20 years ago. Once it did that, I knew no other Star Wars movie will come close any time soon, anyway. But I still care about Rogue One's box office because I want Disney to feel encouraged exploring spinoff story ideas and doing things they may not have done otherwise. Make a dark Star Wars movie and make money, too. That's a reason to root for the movie. 

 

I just wish I didn't think about the box office before I went to sleep at night, or wake up early and check your guys' stupid thread at 8:15 a.m. this morning until 8:45 waiting for the preview numbers. Grr, but I woke up, I had to go to the bathroom, figured I may as well check, and sure enough the numbers came out within a few minutes of me getting up. Then it's hard to fall back asleep (I'm not a morning person, 4 a.m. to noon is my sleep time lol) because I'm thinking, crap, well $29M isn't BAD, but it's not really great either, what does that mean for Friday? The OW? I wish I could just not give a shit about any of it and be blissfully unaware, but it's not my nature. I think once you get the box office bug, you always pay attention. I always am excited to see preview numbers for big movies, OW figures, watch what movies come out of nowhere, watch which ones underperform. It's interesting. The business side of Hollywood is certainly one I care about too.

[Poseidon]

So the range looks like $150m-$162m for now. 

[WrathOfHan]

@Christmas Baumer liked Collateral Beauty more than Rogue One  

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol had a December opening although it had a weird release schedule. Limited release (425 theaters) on Dec. 16 and went wide Dec. 21(wed) 

29.5m 3-day weekend; 44.8m 5-day  eventually becoming the second highest grossing film of the franchise. 

 

Every other Mission Impossible opened in the summer with at least 40m OW. So this seems to support the fact that usually December releases have lower opening weekends but with higher multipliers. 

 

 

Ghost Protocol did $15m on its limited release, enough for third place, it was risky putting it in December but it did pay off beating Sherlock Holmes domestically and internationally. 

 

I wonder if Disney or WB would put a superhero film in December? The last time we've had a superhero film that broke out big in December was Superman just under 40 years ago. 

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

You're not listening. I said TFA was immune from the December opening weekend lowering effect. It would have opened to around the same (probably slightly but insignificantly more), would have had a slightly lower multiplier due to lack of holidays and maybe due to competition (I doubt competition would have really had an effect on TFA in any case, given how huge it was and its WOM), and it would have grossed a bit less than in December.

 

I'm listening very well. The problem with your reasoning and your "effect" is that the only movies that it seems to matter and apply to, are immune. Therefore, what use is there for your "effect" if it doesn't apply to any relevant movie before 2020?

 

Anyway, the whole idea behind the discussion is that you're basically saying holidays don't guarantee legs for normal big openers, and I'm saying (as well as many others) that it does. 

 

We'll see about that very soon! 

[baumer]

@Admiral Ackbar

 

[Porthos]

I think there's little chance of this happening, as I like to be conservative (hah! One of the few times that can be said about me! ) about things like this and if I had to guess, I'd say it's going to come on the low end of the Asgardian's range.

 

But...

 

Quote

6 1 

$75,502,161
- / -
4,226 / $17,866
$75,502,161 / 1

 

That's CA:CW's first Friday.  Just sayin'.

[miketheavenger]

21 minutes ago, Admiral Ackbar said:

G'day guys, as you could probably see i'm new here. This weekend seems too busy to not finally join

 

Anyway, I've been visiting this forum for quite some time and finally thought I'd join as I don't have much of a life. Yeah nah jokes i'm just obsessed with numbers and movies so i'd thought it'd be fun.

 

Although this post will probably get lost in all the carnage of this thread, I do quite like what's in the title of this thread

 

[baumer]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

@Christmas Baumer liked Collateral Beauty more than Rogue One  

 

I liked rogue One...didn't love it.  But yes, I gave CB a higher score.