Black Adam | October 21, 2022 | New Line | Don't worry, it's a hit. Dwayne Johnson says so!

[Jeight]

500 ww for BA is not good any way some of you try to slice it. The marketing budget for this Cant be LESS than 150

Edited October 21, 2022 by Jeight

[Jeight]

Shang-chi is absolutely a win. The budget was 150 and it was released during a time where pandemic was much more in play. If shang chi was released this year it would have grossed 650-750 EASILY

[ZeeSoh]

Moderation: Not the Shang Chi thread. Comparison is fine, but not to the extent of exclusion of the titular movie itself. 

[TwoMisfits]

10 hours ago, cax16 said:

This year rankings for cbm so far(my enjoyment level only)

 

Batman

 

 

 

BA/MOM

 

Superpets
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Morbius

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thor. 

 

I haven't seen MoM (and Black Adam is Tuesday for me, but I suspect it under Batman, but way above the bottom 2), but you've got the rankings right, although I think Morbius and Thor deserve to share the bottom, b/c each was horrid for different reasons...

Edited October 21, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, Jeight said:

Shang-chi is absolutely a win. The budget was 150 and it was released during a time where pandemic was much more in play. If shang chi was released this year it would have grossed 650-750 EASILY

150M?🤣

[Ohana]

2 hours ago, Jeight said:

500 ww for BA is not good any way some of you try to slice it. The marketing budget for this Cant be LESS than 150

 

2 hours ago, Jeight said:

Shang-chi is absolutely a win. The budget was 150 and it was released during a time where pandemic was much more in play. If shang chi was released this year it would have grossed 650-750 EASILY

So Shang-Chi with a budget of 150-200M and a WW gross of 432.2M is a win, but Black Adam with a 195M budget 
and a 500M WW gross is a fail.
Got it.

[AJG]

1 minute ago, Ohana said:

 

So Shang-Chi with a budget of 150-200M and a WW gross of 432.2M is a win, but Black Adam with a 195M budget 
and a 500M WW gross is a fail.
Got it.

 

The problem is Shang-Chi came out at the tail-end of COVID. Like... I'm pretty sure it the second highest grossing movie of 2021 domestically.

 

We are currently in recovery. Box Office still isn't what it used to be but its far better than last year when we had no idea if cinemas would be shut before Spider-Man came out.

I don't think $500m for BA right now is bad. It may have been bad in 2018 but things have changed. Anything less than that may be a problem though.

 

[YM!]

I feel like 500m barring China is acceptable for Black Adam. Not a underperformer but not a smash hit. About 2.5x the budget is the rule for profitable and will likely rebound a bit on streaming and home video. The pandemic effect has also made us more lenient on what is a hit and what’s not. Like are Shang Chi and Eternals flops because both barely did over 400m on budgets around 200m (granted those were earlier in the midst of Omicron) or like how Death of the Nile underperformed and is still getting a sequel next year and Northman turned a profit despite bombing at the box office?

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, Jeight said:

500 ww for BA is not good any way some of you try to slice it. The marketing budget for this Cant be LESS than 150

A film doesn’t have to recoup its full production budget and marketing in cinemas alone to be a success. Otherwise, only low budget horror films would ever be hits. 

4 hours ago, Jeight said:

Shang-chi is absolutely a win. The budget was 150 and it was released during a time where pandemic was much more in play. If shang chi was released this year it would have grossed 650-750 EASILY

Actually $150-200m. “If it released this year” is just a shoulda woulda coulda. It didn’t and people hailed doubling its budget as a huge success. 
 

We can’t move the goalposts because it suits us. 

[dax33]

16 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

A film doesn’t have to recoup its full production budget and marketing in cinemas alone to be a success. Otherwise, only low budget horror films would ever be hits. 

It needs $500M to recover the production budget alone.

16 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Actually $150-200m. “If it released this year” is just a shoulda woulda coulda. It didn’t and people hailed doubling its budget as a huge success. 
 

We can’t move the goalposts because it suits us. 

Context isn't moving the goal post lol

 

By your logic, TSS is the worst performing CBM of all time, no other has lost more money, there's no COVID excuses, "should would could in 2022". Also, Thor 4 didn't underperform because NTTD is seen as a big overperforming success.

Edited October 21, 2022 by dax33

[Firepower]

It's not doing 500m unless it overperforms domestically or in China.

[ChipDerby]

Love people talking budgets when it's literally never been reported (I think Forbes is the only reputable one who mentioned offhand "around $195 mil") nor does anyone ever actually know when a film makes a profit.

 

 

[excel1]

1) This film does half of whatever it does if someone other than The Rock is the star.

2) Real money comes in future tie over films. Superman vs. Adam could be a $800m hit which should be considered very good. 

[Ledmonkey96]

14 minutes ago, excel1 said:

1) This film does half of whatever it does if someone other than The Rock is the star.

2) Real money comes in future tie over films. Superman vs. Adam could be a $800m hit which should be considered very good. 

If i had a nickle for every DC movie that 'could be an 800mil hit if it's recieved well' I probably would have made more of a profit off the DCEU than WB

Edited October 21, 2022 by Ledmonkey96

[OncomingStorm93]

38 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

Love people talking budgets when it's literally never been reported (I think Forbes is the only reputable one who mentioned offhand "around $195 mil") nor does anyone ever actually know when a film makes a profit.

 

 

I’ve seen the $195m figure in several Variety articles over the past few days, without them attributing the figure to another outlet’s reporting.

[OncomingStorm93]

38 minutes ago, excel1 said:

1) This film does half of whatever it does if someone other than The Rock is the star.

2) Real money comes in future tie over films. Superman vs. Adam could be a $800m hit which should be considered very good. 

1: This film’s success (or lack thereof) would also be attributable to a horrendous script and generic directing. You could replace The Rock as well as his handpicked writer (coming from Rampage) and director (coming from Jungle Cruise) and get a better product altogether that could have more BO potential.

 

2: Superman being a part of the whole discourse about this film is a shame, and emblematic of my issues with The Rock and his approach to marketing himself.

[Torontofan]

6 hours ago, AJG said:

 

The problem is Shang-Chi came out at the tail-end of COVID. Like... I'm pretty sure it the second highest grossing movie of 2021 domestically.

 

We are currently in recovery. Box Office still isn't what it used to be but its far better than last year when we had no idea if cinemas would be shut before Spider-Man came out.

I don't think $500m for BA right now is bad. It may have been bad in 2018 but things have changed. Anything less than that may be a problem though.

 

 

The fact Spiderman made 800 million during a huge wave  means  people will watch movies in theaters.

 

There has been a huge lack of films that has a 'must see' in cinema quality to them. 

 

 

[AJG]

3 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

 

The fact Spiderman made 800 million during a huge wave  means  people will watch movies in theaters.

 

There has been a huge lack of films that has a 'must see' in cinema quality to them. 

 

 

 

Frankly I can see BA, BPWF, and Avatar cruising along at the BO for months similar to Top Gun. There's just not much going on apart from those movies.

[sabrecmc]

This feels like a movie that will play generally well to the audience that sees it, but not something that really has enormous appeal outside of CBM fans? Niche character with middling reviews for the movie...not exactly a must-see for many. I was on the fence, but with the reviews, plan to just wait for streaming. No reason to spend money, which is sad b/c I was always way more into DC than Marvel until recent years.

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, Torontofan said:

 

The fact Spiderman made 800 million during a huge wave  means  people will watch movies in theaters.

 

There has been a huge lack of films that has a 'must see' in cinema quality to them.

More like "must see" badge than cinema quality.

 

2 hours ago, excel1 said:

1) This film does half of whatever it does if someone other than The Rock is the star.

It's gonna do Shazam numbers most likely, there's no excuse. It's a generic superhero movie with one of the biggest stars in the world, it should do better than that.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Firepower