Black Adam | October 21, 2022 | New Line | Don't worry, it's a hit. Dwayne Johnson says so!

[snarkmachine]

This movie flopping is fascinating to me. The Rock can sell all kinds of dreck but he can’t sell DC IP? Is his star power finally waning?

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, snarkmachine said:

This movie flopping is fascinating to me. The Rock can sell all kinds of dreck but he can’t sell DC IP? Is his star power finally waning?

 

Per the board, it's probably getting to 2x production budget WW (or $390M+ WW) - it's at $367M+ with one last big market to open.

 

To get to 2x budget, it would be a "disappointment" but not a flop.

 

[ThomasNicole]

 

 

 

[WittyUsername]

1 hour ago, snarkmachine said:

This movie flopping is fascinating to me. The Rock can sell all kinds of dreck but he can’t sell DC IP? Is his star power finally waning?

It’s doing about inline with a typical non-F&F/non-Jumanji film for The Rock. The problem is the high budget and lack of a release in China. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by WittyUsername

[Saul Goodman]

11 hours ago, snarkmachine said:

This movie flopping is fascinating to me. The Rock can sell all kinds of dreck but he can’t sell DC IP? Is his star power finally waning?

It has been waning since years now. People seem to forget that Jumanji was 5 years ago and apart from maybe Hobbs and Shaw, he didn't have many solid successes.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Saul Goodman

[Juby]

12 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Per the board, it's probably getting to 2x production budget WW (or $390M+ WW) - it's at $367M+ with one last big market to open.

 

To get to 2x budget, it would be a "disappointment" but not a flop.

 

 

Terminator Genisys was a flop with $155m production budget and $440.6m worldwide gross (Jason Clark says it was $50-60m short to greenlight the next installment). Black Adam with $195-200m budget and bigger marketing will finish its run under $400 million ww, it's deffinetly a flop.

[SnokesLegs]

12 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

 

 

That’s certainly one way to spin it. You have to admire his relentless optimism I guess.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

29 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

That’s certainly one way to spin it. You have to admire his relentless optimism I guess.

Go uh...check the Twitter account that sent that one more time.

[SnokesLegs]

1 hour ago, Eric Clade said:

Go uh...check the Twitter account that sent that one more time.

Haha! They got me, and I can’t even blame Elon’s pointless blue check this time!

[WittyUsername]

3 hours ago, Juby said:

 

Terminator Genisys was a flop with $155m production budget and $440.6m worldwide gross (Jason Clark says it was $50-60m short to greenlight the next installment). Black Adam with $195-200m budget and bigger marketing will finish its run under $400 million ww, it's deffinetly a flop.

You’re missing some important context. Genisys made less than $100 million domestically, and also made over $100 million in China. For clarification, studios receive a greater share of a movie’s domestic gross than they do the international gross, and they receive a smaller share of a movie’s gross in China in particular.
 

This movie has made over $150 million domestically so far, and hasn’t been released in China, so it’s not an apples to apples comparison. 

[Juby]

Okay. So lets use typical %% gross for this film.

 

Studio will get around 55% of domestic tickets sale (will finish with max. $170m) = $93.5m

+maybe 40% from overseas markets (will winish with max. $230m) = $92m

= $185.5m total maximum

 

Production budget was $195-200m + probably over $100m for P&A = around $300m. I don't know how great licenses/ tv rights/ 4K/Blu-ray/DVD sale BA needs to break even, but it seems barely possible to me.

 

[Factcheck]

33 minutes ago, Juby said:

Okay. So lets use typical %% gross for this film.

 

Studio will get around 55% of domestic tickets sale (will finish with max. $170m) = $93.5m

+maybe 40% from overseas markets (will winish with max. $230m) = $92m

= $185.5m total maximum

 

Production budget was $195-200m + probably over $100m for P&A = around $300m. I don't know how great licenses/ tv rights/ 4K/Blu-ray/DVD sale BA needs to break even, but it seems barely possible to me.

 

You forgot about video costs, residuals, interest and participations; add another $150 million or more to the final cost.

Edited November 24, 2022 by Factcheck

[AJG]

Oh my god he actually responded to this…

 

 

[efialtes76]

On 11/23/2022 at 1:47 PM, Juby said:

 

Terminator Genisys was a flop with $155m production budget and $440.6m worldwide gross (Jason Clark says it was $50-60m short to greenlight the next installment). Black Adam with $195-200m budget and bigger marketing will finish its run under $400 million ww, it's deffinetly a flop.

Terminator Genisys only did $90M domestic and $113M were from China.

[filmnerdjamie]

On 11/25/2022 at 4:06 AM, AJG said:

Oh my god he actually responded to this…

 

 

 

Last time we got that kind of in-denial public meltdown was when Baywatch bombed.

[WittyUsername]

I don’t see anything wrong with The Rock’s comments. He’s made it clear that he respects the folks at Marvel. He just thinks it’s silly to compare a film like this to a Black Panther sequel, which i would have to agree with. This movie is performing about inline with what you’d expect. The studio just overspent on it. 

[Spidey Freak]

39 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I don’t see anything wrong with The Rock’s comments. He’s made it clear that he respects the folks at Marvel. He just thinks it’s silly to compare a film like this to a Black Panther sequel, which i would have to agree with. This movie is performing about inline with what you’d expect. The studio just overspent on it. 

 

He's not wrong but man going from marketing the character as "changing the hierarchy of the DC universe" to "We're new babies, we need to grow" is literally this meme

[ChipDerby]

How many times do I have to say that the budget is almost surely because the production has been almost 15 years. I can almost guarantee that no matter how much it made, WB would say it lost money.

[keysersoze123]

WB were stupid for this project to be in pipeline for so long. Still came out with crappy script :-( Hopefully we get stronger scripts in the Gunn/Safran era. 

[YM!]

Imagine if The Rock wasn't scared of being beat up by children and was the villain in Shazam and then got a movie. Black Adam would have done a lot better.