The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Joyous Legion]

In particular, Avengers 1 has the adjusted True Friday record with about 70M iirc. If IW actually does have a 260+ (which is clearly possible, though we can debate exactly how likely) then that would likely come with a 70-75 true Friday.

[JB33]

MT.com:

 

Avengers: Infinity War 86.5%

I Feel Pretty 2.5%

A Quiet Place 1.8%

Rampage 1.3%

Super Troopers 2 1%

[DAJK]

Kinda pissed that I'm stuck in Vncouver tonight, instead of my small town theatre where I could have gone to see IW tonight.

 

Cause everything is sold out here. EVERYTHING

 

 

alright alright I shouldn't say everything but I don't wanna go to an 11;50 PM show and sit in the front row

Edited April 26, 2018 by DAJK

[Stewart]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Kinda pissed that I'm stuck in Vncouver tonight, instead of my small town theatre where I could have gone to see IW tonight.

 

Cause everything is sold out here. EVERYTHING

 

 

alright alright I shouldn't say everything but I don't wanna go to an 11;50 PM show and sit in the front row

commiserations to you, but fuck yes for AIW's box office   

[Deep Wang]

12 minutes ago, Sliver Legion said:

Wouldn’t it be more meaningful to look at adjusted figures or admissions here? There’s no reason why the nominal value of a true Friday would have any kind of cap. 

What would adjusting do to help?  We have literally had 3 movies in 6 years break the opening weekend record, yet all three had almost identical true Friday's.  

10 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

In 2006, no film had hit $40M on OD minus midnights, with only one getting very close. And then Pirates of the Caribbean 2 destroyed that with $46.8M pure Friday.

 

Everything is a hard cap until it isn't.

Obviously, something is going to come along and break through it eventually, but to me, when I see three different movies all hit about the same mark, that's telling me that there's a peak for now.  We track and predict BO based on trends and stats, this is a stat that until it is broken by a fair margin, will be a very useful tool to predict the max a movie will make on opening day and thus weekend.

[MattW]

Friday in July > Friday in April or early May.  

 

The Saturdays line up more or less, and I think that represents a rough cap, but put one of these massive movies in July and we'll get a bigger number for Friday.

 

Pirates 2 made $55.8m including $9m from midnights in July 2006. 

That adjusts to $78.25m for 2018. 

True Friday of $46.8m and adjust that with the same ratio and you get $65.6m on a $190m adjusted weekend, and true Friday was actually larger than Saturday for that weekend.  Dark Knight also had a bigger Friday than Saturday.  Lion King should be quite the interesting case

[The Panda]

26 minutes ago, JB33 said:

That's kind of how I was thinking. Same goes for the big 3 of STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS, JURASSIC WORLD and THE AVENGERS finishing between $68M-$69M on Saturday.

 

In fact, the OW's for JW and TA are pretty much identical and, previews aside, the only difference between those weekends and that of TFA's is the extra $3M or so on Sunday for TFA. 

 

Taking out previews, which vary from movie to movie, franchise to franchise, those opening weekends all look very, very similar, suggesting peak business.

 

The thing that will help IW is obviously inflation, which is why I think a new Saturday record is very possible. Then again, I thought that for TLJ.

I agree with this peak business comment.  Obviously ticket inflation increases that potential (which is why I think around 230-240m OW is a good range).  I also think IW will have previews that look closer to Star Wars than to Avengers.

[Biggestgeekever]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

What would adjusting do to help?  We have literally had 3 movies in 6 years break the opening weekend record, yet all three had almost identical true Friday's.  

Obviously, something is going to come along and break through it eventually, but to me, when I see three different movies all hit about the same mark, that's telling me that there's a peak for now.  We track and predict BO based on trends and stats, this is a stat that until it is broken by a fair margin, will be a very useful tool to predict the max a movie will make on opening day and thus weekend.

That's fair, but I think you also need to strongly consider that it's just a coincidence of the numbers, too. Think of it this way: say that previews and midnights didn't exist, do you think TFA and Avengers would have had the same opening day?

1 minute ago, MattW said:

Friday in July > Friday in April or early May.  

 

The Saturdays line up more or less, and I think that represents a rough cap, but put one of these massive movies in July and we'll get a bigger number for Friday.

 

Pirates 2 made $55.8m including $9m from midnights in July 2006. 

That adjusts to $78.25m for 2018. 

True Friday of $46.8m and adjust that with the same ratio and you get $65.6m on a $190m adjusted weekend, and true Friday was actually larger than Saturday for that weekend.  Dark Knight also had a bigger Friday than Saturday.  Lion King should be quite the interesting case

Spider-Man 3 made $49.8M on a May Friday just a year later, and that adjusts to $66.4M. There are so many more IMAX and PLF screens today that I just can't believe that is the cap for a Friday weekday gross.

[WrathOfHan]

3 hours to go:

 

7:00: 119/124 (+2)

7:00 3D: 85/113 (+4)

7:15: 66/78 (-2)

7:30 3D: 54/78 (+4)

7:45: 66/78

8:00 3D: 55/78 (+3)

8:15: 47/63 (+9)

8:45 3D: 53/69 (+7)

9:15: 65/78 (+2)

9:45: 60/78 (+3)

10:15 3D: 25/60 (+6)

10:30: 109/124 (+5)

10:30 3D: 53/113 (+7)

Total: 857/1,134 (+50)

 

Current comps in relation to final sales:

 

80% of The Last Jedi (176M)

172% of Black Panther (347.4M)

254% of Thor: Ragnarok (311.7M)

266% of Justice League (249.5M)

732% of Pacific Rim: Uprising (205.7M)

1,008% of Rampage (360.9M)

1,033% of A Quiet Place (518.6M)

1,058% of Blade Runner 2049 (347M)

[TalismanRing]

Probably my last update (I'm fading - cursed flu!)

 

Fandango NYC Area

4-25-18 (Thur) (4pm)

 

Theaters: 59

Showings: 642

Reserved: 388

Sellouts: 180

Complete Sellouts: 105

[The Mad Titan]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

3 hours to go:

 

7:00: 119/124 (+2)

7:00 3D: 85/113 (+4)

7:15: 66/78 (-2)

7:30 3D: 54/78 (+4)

7:45: 66/78

8:00 3D: 55/78 (+3)

8:15: 47/63 (+9)

8:45 3D: 53/69 (+7)

9:15: 65/78 (+2)

9:45: 60/78 (+3)

10:15 3D: 25/60 (+6)

10:30: 109/124 (+5)

10:30 3D: 53/113 (+7)

Total: 857/1,134 (+50)

 

Current comps in relation to final sales:

 

80% of The Last Jedi (176M)

172% of Black Panther (347.4M)

254% of Thor: Ragnarok (311.7M)

266% of Justice League (249.5M)

732% of Pacific Rim: Uprising (205.7M)

1,008% of Rampage (360.9M)

1,033% of A Quiet Place (518.6M)

1,058% of Blade Runner 2049 (347M)

143 more would be nice 

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

3 hours to go:

 

7:00: 119/124 (+2)

7:00 3D: 85/113 (+4)

7:15: 66/78 (-2)

7:30 3D: 54/78 (+4)

7:45: 66/78

8:00 3D: 55/78 (+3)

8:15: 47/63 (+9)

8:45 3D: 53/69 (+7)

9:15: 65/78 (+2)

9:45: 60/78 (+3)

10:15 3D: 25/60 (+6)

10:30: 109/124 (+5)

10:30 3D: 53/113 (+7)

Total: 857/1,134 (+50)

 

Current comps in relation to final sales:

 

80% of The Last Jedi (176M)

172% of Black Panther (347.4M)

254% of Thor: Ragnarok (311.7M)

266% of Justice League (249.5M)

732% of Pacific Rim: Uprising (205.7M)

1,008% of Rampage (360.9M)

1,033% of A Quiet Place (518.6M)

1,058% of Blade Runner 2049 (347M)

 

If we just look at these as Thur numbers and %s then 80% of TLJ would be $36m previews and 172% of BP would be $43.34m.  Thor R would be $39.875

 

It should be more walk up heavy than TLJ - I think $40m previews is looking good

[Eric the Minion]

Last update.

 

Avengers

4092

5088

80.42%

 

448% of T:R ($550.1M)

291% of JL ($273.5M)

101% of TLJ ($223.1M)

83% of BP ($167.4M)

 

So yeah, could go anywhere at this point.

[Porthos]

IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: PREMIERE NIGHT - MID DAY UPDATE [12:30 - 1:15pm PDT]

 

Sellouts: 

17/182 (+6/+8)

 

2D:  15/129 (+6/+7)

3D:  2/53     (+0/+1)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 126 showings>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

18 (+9)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

13 (-1)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

60 (+6)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

3 (-1)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/397      

St: 0/393  

Su: 0/373

  

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (126/182 showings [nc/+8]):

100%:     14 (+4) [+3 non reserved theater]

90-99%:  30 (+7)

80-89%:  38 (+4)

70-79%:  21 (-4)

60-69%:  10 (-3)

50-59%:   4 (-2)

40-49%:   2 (+1)

30-39%:   3 (-1)

20-29%:   2 (-3)

10-19%:   2 (nc)

0-9%:      0 (-3)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	17	182	2873	15159	81.05%

 

Total Sellouts Added last 15 hours:   6 (2 non reserved seating)

Total Shows Added last 15 hours:   8 (all non reserved seating)

Total Seats Added last 15 hours:   n/a

Total Seats Sold last 15 hours:      752

---

1.763 times as many seats sold as Black Panther at this point in time (12286 vs 6969)

1.516 times as many seats sold as final tracking check for Black Panther at 6:15pm PDT (12286 v 8104)

Edited April 27, 2018 by Porthos

[The Mad Titan]

12 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

If we just look at these as Thur numbers and %s then 80% of TLJ would be $36m previews and 172% of BP would be $43.34m.  Thor R would be $39.875

 

It should be more walk up heavy than TLJ - I think $40m previews is looking good

Seems likely that it’ll be somewhere in the 40’s. I’m still hoping for a $50m push though. 

[Lordmandeep]

I think at least 35 million in previews is happening and I think that should give an opening around TLJ. 

 

It is above Ultron and BP for sure but below TLJ around here. 

Edited April 26, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[The Mad Titan]

AIW Numbers From My Theater, Thursday

 

36 showings 

26 over 90% sold 

6 between 70% and 90%

4 just added 20 minutes ago

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

6 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

AIW Numbers From My Theater, Thursday

 

36 showings 

26 over 90% sold 

6 between 70% and 90%

4 just added 20 minutes ago

 

 

These sum to 36, so that is 0 theaters that existed half an hour ago and are below 70%?

Edited April 26, 2018 by Sliver Legion

[FlashMaster659]

2 hours ago, JB33 said:

That's kind of how I was thinking. Same goes for the big 3 of STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS, JURASSIC WORLD and THE AVENGERS finishing between $68M-$69M on Saturday.

 

In fact, the OW's for JW and TA are pretty much identical and, previews aside, the only difference between those weekends and that of TFA's is the extra $3M or so on Sunday for TFA. 

 

Taking out previews, which vary from movie to movie, franchise to franchise, those opening weekends all look very, very similar, suggesting peak business.

 

The thing that will help IW is obviously inflation, which is why I think a new Saturday record is very possible. Then again, I thought that for TLJ.

Higher theater count should help a little too

[The Mad Titan]

4 minutes ago, Sliver Legion said:

These sum to 36, so that is 0 theaters that existed half an hour ago and are below 70%?

That’s 4 added showing in the last 30 minutes. All 4 are below 70% right now of course. 26+6+4=36.