The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-35 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7892	10616	25.69%

 

Total Sellouts Today:            2

Total Seats Sold Today:      40

 

.4556x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 35 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

Edited February 4, 2019 by Porthos
Added sellouts and 15 sold seats after a few days (see next post for explanation)

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-35 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	7907	10616	25.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      25

 

.4531x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 35 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

A note about this.

 

The two 6pm 'Opening Night Fan Events' for Century Arden disappeared from all ticketing sites that I can find, including Cinemark's.  Unlike AMC it's very rare for Cinemark/Century to completely de-list a showing once it sells out, though I think I've seen it happen very occasionally.

 

There were six and nine seats left in those two showings, so it is possible some Marvel-stans came by today, bought them out, and then Century Arden delisted it for whatever reason.  I suspect, however, that it's more likely a computer glitch somewhere along the line.  So I have NOT included those 15 tickets, nor the two mooted sellouts, in today's bloc.

 

If those showings don't re-appear soon enough, say a few days, I'll go ahead and re-adjust this day's total for the tickets sold and the two sellouts, and all of the subsequent stat blocks.

 

Better to be a bit cautious than set some folks up for disappointment if I had to take two sellouts off the board, I reckon.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Porthos

[Neucentro]

3 hours ago, grim22 said:

Alita looking at 25M 5 day

 

 

 

Sounds low to me. It should do over $30m 5 days. 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Neucentro

[lorddemaxus]

53 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

 Sounds low to me. It should do over $30m 5 days. 

 

 

If you ask me, I think that is too high. I think it will do 12 mil for the 4 day weekend and 1 mil on Thursday. Going with 13 mil for the five day. Really low compared to the article but The Wrap also predicted that Aquaman would open to 100 mil. This bodes better for The Lego Movie 2.

[Deep Wang]

5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

If you ask me, I think that is too high. I think it will do 12 mil for the 4 day weekend and 1 mil on Thursday. Going with 13 mil for the five day. 

I'm not sure I get this.  1m on it's opening day, or is that the preview number for Wednesday?

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 I'm not sure I get this.  1m on it's opening day, or is that the preview number for Wednesday?

Opening day (Thursday will be a weekday right?). I know it might sound hyperbolic but I really think the movie will do this bad.

[Deep Wang]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

Opening day (Thursday will be a weekday right?). I know it might sound hyperbolic but I really think the movie will do this bad.

Well, it is opening on Thursday, but it's Valentine's.  So you will have Wednesday night previews and a bit of a boost from Valentine's Day.

 

Now, my model is using a drop from Thursday to Friday, so a $1m Thursday would mean sub $5m 4 day.  That would be catastrophic and I don't think that's going to happen.  

[lorddemaxus]

21 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Well, it is opening on Thursday, but it's Valentine's.  So you will have Wednesday night previews and a bit of a boost from Valentine's Day.

  

Now, my model is using a drop from Thursday to Friday, so a $1m Thursday would mean sub $5m 4 day.  That would be catastrophic and I don't think that's going to happen.  

I completely forgot about that. I guess I was looking at the wrong movies that opened on President's day weekend. I'll go somewhere around 3 mil then. I think my prediction was way too low. I think it will be more like 17 mil for the 5 day (maybe 20 if the Thursday to Friday jump is good).

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

I completely forgot about that. I guess I was looking at the wrong movies that opened on President's day weekend. I'll go somewhere around 3 mil then. I think my prediction was way too low. I think it will be more like 17 mil for the 5 day (maybe 20 if the Thursday to Friday jump is good).

 

You want to look at '13 for the best comparison since that has VD on Thursday.  

 

'08 is just too far away, but they were all small openings, so there is a chance that with a small enough Thursday, it might stay flat instead of decrease.  But if it's that small, it's still in trouble.

[YM!]

@Deep Wang how is Lego looking?

[el sid]

MT now also with Miss Bala:

#1 The Upside 10.1%
#2 Glass 9.3%
#3 They Shall Not Grow Old 7.3%
#4 Green Book 6.5%
#5 Miss Bala 4.8% -  Peppermint had 8.8% at that time, The Girl in the Spider's Web 3.4%

[Deep Wang]

4 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

@Deep Wang how is Lego looking?

 

That's a very good question and I'm glad you asked it!

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-34 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7874	10616	25.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      18

 

.4493x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 34 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

Edited February 4, 2019 by Porthos
Added adjusted seat count information

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-33 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7832	10616	26.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              42

 

.4522x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 33 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 33 Comp:

 

IW:        53 tickets sold [1 sellout/113 showings |   4855/11011 seats left  | 54.30% sold] 

Edited February 4, 2019 by Porthos

[RealLyre]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-33 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	7847	10616	26.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              42

 

.4498x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 33 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 33 Comp:

 

IW:        53 tickets sold [1 sellout/113 showings |   4855/1101 seats left  | 54.30% sold] 

good increase from yesterday! 

 

I wonder how much the pre-sales will go up after today's Endgame superbowl spot which will (hopefully) probably feature Captain Marvel

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

good increase from yesterday! 

 

I wonder how much the pre-sales will go up after today's Endgame superbowl spot which will (hopefully) probably feature Captain Marvel

It's been picking up the last couple of days compared to where it was, as well (mid-to-low 20s versus single digits to low teens).  Glad folks talked me into sticking with the day-to-day updates. 👍

 

And, yes, curious to see how plays out tomorrow.  Part of the problem still is medium hanging fruit, but there are still some fruits left to be plucked  at decent theaters in the region before we get to the 9pm and later showtimes.

Edited February 3, 2019 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

Tomorrow estimate 110 new seats 

[Cooper Legion]

17 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Tomorrow estimate 110 new seats 

Well, she didn’t get the Endgame appearance I was expecting, but she did get her own spot that I wasn’t expecting. Think this might end up a lowball.

[MrGlass2]

Huge, immediate impact:

Updated by @akvalley: 2019-02-03 18:58:33 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------

2019-02-03 19:00:00	715	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-02-03 19:00:00	221	Glass (2019)
2019-02-03 19:00:00	203	Miss Bala (2019)
2019-02-03 19:00:00	182	The Upside
2019-02-03 19:00:00	161	Captain Marvel The IMAX 2D Experience

 

2019-02-03 18:00:00	291	Glass (2019)
2019-02-03 18:00:00	226	Miss Bala (2019)
2019-02-03 18:00:00	201	The Upside
2019-02-03 18:00:00	148	Captain Marvel (2019)

 

2019-02-03 17:00:00	407	Glass (2019)
2019-02-03 17:00:00	346	The Upside
2019-02-03 17:00:00	309	Miss Bala (2019)
...
2019-02-03 17:00:00	52	Captain Marvel (2019)

Edited February 4, 2019 by MrGlass2

[Porthos]

Spike is already headed back down:

 

2019-02-03 20:00:00	155	Glass (2019)
2019-02-03 20:00:00	128	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-02-03 20:00:00	118	Miss Bala (2019)
2019-02-03 20:00:00	102	The Upside
2019-02-03 20:00:00	59	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
2019-02-03 20:00:00	55	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse

 

19:00 final numbers, for those who care:

 

2019-02-03 19:00:00	715	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-02-03 19:00:00	221	Glass (2019)
2019-02-03 19:00:00	203	Miss Bala (2019)
2019-02-03 19:00:00	182	The Upside
2019-02-03 19:00:00	161	Captain Marvel The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-02-03 19:00:00	105	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
2019-02-03 19:00:00	98	Aquaman
2019-02-03 19:00:00	86	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
2019-02-03 19:00:00	75	Captain Marvel 3D