The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DlAMONDZ]

May be out of the loop but what happened to movietickets? Did they stop showing percentages or is my shit bugging out?

[Premium George]

Thanks shivampa but you are wrong about both SK and china. 

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, Aadcfan said:

Presales in China underperform. 

Wow, a stupendously ignorant brand new account ragging on Captain Marvel in all bold. Gee, I wonder whose duplicate this could be 

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, DlAMONDZ said:

May be out of the loop but what happened to movietickets? Did they stop showing percentages or is my shit bugging out?

No longer displayed natively on their site but still available here:  http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt   

 

Currently:  

2019-02-28 15:00:25.660160 UTC
1	25.8%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	13.2%	Captain Marvel
3	9.9%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
4	5.3%	Alita: Battle Angel
5	4.8%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part

 

[nevermore]

4 minutes ago, DlAMONDZ said:

May be out of the loop but what happened to movietickets? Did they stop showing percentages or is my shit bugging out?

They no longer show it on their site, but you can still see it from here.

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt

[Premium George]

Don't quote him.

[rishijoesanu]

8 minutes ago, Aadcfan said:

SO BAD NEWS FOR YOU ALL WHO WERE OVERPREDICTING THIS MOVIE 

 

 

 

TODAY IT'S TIME FOR REALITY CHECK

 

 

 

Presales in NA are very bad. Ask @Deep Wang if you don't believe me. OW less than 120M.

 

 

 

Presales in SK falls down. It is doing very bad in SK. 

 

 

 

Presales in China underperform. 

 

 

 

Next time please predict a movie wisely. 

 

[terrestrial]

 

Just now, rishijoesanu said:

- snip -

hint: better not to feed the troll. Looks like its the xx-try of a certain banned ex-member to get a new account up

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2019/02/us-jordan-peele-box-office-projection-1202566962/

 

Jordan Peele’s second movie, Us, landed on tracking this morning, and projections are pointing toward a $35M, potential $40M opening.

[Premium George]

Would be a great opening.

[Deep Wang]

41 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Well I really should be getting back to sleep soon, but I guess that’ll have to wait for now. Gonna go with 4.3 as my guess.

To be fair, I only know I'm getting an update today, not sure when though.

 

So rest now!

[MCKillswitch123]

12 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/02/us-jordan-peele-box-office-projection-1202566962/

 

Jordan Peele’s second movie, Us, landed on tracking this morning, and projections are pointing toward a $35M, potential $40M opening.

For what I presume is a tiny budget and for a completely original horror film relying mostly on the director's name, that's great.

 

But Get Out was an almost out of nowhere breakout and it made 33M OW. I feel like Us should be looking at 40+ at least. 35 would not be bad by any stretch, but only 2M more than GO's OW would be a bit disappointing for me. Regardless, it should be another huge hit for Peele.

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

To be fair, I only know I'm getting an update today, not sure when though.

 

So rest now!

I had begun to suspect as much. Very well, the hype will build as I slumber.   

 

😴

[Brainbug]

16 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/02/us-jordan-peele-box-office-projection-1202566962/

 

Jordan Peele’s second movie, Us, landed on tracking this morning, and projections are pointing toward a $35M, potential $40M opening.

 

Horror movies normally manage to surpass Tracking. But even 35M would be excellent for an original horror film and would probably ensure 100M DOM, given that Get Out had such strong WOM.

[Eric Prime]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Truth Or Dare

385

760

2,133

I Feel Pretty

871

1,610

4,423

Breaking In

727

1,204

2,899

Book Club

836

1,599

3,283

Hereditary

659

1,178

3,181

Night School

1,045

1,756

3,566

Happytime Murders

382

*488

1,954

5,602

Hell Fest

195

304

661

Bad Times at the El Royale

264

481

1,257

3,350

Nobody's Fool

436

900

1,719

4,437

Overlord

299

604

1,599

4,522

Possession of Hannah Grace

105

285

893

3,053

Second Act

353

611

1,204

What Men Want

1,383

2,505

5,405

9,328

The Prodigy

161

359

847

2,288

Madea Family Funeral	1,587	2,482	4,951
Greta	120	287	824
*4pm-12am



See the full list here:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=209330330

 

Madea Comps:

112% of I Feel Pretty (17.9M)

171% of Breaking In (30.1M)

151% of Book Club (20.5M)

253% of Happytime Murders (24.1M)

139% of Night School (37.8M)

288% of Nobody's Fool (39.6M)

411% of Second Act (26.7M)

92% of What Men Want (16.7M)

 

About the same as yesterday. Gunning for a mid 20s debut here.

 

Greta Comps:

39% of Truth or Dare (7.2M)

26% of Hereditary (3.5M)

125% of Hell Fest (6.4M)

65% of El Royale (4.7M)

51% of Overlord (5.2M)

92% of Hannah Grace (5.9M)

97% of What Men Want (5.7M)

 

While a lot of the data is ~5M, I feel like the Hereditary comp is the best bet.

 

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Captain Marvel	6,647	8,737	10,157
	11 days	10 days	9 days
Us	148	181	188
	25 days	24 days	23 days

 

Captain Marvel Day 17-Day 9

.416x of Black Panther (100.8M)

 

Yesterday was 92.1M, while the day before was 83M. Higher Further Faster Baby!

Edited February 28, 2019 by CoolEric258

[TwoMisfits]

Regal is offering their biggest "see Captain Marvel here and now" deal I've seen for a movie in awhile...just got this email...

 

"Get 5000 Extra Credits
Use your Crown Club card between March 6 - 12 at one of our participating locations and receive 5000 extra credits when you see any movie.
Offer is valid once per day, per membership. Please allow 5 days for the extra credits to reflect on the member's account. "

 

Normally, these deals are for 500 or 1000 extra credits...and note, this is also 1x PER day, so Regals will be booking big and booking often for CM, if they haven't already done so...

 

Probably another indication that the industry is struggling, and Regal especially b/c it doesn't have subscribers to fall back on, so they are going all in on this 1st blockbuster (and trying to get you in with the bonuses multiple times...and then later to spend them)...

 

 

[el sid]

Pulse always 8:35-8:49 EST:

A Madea Family Funeral : 107/15 minutes – yesterday at that time it were 39/15 (What Men Want (18.2M OW) had 44/15 on Wednesday at that time); What Men Want had 87/15 at that time on Thursday so Madea overtook today
Greta: 14/15 – yesterday 6/15; Serenity had 23/15 at that time and The Girl in the Spider's Web 32/15
Captain Marvel: 83/15 – yesterday 73/15; I don't know how to value these numbers but it could be interesting to see its daily jumps

 

And Pulse always 11:04-11:19 EST (so 15 minutes too late, I hope it makes only a tiny or no difference):
 

Madea: 135/15 minutes – What Men Want had 117/15 at that time, The Upside (20.4M OW) 130/15; quite nice especially if this is a series with strong walk ups
Greta: 16/15 – pretty bad, Serenity had 31/15 at that time, Replicas 6/15 and The Girl in the Spider's Web 45/15; the trailer is ok IMO and reviews too, I'm surprised that presales are so low at the moment
Apollo 11: 12/15
CM: 141/15
 

MT:

#1 HtTYD3 24.7%
#2 Captain Marvel 13.2%
#3 A Madea Family Funeral 12.5% – Night School and What Men Want both had around 8% at that time, The Upside ca. 7%
#4 Alita 5.2%
#5 Lego Movie2 4.2%

Edited February 28, 2019 by el sid

[Stewart]

16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Regal is offering their biggest "see Captain Marvel here and now" deal I've seen for a movie in awhile...just got this email...

 

"Get 5000 Extra Credits
Use your Crown Club card between March 6 - 12 at one of our participating locations and receive 5000 extra credits when you see any movie.
Offer is valid once per day, per membership. Please allow 5 days for the extra credits to reflect on the member's account. "

 

Normally, these deals are for 500 or 1000 extra credits...and note, this is also 1x PER day, so Regals will be booking big and booking often for CM, if they haven't already done so...

 

Probably another indication that the industry is struggling, and Regal especially b/c it doesn't have subscribers to fall back on, so they are going all in on this 1st blockbuster (and trying to get you in with the bonuses multiple times...and then later to spend them)...

 

 

What does 5000 credits actually get you though?

[poweranimals]

I'm surprised Madea is doing as well as it is. Aren't people sick of those things by now? I tried watching one once because of a certain actress being in it and I swore I'd never watch another one no matter who's in it.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

What does 5000 credits actually get you though?

It's 1000 credits away from a free popcorn or soda...still 10K plus away from a ticket, I think, but I have to check again...of course, the ticket cost ($10 is 1K points) + the 5000 bonus will get the instant free concession...for the next movie:)...(they are not rewarding til after the show:)...