The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Stewart]

1 hour ago, LeoC said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-detective-pikachu-poised-for-may-breakout-the-hustle-poms-to-court-mothers-day-moviegoers/

 

5/10/2019

Detective Pikachu

$90,000,000

NEW

$250,000,000

NEW

–

Universal

 

 

4/26/2019

Avengers: Endgame

$265,000,000

$635,000,000

-9%

–

Disney / Marvel

 

The long range tracking has A:EG dropped by 9%. Too much competition? 

 

http://cms.pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-04-long-range-forecast-jurassic-world

 

I still stand by my prediction that this will breakout Jurassic World style. Hype is there, intrigue is there, marketing is on point and fanbase is also there. Here was BOP's initial long range: (remarkably similar)

 

TITLE	RELEASE DATE	DISTRIBUTOR	OPENING WEEKEND	CUMULATIVE
Jurassic World	Jun 12, 2015	Universal	$85,000,000	$233,000,000

 

 

EDIT: for comparison, this was their last update before official forecast:

 

http://cms.pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-06-long-range-forecast-mission-impossible-rogue-nation

 

TITLE	RELEASE DATE	DISTRIBUTOR	OPENING WEEKEND	CUMULATIVE
Jurassic World	Jun 12, 2015	Universal	$121,000,000	$303,000,000

 

Edited March 15, 2019 by feasby007

[James]

3 hours ago, feasby007 said:

http://cms.pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-04-long-range-forecast-jurassic-world

 

I still stand by my prediction that this will breakout Jurassic World style. Hype is there, intrigue is there, marketing is on point and fanbase is also there. Here was BOP's initial long range: (remarkably similar)

 

TITLE	RELEASE DATE	DISTRIBUTOR	OPENING WEEKEND	CUMULATIVE
Jurassic World	Jun 12, 2015	Universal	$85,000,000	$233,000,000

 

 

EDIT: for comparison, this was their last update before official forecast:

 

http://cms.pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-06-long-range-forecast-mission-impossible-rogue-nation

 

TITLE	RELEASE DATE	DISTRIBUTOR	OPENING WEEKEND	CUMULATIVE
Jurassic World	Jun 12, 2015	Universal	$121,000,000	$303,000,000

 

Isn't DP distributed by WB? Why is Universal there?

[dakus]

On 3/12/2019 at 8:36 AM, TwoMisfits said:

Wonder Park's deal is literally affiliated with Amazon (it's an Atom/Amazon deal)...it's a top banner deal on both...

 

If you want an effect, I'll give the Saturday presales between my 2 locals - one Atom and one not, and neither AMC (Cinemark vs Regal), so no prebuy A-List subscriber effect...same amount of showings and neither really sells more or less for animateds...

 

(Regal) Atom theater tickets sold - 53, 46, 48, 9, 0 for 156 seats sold for Saturday

(Cinemark) Not Atom theater tickets sold - 17 (and this is a $5 show - other theater does not have a discount show), 3, 0, 0, 0 for 20 seats sold for Saturday

 

Now multiply that over the number of theaters that sell on Atom, and you get an enormous discrepancy when you look at both what a single theater performance might indicate and what a Fandango-only presale look might indicate...

 

I mean, heck, the single Atom local 12 theater has 1/4 the amount of all Fandango presales yesterday (and it's not like there were more than 100 total on Fandango in all the days before yesterday)...

Looks like you may have called it with the >20M weekend as of now. Atom Tickets too strong.

[TwoMisfits]

30 minutes ago, dakus said:

Looks like you may have called it with the >20M weekend as of now. Atom Tickets too strong.

The Atom deals for Wonder Park (and a lesser one for Five Feet Apart) have a real effect - both are flying over DOM OW tracking by at least a couple million $s (to possibly $10M for WP)...for these mid-range movies, that's a LOT of OW dollars that just isn't getting picked up by a Fandango only presales look or an "interest tracking" look b/c it's pushing spur of the sale buys...

 

I mean, I almost bought both movies this weekend when 5FA had another Atom deal last night, but it ran out too fast...and I can honestly say, 2 weeks ago, neither movie was on my "watch in theater" list:)...

 

PS - If either movie had good reviews, we may have seen an even more drastic effect:)...but alas...well, maybe Wonder Park will be good tomorrow - if not, it's short:)...

Edited March 16, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Shawn Robbins]

6 hours ago, Nova said:

Well I mean Detective Pikachu does come out a week before DP2 did AND Pikachu can also steal some of the family crowd from End Game that DP2 wasn’t taking away from IW. So I wouldn’t say that just because DP2 didn’t have much of an effect on IW then that means Pikachu won’t. Having said that, Pikachu has been on the release schedule so I’m sure Box office pro took it into consideration when making End Game’s original prediction. Plus while Pikachu is projected to do really well, it’s not anything crazy yet where you’d expect it to hurt End Game imo 

 

So there must be another reason why it was lowered. Maybe when @Shawn logs on he can explain  

It's only partly due to Pika's potential effect. The other big factor is a general expectation that it could be hard for Endgame to match IW's long-term performance without the same kind of "full MCU cast" bump that drove the entirety of IW. In other words, we'd rather bank on the typical "end of trilogy" type of drop from film #1 and/or film #2 that other mega franchises saw.

 

But this is why the total gross forecasts aren't considered part of the tracking element -- they're much more sensitive to word of mouth and reviews. If it sounds like Endgame is as fun of a movie as Avengers 1 and IW (pre-Snap), that could drive our # back up. Very much in flux.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

18 minutes ago, Shawn said:

It's only partly due to Pika's potential effect. The other big factor is a general expectation that it could be hard for Endgame to match IW's long-term performance without the same kind of "full MCU cast" bump that drove the entirety of IW. In other words, we'd rather bank on the typical "end of trilogy" type of drop from film #1 and/or film #2 that other mega franchises saw.

 

But this is why the total gross forecasts aren't considered part of the tracking element -- they're much more sensitive to word of mouth and reviews. If it sounds like Endgame is as fun of a movie as Avengers 1 and IW (pre-Snap), that could drive our # back up. Very much in flux.

Do you factor in runtime to the analysis? Most sequels are around the same time, but speculation based on what the Russo's have said is this could come in 30 minutes longer than IW. At the end of the day, that squeezes possible total shows down a bit. 

[Shawn Robbins]

13 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Do you factor in runtime to the analysis? Most sequels are around the same time, but speculation based on what the Russo's have said is this could come in 30 minutes longer than IW. At the end of the day, that squeezes possible total shows down a bit. 

Sorta... I think it had a bigger impact pre-digital when theaters were limited to a finite number of screens running physical prints. Still, it seems like a foregone conclusion this movie will get as much as it needs from theater bookers -- but I agree with the general idea that a movie can only be so long before it impacts someone's decision to see it (or when to see it). I think opening weekend is less more immune to that for this kind of event release, but I don't have specific data to back that up.

 

We actually did an interview with Joe Russo the other day and he confirmed what you alluded to, that the runtime hasn't gone down from what was last reported. It's starting to feel like we could see our first 3-hour Marvel movie -- but they could still edit it down, so who knows.

[Geveeso]

@Shawn Depending on when the interview was, Avengers: Endgame was announced as picture locked about a week ago.

[Deep Wang]

37 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Sorta... I think it had a bigger impact pre-digital when theaters were limited to a finite number of screens running physical prints. Still, it seems like a foregone conclusion this movie will get as much as it needs from theater bookers -- but I agree with the general idea that a movie can only be so long before it impacts someone's decision to see it (or when to see it). I think opening weekend is less immune to that for this kind of event release, but I don't have specific data to back that up.

 

 

Pretty much.  

 

From my experience, the long run time might only effect late shows.  You might see a steeper drop off late at night because a 11pm show means you ain't getting out of there until about 2:30am and so on.

 

But that's  only a problem if the demand isn't there. 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Pretty much.  

 

From my experience, the long run time might only effect late shows.  You might see a steeper drop off late at night because a 11pm show means you ain't getting out of there until about 2:30am and so on.

 

But that's  only a problem if the demand isn't there. 

 

Interesting. The extra 30 minutes of run time is one of the main reasons I'm predicting a drop for opening weekend. If it's not actually going to affect it as much as I thought, I might have to redo a lot of my estimations 🤣

[terrestrial]

5 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

Pretty much.  

From my experience, the long run time might only effect late shows.  You might see a steeper drop off late at night because a 11pm show means you ain't getting out of there until about 2:30am and so on.

But that's  only a problem if the demand isn't there.

You all got me thinking:

usually the cinemas prefer more showings I think.

But a full cinema (during sane times), with a 3 hours movie might mean lots of sold popcorn, soft-drinks,... during the maybe break

I guess there will be showings with a break, here e.g. 2:42min Avatar had both kind of showings, you could then chose that during booking. During the breaks nearly all ppl bought something, the guys bought something, the women went to the W.C..

I know it depeands on where / which region / country if they earn more per ticket or per food/drink stuff (forgot the term), but whats with a combination of both? = only counting forr over average booked rooms not sure if also with a less than average booked (e.g. staff needed)

Edited March 16, 2019 by terrestrial

[EconomySize]

	Tickets Sold
Pre Sales Day	Us	Glass	Halloween	The Nun
-11	1127	718	1577	413
-10	1107	867	1728	499
-9	1516	722	2464	630
-8	1775	568	2198	700
-7	1292	653	1730	775
-6	1267	1315	1281	631
-5		3191	3842	786
Mon-Sat Total	8084	4843	10978	3648
Ratio		1.6692	0.73638	2.216
OW		40.3	76.2	53.8
Projected OW		67.27	56.11	119.22

 

While the Nun is looking less and less like a good comp (it's presales jump until wed/thurs) I'd say 56-67 is a higher than expected reasonable range.  Sometime tomorrow, I will get the previous sales, as well as thursday broken out, so we can comp opening day sales too.  This is a little bigger than I would have thought, and there's a little upside for more if the prior sales are way above Halloween/Glass.  Tracking was 45-50 IIRC, so we can probably add 5-10 on top of that based on how sales have gone so far.

[Eric the Clown]

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Us	1,070	1,063	1,438	1,599	1,427	1,136	3,356
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days
Shazam Early	0	0	12,509	4,979	2,524	1,407	1,982
			10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days
Dumbo	777	685	442	390	257	174	328
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days	14 days	13 days	12 days
Shazam!	0	0	918	603	275	143	207
			23 days	22 days	21 days	20 days	19 days

 

 

Us

Last Seven Days

208% of Glass (83.8M 3-Day,  96.6M 4-Day)

Day 14-Day 5

183% of Glass (74M 3-Day, 85.3M 4-Day)

 

Dumbo

Day 18-Day 12

162% of Lego 2 (55.5M)

105% of Dragon 3 (57.5M)

 

Cumulative

160% of Lego 2 (54.8M)

55% of Dragon 3 (30.1M)

 

Shazam

33% of Captain Marvel (50.6M)

 

Those weekend numbers hurt Dumbo and Shazam quite a bit, but they're both still doing fine, and they've got a couple more weeks left when it comes to presales. Us is doing exceptional as always, and the fact it didn't dip below 1,000 the week before release has to mean something.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Shazam

33% of Captain Marvel (50.6M)

 

Query:  I presume it does, but does this include the Early Screening for Shazam that is coming this Saturday? 

 

As an aside, one theater in town went nuts for that Fandango screening and has scheduled 10 screenings for it already.   Plus another 7 showings for its dinner and a movie complex next door.  

 

No one else has even put up more than two so far.

 

(the Fandango screening is selling pretty well at Century Arden, BTW.  Very well in fact [front two rows only for both the 4pm and 7pm showings, plus or minus a stray seat])

Edited March 18, 2019 by Porthos

[That One Girl]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Us

Last Seven Days

208% of Glass (83.8M 3-Day,  96.6M 4-Day)

Day 14-Day 5

183% of Glass (74M 3-Day, 85.3M 4-Day)

 

might have to bump up my prediction to 90M.

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Query:  I presume it does, but does this include the Early Screening for Shazam that is coming this Saturday? 

No. It is almost useless to compare Shazam's numbers to anything else until after those early screenings to be honest.

[Eric the Clown]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Query:  I presume it does, but does this include the Early Screening for Shazam that is coming this Saturday? 

 

As an aside, one theater in town went nuts for that Fandango screening and has scheduled 10 screenings for it already.   Plus another 7 showings for its dinner and a movie complex next door.  

 

No one else has even put up more than two so far.

 

(the Fandango screening is selling pretty well at Century Arden, BTW.  Very well in fact [front two rows only for both the 4pm and 7pm showings, plus or minus a stray seat])

No. I separated the Shazam early screenings away from the regular screenings, because I feel like it's kind of cheating combining the two together.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

No. I separated the Shazam early screenings away from the regular screenings, because I feel like it's kind of cheating combining the two together.

Fair enuf.  Is it going to be reported as part of its OW though by WB?  I ask coz I really don't know. 

[Eric the Clown]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Fair enuf.  Is it going to be reported as part of its OW though by WB?  I ask coz I really don't know. 

Probably not. Spider-Verse aside, the early screenings for just about every movie that's done it in the past year have been counted separately, and I don't see Shazam doing anything different.

[ThomasNicole]

Us is becoming a possible monster... it will be great if it manage a $ 80M or so. I’m expecting $ 50M now but the bigger the better.

 

Dumbo seems really strong too, considering is still early... I think $ 60M is completely possible,  I hope it manages something like $ 65-67M just to cross $ 200M.

 

Shazam seems kinda off but it should pick up after break embargo on the 23th.