The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

18 minutes ago, cax16 said:

 

Also in that article, it mentions Pet Sematary tracking at around 28-30M. Pretty solid all things considered for it.

[fabiopazzo2]

3 hours ago, cax16 said:

 

Who made this sh*t? 

[PenguinHyphy]

4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Back from the dentist. Now let's look at the other stuff.

 

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Us	1,070	1,063	1,438
	11 days	10 days	9 days
Shazam Early	0	0	12,509
			10 days
Dumbo	777	685	442
	18 days	17 days	16 days
Shazam!	0	0	918
			23 days

 

Us

Days 14-9

136% of Glass (54.7M using the 3-Day, 63.1M using the 4-Day)

 

Dumbo

Days 18-16

144% of Dragon 3 (79.3M)

 

Cumulative

48% of Dragon 3 (26.3M) (Note Dragon 3 had 17 days more presales)

 

Shazam

Day 23

59% of Captain Marvel (90.9M)

 

First Day of Presales

15% of Captain Marvel (23.5M)

 

So yeah, there's a lot to unpack here.

 

-Us is continuing to kill it here, gaining on Glass by significant margins. Considering Glass is a more fan-driven movie (although Get Out/Peele fans might hurt my argument here), this is doing excellently.

 

-Dumbo's coming back down to earth more as presales slow down a touch, but still going strong.

 

-Shazam is way too early to call, with two extremes depending on where you're going. But getting close to 1,000 is a great start either way.

 

I wish I could use the Dragon 3 Fandango show to compare with the Shazam Fandango show, but the problem comes with showtimes. Shazam has two, while Dragon had 1. That makes comparing the two exceedingly difficult. Ah well.

That Us number is not too far off from Halloween's nine-days-before-release number if I remember correctly. Us being an original movie that is not based upon anything else suggests that it oughta be less pre-sale based and perform better with walk-up movie goers, which means that we might be anticipating another huge opening weekend. Those numbers are impressive, and the analysts appear to be right about March being the beginning of this year's resurgence.   

[el sid]

Pulse always 8:35-8:49 EST:

Wonder Park: 44/15 minutes – yesterday at that time it had 24/15; comparisons could be The Grinch (67.6M OW) with 184/15, How to Train Your Dragon3 (55.0M OW) with 227/15 or The Lego Movie2 (34.1M OW) with 110/15 and the most positive comparison is The Kid Who Would be King (7.2M OW) which had 16/15.
Five Feet Apart: 23/15.
Captive State: 7/15 – yesterday it were 3/15; Escape Room had 36/15 minutes, Overlord 27/15 and The Prodigy 3/15.

 

And Pulse always 11:22-11:34 EST (I forgot that the time change is earlier in the USA than in Europe so it's a little bit in advance of the films which are released this weekend):

Wonder Park: 51/13 minutes – The Grinch had 294/15, How to Train Your Dragon3 325/15 and The Lego Movie2 160/15, unfortunately here I have no numbers for The Kid Who Would be King; I would also say it looks like 10M+ for Wonder Park.
Five Feet Apart: 42/13 – Isn't It Romantic (Wednesday release) had on Tuesday at that time 63/15, not that bad.
Captive State: 7/13 – still very muted; Escape Room had 80/15 minutes, Overlord 50/15 and The Prodigy 25/15; even the boxoffice.com prediction of 5M OW looks too optimistic at the moment.

MT:
#1 CM 59.6%
#2 HtTYD3 7.8%
#3 Wonder Park 6.9%
#4 Five Feet Apart 4.5%
#5 A Madea Family Funeral 2.4%

Edited March 14, 2019 by el sid

[Eric Duncan]

36 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

That Us number is not too far off from Halloween's nine-days-before-release number if I remember correctly. Us being an original movie that is not based upon anything else suggests that it oughta be less pre-sale based and perform better with walk-up movie goers, which means that we might be anticipating another huge opening weekend. Those numbers are impressive, and the analysts appear to be right about March being the beginning of this year's resurgence.   

The one thing that I feel could be a potential factor in this being pre-sale driven is it being a follow-up to Get Out. The ads strongly market this is Jordan Peele's next movie, and I feel there's potential here that Get Out/Peele fans might make this pre-sales driven. I'd be happy to be wrong tho

[dakus]

Five Feet Apart jumped to #2 on the Fandango hourly chart

[Eric Duncan]

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Us	1,070	1,063	1,438	1,599
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Shazam Early	0	0	12,509	4,979
			10 days	9 days
Dumbo	777	685	442	390
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days
Shazam!	0	0	918	603
			23 days	22 days

 

 

Us

Day 14-8

150% of Glass (60.5M 3-Day, 69.8M 4-Day)

 

Dumbo

Day 18-15

131% of Dragon 3 (72.2M)

326% of Lego 2 (111.3M)

 

Cumulative

53% of Dragon 3 (28.7M)

315% of Lego 2 (107.6M)

 

Shazam!

Day 23-22

57% of Captain Marvel (87.3M)

 

 

I added Lego in as a Dumbo comp, because for a long while, when comparing the two, Dumbo's OW would have translated to impossible openings like 400M. But now it's come back to earth...kind of. Obviously those 100M openings are super high, but it should come down to Earth enough where we'll have good enough numbers we can use for Dumbo in the future.

 

And yeah, everything else is basically the same as yesterday, no other insight to add here.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Us	1,070	1,063	1,438	1,599
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Shazam Early	0	0	12,509	4,979
			10 days	9 days
Dumbo	777	685	442	390
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days
Shazam!	0	0	918	603
			23 days	22 days

 

 

Us

Day 14-8

150% of Glass (60.5M 3-Day, 69.8M 4-Day)

 

Dumbo

Day 18-15

131% of Dragon 3 (72.2M)

326% of Lego 2 (111.3M)

 

Cumulative

53% of Dragon 3 (28.7M)

315% of Lego 2 (107.6M)

 

Shazam!

Day 23-22

57% of Captain Marvel (87.3M)

 

 

I added Lego in as a Dumbo comp, because for a long while, when comparing the two, Dumbo's OW would have translated to impossible openings like 400M. But now it's come back to earth...kind of. Obviously those 100M openings are super high, but it should come down to Earth enough where we'll have good enough numbers we can use for Dumbo in the future.

 

And yeah, everything else is basically the same as yesterday, no other insight to add here.

Do you have a Christopher Robin comp for Dumbo? 

[EconomySize]

So I have slightly different numbers for Us than CoolEric (based on pulling the data at different times I'm sure), but a little bit more in the comp space.:

	Tickets Sold
Pre Sales Day	Us	Quiet Place	Glass	Halloween	The Nun
-11	1127	132	718	1577	413
-10	1107	123	867	1728	499
-9	1516	191	722	2464	630
-8	1775	171	568	2198	700
-7		141	653	1730	775
-6		211	1315	1281	631
-5		597	3191	3842	786

 

A couple things to note here:

- Release day is day 0, so the Thursday previews are technically day -1.

-A Quiet Place isn't really a good comp.  It's sales really ratchet up on the Tuesday/Wednesday prior to release

- Glass, Halloween, and the Nun are better comps, however...

- I don't have great data prior to this past Monday (new feed), but I can tell you that part of what we see here between Us and Halloween is related to the long term pre-sales part.  Halloween had sold prior to Monday a total of 2810 tickets, and if you back that up another week, it had only sold 121 tickets.  For the better part of a month, Us had been moving around 50-100 tickets a day, and in the hundreds per day over the previous week.  So at this point, it has sold way more tickets than Halloween in aggregate.  Whether that will hold over the weekend is anyone's guess.  I will have a total ticket take sometime on Monday, so I can get a sense of the backlog of Us tickets that were sold.

 

Also, I have a Wrinkle in Time as a comp for Dumbo, but similar to Eric's analysis, Dumbo is crushing it like... well like a 10,000 pound elephant,.

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Do you have a Christopher Robin comp for Dumbo? 

Sadly, no. the farthest back I have for these kinds of comps days in advance goes all the way back to Glass.

[EconomySize]

51 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Do you have a Christopher Robin comp for Dumbo?

PreSales	Dumbo	Wrinkle	Pooh	Dumbo(Agg)	Pooh(Agg)
-30			124		124
-29			280		404
-28			152		556
-27			131		687
-26			62		749
-25			51		800
-24			76		876
-23			119		995
-22			81		1076
-21			105		1181
-20			93		1274
-19			57		1331
-18	910		58	910	1389
-17	631		124	1541	1513
-16	466		8	2007	1521
-15	399	593	94	2406	1615

*agg is the cumulative number

 

Because Dumbo is so upscale from Chrisropher Robin, the numbers aren't even close enough to comp.  In terms of aggregate pre-sales, it took Dumbo two days to accomplish what Christopher Robin did in two weeks.  Maybe we could use -14 and on as comps, but it doesn't work right now.

 

I was wrong about wrinkle, so using first day sales, Dumbo is 1.53*33.1 = 50.8 OW

Small sample problems abound with Wrinkle...

[That One Girl]

Us is going to do 80M minimum.  100M most likely.

[Boxofficerules]

20 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Us is going to do 80M minimum.  100M most likely.

Let’s not get carried away now, don’t want it opening to $50 million and have people be like “that disappointing”

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

54 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Us is going to do 80M minimum.  100M most likely.

I want to get on that hype train, but I do think it will be pre-sale heavy for an non-IP film. At any rate, 50m+ should definitely happen.

[That One Girl]

Just now, Jayhawk said:

I want to get on that hype train, but I do think it will be pre-sale heavy for an non-IP film. At any rate, 50m+ should definitely happen.

 

I'm not necessarily sold on it being presales heavy.  It's still an original horror movie, which is a genre that's primarily walkup driven to begin with.

[LeoC]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-detective-pikachu-poised-for-may-breakout-the-hustle-poms-to-court-mothers-day-moviegoers/

 

5/10/2019

Detective Pikachu

$90,000,000

NEW

$250,000,000

NEW

–

Universal

 

 

4/26/2019

Avengers: Endgame

$265,000,000

$635,000,000

-9%

–

Disney / Marvel

 

The long range tracking has A:EG dropped by 9%. Too much competition? 

 

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, LeoC said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-detective-pikachu-poised-for-may-breakout-the-hustle-poms-to-court-mothers-day-moviegoers/

 

5/10/2019

Detective Pikachu

$90,000,000

NEW

$250,000,000

NEW

–

Universal

 

 

4/26/2019

Avengers: Endgame

$265,000,000

$635,000,000

-9%

–

Disney / Marvel

 

The long range tracking has A:EG dropped by 9%. Too much competition? 

 

still doesnt make sense what so ever why detective pikachu will affect endgame more than deadpool 2 did with iw especially since they predict tha pika will not be as big they already knew that when they were doing their first forecast endgame will at least make 650 dom and also maybe i will believe them if they said a drop of 20-40 million but of 60  no fucking way still in general they have bad record at predict totals no blame thoug not enough info

Edited March 15, 2019 by john2000

[el sid]

I only counted Wonder Park and Captive State today and in all shortness: Captive State was ca. on par with The Prodigy at 8:35-8:49 EST with 24/15 to 27/15 sold tickets so at least it made a (relatively) big jump from the terrible numbers during the weekdays. 
Wonder Park had (especially with these reviews) fine 124/15 sold ticket at 8:35-8:49 EST - e.g. The Grinch had at that time 415/15 and The Kid Who Would be King only 66/15. 

And MT:
#1 CM 52.5%
#2 Wonder Park 12.3% - The Grinch had ca. 42% at that time, The Kid Who Would be King 5.5% but a little bit earlier 
#3 Five Feet Apart 9.3%
#4 HtTYD3 5.3%
#5 A Madea Family Funeral 2.7%

Edited March 15, 2019 by el sid

[Nova]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

still doesnt make sense what so ever why detective pikachu will affect endgame more than deadpool 2 did with iw especially since they predict tha pika will not be as big they already knew that when they were doing their first forecast endgame will at least make 650 dom and also maybe i will believe them if they said a drop of 20-40 million but of 60  no fucking way still in general they have bad record at predict totals no blame thoug not enough info

Well I mean Detective Pikachu does come out a week before DP2 did AND Pikachu can also steal some of the family crowd from End Game that DP2 wasn’t taking away from IW. So I wouldn’t say that just because DP2 didn’t have much of an effect on IW then that means Pikachu won’t. Having said that, Pikachu has been on the release schedule so I’m sure Box office pro took it into consideration when making End Game’s original prediction. Plus while Pikachu is projected to do really well, it’s not anything crazy yet where you’d expect it to hurt End Game imo 

 

So there must be another reason why it was lowered. Maybe when @Shawn logs on he can explain  

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, Nova said:

Well I mean Detective Pikachu does come out a week before DP2 did AND Pikachu can also steal some of the family crowd from End Game that DP2 wasn’t taking away from IW. So I wouldn’t say that just because DP2 didn’t have much of an effect on IW then that means Pikachu won’t. Having said that, Pikachu has been on the release schedule so I’m sure Box office pro took it into consideration when making End Game’s original prediction. Plus while Pikachu is projected to do really well, it’s not anything crazy yet where you’d expect it to hurt End Game imo 

 

So there must be another reason why it was lowered. Maybe when @Shawn logs on he can explain  

at least we can watch it blow the projection out of the water at least this one  endgame like iw did

Edited March 15, 2019 by john2000