The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[HouseOfTheSun]

4 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

80mil Thursday night, 100mil Friday, 120mil Saturday 100mil sunday. 

Something someday will actually do this and we’re gonna shit our pants 

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

80mil Thursday night, 100mil Friday, 120mil Saturday 100mil sunday. 

Funny thing is this will be perfectly reasonable for Avengers 7.

[charlie Jatinder]

-nvm-

Edited April 19, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

Just added something to one of my home spreadsheets, and it'll be part of the nightly report over the last eight days in their various sections.

 

But I thot people might like to see it separated for now.  

 

NOTE::: Last night's numbers:

 

1.2212x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [47.63m]
1.0864x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town. [42.37m]

1.8221x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.  [37.72m]

1.9837x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.    [49.99m]
1.9766x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.       [36.77m]
2.7770x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                  [39.16m]
2.5812x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking. [39.49m]

 

====

 

It'll be obvious from the chart descriptions, but for everything EXCEPT Captain Marvel, these would be under the 'adjusted' metric (i.e. no extra sources of tracking) that I use.

 

This also does kinda show just how much CM over-performed locally with all those extra showings (along with DP2).  But it isn't that far off of the lower bounds of Solo and JW2.

 

Still, this gives something of a guideline or the current state of Thr. 

 

I personally think only the IW comp is gonna be worth a damn (one reason everything else is behind spoiler bars when I make the report).  I just don't know if the "adj" comp or the "exact" comp is the one that's closer to the result than the other.

[Nero]

4 hours ago, Nova said:

That’s what I thought but its an AMC and i checked the others in the area and they have showtimes anywhere from 15-35 showtimes for it on Thursday night. 

 

Im honestly confused cause typically CBM play really well at my theater to the point where I usually over predict CBM based on how they sell there. And I know they can do more than 9 showtimes on Thursday night cause they’ve done it before lol 

Can you ask them why they are doing it? 

[MattW]

Keeping all tracking in this thread makes it easier to find in the future, also simplifies posting for those willing to put in the time to track multiple movies rather than switch between multiple threads and post the same comps mutliple times.  My thoughts at least.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, MattW said:

Keeping all tracking in a thread makes it easier to find in the future, also simplifies posting for those willing to put in the time to track multiple movies rather than switch between multiple threads and post the same comps mutliple times.  My thoughts at least.

That's why I shared a link here. From 7 days out, A:EG tracking in one thread. Rest film tracking can continue here.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, MattW said:

Keeping all tracking in this thread makes it easier to find in the future, also simplifies posting for those willing to put in the time to track multiple movies rather than switch between multiple threads and post the same comps mutliple times.  My thoughts at least.

This is just my opinion but I like to keep things simple. If the mods are okay with a separate thread, that's fine.  But me personally I think it'll be far easier for us to look back into this thread for comps than having to hunt down the extra thread and jump between them.

 

I get the idea of a separate thread, but it probably should have been started 100 pages ago.  With just 8 days left, seems kinda like.. eh to me.

 

What else are we going to be talking about starting Sunday anyway?  Are we really going to leave the tracking thread empty all next week?

 

Seems like a solution for a problem that didn't exist.

[charlie Jatinder]

Alright, I see the point. 

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

but it probably should have been started 100 pages ago.  With just 8 days left, seems kinda like

Perhaps Mods can nuke it.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Alright, I see the point. 

Perhaps Mods can nuke it.

Well, you can always report it yourself and ask the mods to close it/merge it back into this one.

Edited April 19, 2019 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

I believe it can be merged by the power of Mod.     

 

Interesting idea for next mega-blockbuster though, could make looking up details years down the line  easier in some ways (harder in others).

[Ledmonkey96]

Sold 189 tickets today, getting close to needing to add capacity 

 

Time	Seats Sold	Total seats	Reserved seating/broken	Theater	%
Thursday
6:00	130	130	7	1	100.00%
6:05	41	41	3	7	100.00%
6:10	42	42	3	5	100.00%
6:15	61	61	3	2	100.00%
6:30	41	41	3	6	100.00%
7:00	86	86	6	11	100.00%
7:00	130	130	9	13	100.00%
7:25	60	60	3	4	100.00%
7:45	86	86	5	12	100.00%
9:30	61	61	3	3	100.00%
9:55	122	130	7	1	93.85%
10:00	61	61	3	2	100.00%
	921	929	55
	866	874			99.08%
Time	Seats Sold	Total seats	Reserved seating/broken	Theater	%
Friday
12:00	69	86	6	11	80.23%
12:30	130	130	9	13	100.00%
1:00	74	86	5	12	86.05%
1:30	30	61	3	2	49.18%
2:00	102	130	7	1	78.46%
4:00	66	86	6	11	76.74%
4:15	112	130	9	13	86.15%
5:00	78	86	5	12	90.70%
5:30	52	61	3	2	85.25%
6:00	130	130	7	1	100.00%
8:00	79	86	6	11	91.86%
8:15	125	130	9	13	96.15%
9:00	80	86	5	12	93.02%
9:30	50	61	3	2	81.97%
10:00	115	130	7	1	88.46%
	1292	1479	90
	1202	1389			86.54%
Time	Seats Sold	Total seats	Reserved seating/broken	Theater	%
Saturday
9:00	78	86	5	12	90.70%
9:30	54	61	3	2	88.52%
10:00	115	130	7	1	88.46%
12:00	67	86	6	11	77.91%
12:30	113	130	9	13	86.92%
1:00	65	86	5	12	75.58%
1:30	47	61	3	2	77.05%
2:00	113	130	7	1	86.92%
4:00	72	86	6	11	83.72%
4:15	104	130	9	13	80.00%
5:00	76	86	5	12	88.37%
5:30	40	61	3	2	65.57%
6:00	111	130	7	1	85.38%
8:00	72	86	6	11	83.72%
8:15	115	130	9	13	88.46%
9:00	63	86	5	12	73.26%
9:30	38	61	3	2	62.30%
10:00	91	130	7	1	70.00%
	1434	1756	105
	1329	1651			80.50%
Time	Seats Sold	Total seats	Reserved seating/broken	Theater	%
Sunday
9:00	60	86	5	12	69.77%
9:30	44	61	3	2	72.13%
10:00	112	130	7	1	86.15%
12:00	60	86	6	11	69.77%
12:30	93	130	9	13	71.54%
1:00	71	86	5	12	82.56%
1:30	37	61	3	2	60.66%
2:00	97	130	7	1	74.62%
4:00	47	86	6	11	54.65%
4:15	88	130	9	13	67.69%
5:00	58	86	5	12	67.44%
5:30	30	61	3	2	49.18%
6:00	49	130	7	1	37.69%
8:00	22	86	6	11	25.58%
8:15	26	130	9	13	20.00%
9:00	24	86	5	12	27.91%
9:30	3	61	3	2	4.92%
10:00	8	130	7	1	6.15%
	929	1756	105
	824	1651			49.91%
	4576	5920			77.30%
	4221	5565	355		75.85%
As of 4/11/19	Tickets Sold	Total Tickets	% sold
Thursday	866	874	99.08%
Friday	1202	1389	86.54%
Saturday	1329	1651	80.50%
Sunday	824	1651	49.91%
Total	4221	5565	75.85%
IW full weekend	5869
% of IW	71.92%

 

Sold 189 tickets today getting pretty close to current capacity with a week to go.

 

Edited April 19, 2019 by Ledmonkey96

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

 

16927 through 19 updates. 

22671 through 19 yesterday.

 

Slagging behind a bit. Down to a rate of 74.7%

 

Will probably finish about 25000, which would put it roughly 34% ahead of the comparative IW day. 

 

Looks headed to more like 27.5k on the rolling tracker, good for about 1.5x again. Thoughts?

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

Looks headed to more like 27.5k on the rolling tracker, good for about 1.5x again. Thoughts?

 

$300m 👀

 

It definitely looks strong still. Even with my 25% safety adjustment, it’s still above IW. 

 

Next week will be the real tell for how much demand is left after the enormous initial surge. Monday will need to come in over 70k 😱

[stfletch]

Updated. Using the 24h rolling tracker so will drop a bit from this update (I always go back and edits my posts with final number the next day). May end up as a 1.4, AEG:AIW for today, but won't be any lower than that.

 

AIW Date	Days to Open	AIW Tickets	AEG Date	AEG Tickets	AEG/AIW	Notes
2018-03-16	41	29,410
2018-03-17	40	16,237
2018-03-18	39	10,631
2018-03-19	38	14,574
2018-03-20	37	9,366
2018-03-21	36	8,281
2018-03-22	35	6,101
2018-03-23	34	3,753
2018-03-24	33	2,426
2018-03-25	32	3,655
2018-03-26	31	5,191
2018-03-27	30	4,647
2018-03-28	29	4,241
2018-03-29	28	3,060
2018-03-30	27	2,134
2018-03-31	26	2,471
2018-04-01	25	3,662
2018-04-02	24	7,257
2018-04-03	23	6,866	2019-04-02	330,000		Pulse down entire day
2018-04-04	22	7,917	2019-04-03	40,000		Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-05	21	5,692	2019-04-04	30,292	5.3
2018-04-06	20	3,618	2019-04-05	17,428	4.8
2018-04-07	19	3,383	2019-04-06	11,697	3.5
2018-04-08	18	6,363	2019-04-07	16,137	2.5
2018-04-09	17	10,828	2019-04-08	28,219	2.6
2018-04-10	16	8,670	2019-04-09	24,701	2.8
2018-04-11	15	13,960	2019-04-10	25,617	1.8
2018-04-12	14	13,332	2019-04-11	23,680	1.8
2018-04-13	13	7,614	2019-04-12	15,554	2.0
2018-04-14	12	5,602	2019-04-13	11,720	2.1
2018-04-15	11	9,314	2019-04-14	17,436	1.9
2018-04-16	10	18,403	2019-04-15	26,081	1.4
2018-04-17	9	19,431	2019-04-16	28,287	1.5
2018-04-18	8	23,790	2019-04-17	34,783	1.5
2018-04-19	7	18,788	2019-04-18	27,802	1.5
2018-04-20	6	14,281
2018-04-21	5	12,368
2018-04-22	4	27,180
2018-04-23	3	48,861
2018-04-24	2	55,376
2018-04-25	1	68,137
2018-04-26	0	76,734
* Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week
**Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data

Edited April 19, 2019 by stfletch

[Joyous Legion]

I’m going to be seeing it opening night at a quaint little town in Vermont. Here’s the Thursday tracking:  

Showings: 3 (most films 0 preview showings)   

 

Seats sold: 0/~800 (only available day of with cash at counter)

 

FSS schedule will be put up in about 6 days 20 hours.

Edited April 19, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[FlashMaster659]

Shoot, just missed the 24 hr mark. Anyways, the rolling 24 hr tracker has Endgame at 27,813 right now.

[charlie Jatinder]

Since: 2019-04-18 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	36.678%	25106	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	12.362%	8462	The Curse of La Llorona
3	08.260%	5654	Shazam!
4	05.749%	3935	Captain Marvel (2019)
5	05.259%	3600	Breakthrough (2019)
6	04.183%	2863	Little (2019)
7	03.880%	2656	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
8	03.104%	2125	Dumbo (2019)
9	02.548%	1744	Missing Link (2019)
10	02.259%	1546	Pet Sematary (2019)

[Cap]

Lincoln Center - AEG Opening Weekend

Day	Sold	Available	Percentage
Thursday	4361	4766	91.50
Friday	6030	8372	72.02
Saturday	5196	7732	67.20
Sunday	4029	7732	52.10
Total	19616	28602	68.58

 

Full Chart:

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

Thursday	4/3	4/5	4/11	4/18		Friday	4/3	4/5	4/11	4/18		Saturday	4/3	4/5	4/11	4/18		Sunday	4/3	4/5	4/11	4/18
	Sold				Total		Sold				Total		Sold				Total		Sold				Total
IMAX						IMAX						IMAX						IMAX
6:00 PM	Sold Out	480	480	480	480	2:30 AM	Front Row	434	446	459	480	2:30 AM	75+	349	353	378	480	2:30 AM	50+	278	278	299	480
10:15 PM	Sold Out	480	480	480	480	6:30 AM	75+	358	373	393	480	6:30 AM	75+	393	353	377	480	6:30 AM	50+	295	295	326	480
						10:30 AM	Front Row	432	439	448	480	N/A						N/A
						2:30 PM	Front Row	443	458	462	480	2:30 PM	Front Row	447	450	456	480	2:30 PM	Front Row	449	451	461	480
						6:30 PM	Sold Out	471	470	474	480	6:30 PM	Sold Out	435	466	469	480	6:30 PM	Front Row	441	441	444	480
						10:30 PM	Sold Out	468	469	471	480	10:30 PM	Front Row	439	449	454	480	10:30 PM	75+	383	383	378	480
Dolby						Dolby						Dolby						Dolby
6:00 PM	Sold Out	289	295	295	297	2:00 AM	75+	248	250	259	297	3:00 AM	50+	103	120	140	297	3:00 AM	N/A	20	34	50	297
10:00 PM	Sold Out	289	289	289	297	7:00 AM	50+	176	196	191	297	7:00 AM	75+	191	213	231	297	7:00 AM	25+	92	115	155	297
						11:00 AM	Front Row	270	277	272	297	11:00 AM	Sold Out	286	287	286	297	11:00 AM	Front Row	246	259	269	297
						3:00 PM	Front Row	258	275	280	297	3:00 PM	Front Row	267	277	283	297	3:00 PM	Front Row	260	268	278	297
						7:00 PM	Sold Out	290	290	290	297	7:00 PM	Front Row	276	282	286	297	7:00 PM	Front Row	261	266	267	297
						11:00 PM	Sold Out	281	285	288	297	11:00 PM	Front Row	261	260	265	297	11:00 PM	50+	112	142	159	297
RealD 3D						Real D3D						Real D3D						Real D3D
6:15 PM		N/A	N/A	138	157	7:30 AM	> 5	8	8	9	348	7:30 AM	>5	12	4	8	348	7:30 AM	>5	8	14	14	348
6:30 PM		336	336	335	348	11:30 AM	25+	52	79	152	348	11:30 AM	25+	54	73	119	348	11:30 AM	25+	58	79	107	348
9:45 PM		N/A	N/A	169	244	3:30 PM	25+	53	91	131	348	3:30 PM	50+	60	131	181	348	3:30 PM	25+	63	114	122	348
10:30 PM		255	278	287	348	7:30 PM	75+	272	283	305	348	7:30 PM	50+	25	166	266	348	7:30 PM	25+	32	32	47	348
						11:30 PM	25+	41	57	76	348	11:30 PM	>5	0	2	12	348	11:30 PM	>5	0	0	0	348
Standard						Standard						Standard						Standard
6:00 PM	Front Row	340	343	349	362	12:00 AM	25+	70	85	116	173	12:00 AM	> 5	20	35	96	362	12:00 AM	>5	0	4	96	362
7:00 PM	Front Row	258	261	267	280	12:30 AM	0	13	25	45	173	8:00 AM	>5	39	58	54	362	8:00 AM	>5	11	16	28	362
7:30 PM	Front Row	199	211	202	218	1:00 AM	0	0	1	19	176	12:00 PM	50+	89	187	218	362	12:00 PM	25+	89	118	173	362
8:00 PM	Front Row	148	154	155	173	8:00 AM	> 5	13	29	54	362	4:00 PM	50+	193	235	295	362	4:00 PM	50+	130	166	243	362
8:30 PM	Front Row	150	151	151	173	12:00 PM	25+	119	151	219	362	8:00 PM	50+	213	268	322	362	8:00 PM	25+	59	82	113	362
9:00 PM	Front 2 Rows	149	154	157	176	4:00 PM	50+	204	241	295	362
9:30 PM	Front 2 Rows	177	177	175	199	8:00 PM	Front Row	301	317	322	362
11:00 PM	75+	220	252	266	316
11:30 PM	50+	130	163	166	218
TOTAL		3900	4024	4361	4766			5275	5595	6030	8372			4152	4669	5196	7732			3287	3557	4029	7732

 

Notes:

- Thursday added two showings (additional 400 seats) which pulled the percentage down to only 91.50%.

- A couple of the individual showings lost seats, but the overall tickets sold increased by 1771 ticket.

[Porthos]

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	18	243	5107	24576	79.22%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:               1

Total Seats Sold Today:                  240

 

Infinity War Comps:

1.8585x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 7 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.2345x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [48.15m]
1.0989x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town. [42.86m]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

IW (T-7)              359 tickets sold that day   [5 sellouts/136 showings   | 4380/13124 seats left  | 66.63% sold]      

EG (adj*):              175 tickets sold today       [18 sellouts/243 showings | 3882/20133 seats left  | 80.72% sold]

EG (exact**):           165 tickets sold today       [18 sellouts/217 showings | 3454/17920 seats left  | 80.73% sold]

---

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   16251 tickets sold so far   [18 sellouts/243 showings | 3882/20133 seats left  | 80.72% sold]

EG (exact**):  14466 tickets sold so far   [18 sellouts/217 showings | 3454/17920 seats left  | 80.73% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

Spoiler

Captain Marvel:

Spoiler

 

4.1565x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel 7 days before release. [CM had 58 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
1.8449x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.     [38.19m]

 

CM (T-7):          116 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/116 showings  | 8209/12893 seats left  | 36.33% sold]

CM (final):     10553 tickets sold at stop   [8 sellouts/216 showings  | 9439/19992 seats left  | 52.79% sold]

EG:                19469 tickets sold so far    [18 sellouts/243 showings | 5107/24576 seats left | 79.22% sold]

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, so the unadjusted comp is being used here, even though Endgame is playing in a couple more theaters locally. Check the main stat box for the number of tickets sold today if you want to compare it to the number of tickets Captain Marvel sold on its second day.

 

Selected Other Comps (T-7 and Final):

Spoiler

4.4744x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 7 days before release. [BP had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
4.8743x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 7 days before release. [DP2 had 29 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
4.3371x as many tickets sold as Solo 7 days before release. [Solo had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
8.1622x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 7 days before release. [JW2 had 22 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]

 

BP (T-7)             178 tickets sold that day [4 sellouts/73 showings     |  3969/7601 seats left    | 47.78% sold]

DP2 (T-7)          119 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/121 showings   | 10133/13467 seats left | 24.76% sold] 

Solo (T-7)          112 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/92 showings      |  6399/10146 seats left  | 36.93% sold]

JW2 (T-7)           122 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/111 showings   |  9272/11263 seats left | 17.68% sold]

EG(adj*) (T-7)      175 tickets sold today     [18 sellouts/243 showings | 3882/20133 seats left  | 80.72% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

----

 

2.0053x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.    [50.53m]
1.9982x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.       [37.17m]
2.8072x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                  [39.58m]
2.6093x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking. [39.92m]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

BP (final):     8104 tickets sold at stop [26 sellouts/136 showings |  3377/11481 seats left  | 70.59% sold]

DP2 (final):   8133 tickets sold at stop [3 sellouts/169 showings   |  8357/16490 seats left  | 49.32% sold]

Solo (final):  5789 tickets sold at stop [5 sellouts/143 showings    |  7732/13521 seats left | 42.81% sold]

JW2 (final):   6228 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/147 showings     |  7487/13715 seats left | 45.41% sold]

EG (adj*):   16251 tickets sold so far   [18 sellouts/243 showings | 3882/20133 seats left  | 80.72% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

 

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 7 days before release)

Fri:   1 sellout/364 showings                 [IW: 0/215]

Sat:  0 sellouts/355 showings (+0/+1)  [IW: 0/216]

Sun: 0 sellouts/335 showings                [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  18/243  (+1/+1) [2D: 17/195 | 3D: 1/44 (+1/+0)]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 214 screens [IW: 99 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:    18* [+1]  [IW: 5]

90-95%: 52  [+4] [IW: 11]

80-89%: 56  [-3]  [IW: 18]

70-79%: 36  [+2] [IW: 23]

60-69%: 22  [+1]  [IW: 17]

50-59%:   9  [-1] [IW: 6]

40-49%:   6  [-3] [IW: 3]

30-39%:   5  [-1] [IW: 5]

20-29%:   6  [+1] [IW: 3]

10-19%:   5  [-1] [IW: 4]

0-9%:       1  [nc] [IW: 4]

 

* includes two sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

Edited April 22, 2019 by Porthos