The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Claudio]

If TS4 really breaks out with $200M , will it has some kind of effect to TLK opening and total ??? Given they both are 4-quad movie and could hurt each other especially when they come out just 1 month apart. I think it will.

[Taruseth]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

We all knew 2019 was gonna be the year of Disney domination but we might've underestimated just how high they would go. And looking at their slate for next year it appears there's no way it'll keep up since they're bringing out all the big guns this year.

Maybe the highest grossing of they movies next year would be like #6 this year, behind Endgame, TROS, TLK, F2 and TS4, lol...

Sorry, but that is basically to crazy to happen.

 

 

Also a year ago I said TS4 would open with 90m and end with 270m...

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

If this could happen, that would be amazing, but F2 opens on a Friday during the weekend before Thanksgiving, so that is the unlikeliest out of those.

Yeah, I think only Endgame, FFH, TROS with a good shot, and even those two aren’t guaranteed.      

 

I have a hard time imagining the F2 OW below TS4, and that pre-Thanksgiving weekend has coughed up an adjusted 170+ OW with Catching Fire.

[filmlover]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

You say that, but just wait until Jungle Cruise makes $1B DOM

Emma Stone is gonna be the queen of Christmas next year if the current schedule stays the way it is.

 

[Stewart]

Just now, Claudio said:

If TS4 really breaks out with $200M , will it has some kind of effect to TLK opening and total ??? Given they both are 4-quad movie and could hurt each other especially when they come out just 1 month apart. I think it will.

Logically, you'd think it might be affected somewhat. 

 

But Disney seems to defy logic this year, so probably just increase the predictions for TLK instead.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Claudio said:

If TS4 really breaks out with $200M , will it has some kind of effect to TLK opening and total ??? Given they both are 4-quad movie and could hurt each other especially when they come out just 1 month apart. I think it will.

1 month is plenty of time. If anything it will be more a problem for FFH, but that should have pretty different demographics for its OW than TS4 would be getting at that point.

[Cap]

5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

If this could happen, that would be amazing, but F2 opens on a Friday during the weekend before Thanksgiving, so that is the unlikeliest out of those.

 

I would like some receipts on this. Cause I am not following this logic. Toy Story 4 and TLK also open on non-Holiday weekends. So, why do you think Disney’s highest merchandise seller won’t open as high or higher than those IPs? 

[Tinalera]

Has there been anything in marketing thats suggested this will be the final one? I know i read little bits that hanks and co were very emotional about after reading final dialogue. 

Toy Story seems to have that "evergreen" type of nature where people love the characters and it does well merchandise wise. It wouldnt surprise me if it did 200 million its opening weekend...it has that type of love ( it will be an interesting comparison vs frozen 2 another blockbuster)

[Maximum Avery]

34 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I am not tracking that film due to its Tuesday release. I plan to just do a final seat count on the holiday weekend. On a cursory glance, at the SMCM IMAX screen: 7PM is about 60% full. Rest of Tuesday is Light. 

 

At LS13’s the IMAX screen is 45% full for 12:01am, and front two row only for 6:30 and 9:45pm

 

Hmm. Damn. 

 

 Now you have me curious. I might do an actual seat count this weekend.  We’ll see. 

 

 

True, but we all know whose gonna be the true monster:

 

 

 

ETA, after reading deadlines new article:

 

if Toy Story 4 makes over 200M OW, so excited for Frozen II to take TFA’s second place OW crown. Cause, what? Whaaaa?

Omg... i thought that was from frozen 2 xD  couldnt read beyond 'froz' from the link pic ... 😛 damn this is also a good song... lion king 890m frozen 2 630m ^^

 

TTVOMJ

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Tinalera said:

Has there been anything in marketing thats suggested this will be the final one? I know i read little bits that hanks and co were very emotional about after reading final dialogue. 

Toy Story seems to have that "evergreen" type of nature where people love the characters and it does well merchandise wise. It wouldnt surprise me if it did 200 million its opening weekend...it has that type of love ( it will be an interesting comparison vs frozen 2 another blockbuster)

Think I saw somewhere that this is Hanks' last Toy Story, though that doesn't necessarily mean they won't pay up to make more. 

 

Though given this series is over 25 years old at some point, with much the same cast, it's not all that surprising if it is the end.

[Maximum Avery]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I would like some receipts on this. Cause I am not following this logic. Toy Story 4 and TLK also open on non-Holiday weekends. So, why do you think Disney’s highest merchandise seller won’t open as high or higher than those IPs? 

I am a bit lazy to google, but isnt like tlk their biggest merch? Or did frozen surpass it? ..which would be incredible since tlk counts huge dvd and vhs sales on top of BO and lets not forget  gazzilions only from the musical o.O

 

TTVOMJ

[RealLyre]

would be wild if Disney has 5 200M+ openers this year 

 

Avengers Endgame 357M

Toy Story 4 : 200M

Frozen 2 : 200M

Lion King 200M

Star Wars 210M

 

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

6 minutes ago, Maximum Avery said:

I am a bit lazy to google, but isnt like tlk their biggest merch? Or did frozen surpass it? ..which would be incredible since tlk counts huge dvd and vhs sales on top of BO and lets not forget  gazzilions only from the musical o.O

 

TTVOMJ

Wouldn't shock me if Cars is pretty close to the top. Kids love Cars.

[Claudio]

21 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Logically, you'd think it might be affected somewhat. 

 

But Disney seems to defy logic this year, so probably just increase the predictions for TLK instead.

Yes. Everything can happens. Defying logic , over perform , crashing and break out always fun when it happens. But prediction is fun when you're using logic , comp and data history. So let's discuss using logical way 😁

 

20 minutes ago, Menor said:

1 month is plenty of time. If anything it will be more a problem for FFH, but that should have pretty different demographics for its OW than TS4 would be getting at that point.

1 month is plenty of time when you're opening blockbuster but not enough when you're opening uber blockbuster. Let's say TS4 with $200M makes $500M with shit legs then Lion king makes like most people predict around $600-$700 tot.

 

Now you have $500M and $600M movie in just one month. Out of 13 over $500M domestic movies rn the closest is I2 and IW with almost 2 months apart. 

 

Edit : wrong month count

Edited May 30, 2019 by Claudio

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Claudio said:

Out of 13 over $500M domestic movies rn the closest is I2 and IW with almost 3 months apart. 

Less than 2 months apart

[ThomasNicole]

I remember last year i say TS4 could challenge I2 and a lot of people laugh lol 

 

Now i don’t think it will happen, I2 was just too big, but i think these super high projections at least shows that this is coming for TS3 crown, people keep fooling themselves thinking such a beloved franchise will drop so much because of nothing.

[That One Girl]

RIP my club?

[Claudio]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Less than 2 months apart

Ah you’re right. Counting time isn’t my best skill I guess.

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

would be wild if Disney has 4 200M+ openers this year 

 

Avengers Endgame 357M

Toy Story 4 : 200M

Lion King 200M

Star Wars 210M

 

 

 

My expectations, right now, are like this....

 

Toy Story 4: $160m

Lion King: $220m

Frozen 2: $175m

TROS: $210m

[Cookson]

My theater seems to be doing some good Godzilla business tonight.