The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

On 6/4/2019 at 10:38 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-04 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	21.868%	15404	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	17.815%	12549	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	12.047%	8486	Rocketman
4	09.066%	6386	Ma (2019)
5	08.738%	6155	Dark Phoenix [combined]
6	06.709%	4726	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
7	04.723%	3327	The Secret Life of Pets 2
8	04.397%	3097	Avengers Endgame (2019)
9	03.604%	2539	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
10	02.358%	1661	Booksmart

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-05 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	19.351%	13051	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	14.260%	9618	Dark Phoenix [combined]
4       12.963% 8743    Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined] 
3	12.305%	8299	Rocketman
5	11.006%	7423	The Secret Life of Pets 2
6	05.338%	3600	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
7	05.074%	3422	Ma (2019)
8	04.239%	2859	Avengers Endgame (2019)
9	02.912%	1964	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
10	02.053%	1385	Booksmart

 

Last Wed:

 

On 5/29/2019 at 10:39 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-29 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	31.064%	19958	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	17.220%	11063	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	10.389%	6675	Rocketman
4	09.263%	5951	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
5	06.129%	3938	Avengers Endgame (2019) [combined]
6	03.787%	2433	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
7	03.603%	2315	Booksmart
8	03.426%	2201	Ma (2019)
9	02.920%	1876	Toy Story 4 [combined]
10	02.662%	1710	Brightburn
11	01.086%	698	Dark Phoenix [combined]

 

Dark Phoenix now falling a decent clip behind KotM's equivalent day. 

Edited June 6, 2019 by Porthos

[Eric Prime]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Deadpool 2

23,134

28,896

41,212

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

Jurassic World 2

9,310

12,761

23,266

Antman & The Wasp

6,613

5,990

11,108

Hotel Transylvania 3

1,753

2,674

6,605

14,754

MI6

*3,328

13,575

27,261

Christopher Robin

1,560

2,442

5,355

11,509

Venom

13,602

13,818

20,867

31,569

The Grinch

3,580

4,860

10,092

17,046

Fantastic Beasts

8,956

14,238

21,861

31,880

Spider-Verse

3,715

5,208

9,858

19,972

Aquaman

8,502

9,671

15,063

Glass

3,106

3,978

6,478

17,810

Lego Movie 2

2,552

4,130

8,601

13,320

How to Train Your Dragon 3

3,724

6,674

12,935

21,313

Dumbo

3,069

4,624

9,218

16,140

Pokemon Detective Pikachu

5,061

7,653

13,177

23,309

Aladdin

9,948

12,038

21,152

31,549

The Secret Life of Pets 2

2,967

3,245

7,355

Dark Phoenix

3,925

6,059

9,348

*4pm-12am

 

Pets 2

Wednesday

56% of Pikachu (30.3M)

35% of Aladdin (31.8M 3-Day, 40.6M 4-Day)

57% of Dragon 3 (31.3M)

85% of Lego 2 (29.2M)

80% of Dumbo (36.7M)

137% of Christopher Robin (33.8M)

111% of Hotel 3 (49M)

73% of Grinch (49.2M)

 

Day 11-2

73% of Grinch (49.7M)

135% of Hotel 3 (59.4M)

 

Day 18-2

73% of Grinch (49.4M)

136% of Hotel 3 (59.9M)

 

So the good news is almost everything from the first set rose from yesterday. The bad news is the other sets saw a decline, and...yeah, none of these numbers are pretty.

 

Dark Phoenix

Wednesday

43% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (26.6M)

33% of Solo (27.6M 3-Day, 33.7M 4-Day)

23% of Deadpool 2 (28.5M)

95% of Spider-Verse (33.5M)

45% of Venom (35.9M)

62% of Aquaman (42.1M)

69% of Fallout (42.2M)

144% of Glass (58.2M 3-Day, 67.1M 4-Day)

40% of Fallen Kingdom (59.5M)

84% of Ant-Man 2 (63.8M)

 

Day 11-2

36% of Venom (29.2M)

 

Yeah, this is worthy of the Jay-Z gif

 

[Cooper Legion]

15 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

84% of Ant-Man 2 (63.8M)

A clear triumph  

[Cap]

Dark Phoenix - Pets 2 - Thorkyrie AU - Toy Story 4

Thursday Previews

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
	6.3	6.5	Total	%	+ Sold
Dark Phoenix	35	44	962	4.57%	9
Pets 2	1	2	1114	0.17%	1
Thorkyrie AU	6	6	1337	0.49%	0
Toy Story 4	15	17	2434	0.69%	2

• In Comparison, Wednesday Before Release, Tickets Sold:
  
  [86] Pika Pika
  [60] John Wick
  [55] Aladdin
  [14] Rocketman
  [107] Godzilla
  
  

 

Lincoln Square 13
	5.29	6.3	6.5	Total	%	+ Sold	+ Seats
Dark Phoenix	915	1088	1211	2034	59.53%	123	0
Pets 2	11	61	90	981	9.17%	29	384
Thorkyrie AU	--	203	235	2331	10.08%	22	0
Dead Don't	--	8	8	684	1.17%	0	0
Toy Story 4	340	420	441	2034	21.68%	21	0

 

• Aladdin was at 836 sold, Godzilla 1102 sold on Wednesday before Previews.
• So based on that, I could see where the 50-60M weekend range originates from.  I just don't buy it.  LS13 overperformed for Godzilla on Thursday Night, and I see zero reasons why it won't again for Dark Phoenix.  
• What does interest me, Tracking Thread: How frontloaded will the film be?  I could honestly see it going both ways.  I could see Thursday/Friday coming in hot, only to crash on Saturday.  I could also see it pulling a BvS, where it DOES make that 60M this weekend, only to die after Discount Tuesday.  With MIB taking the IMAX screens, either way, it's in for a nasty second week.

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	90	10818	12307	12.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    62

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.9960x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 15 days before release.

2.0510x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 15 days before release.

2.6589x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 15 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-15:

Pika         13 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/75 showings   |     8151/8648 seats left    |  5.75% sold]

Aladdin    43 tickets sold [0 sellouts/70 showings   |     9271/9997 seats left     |  7.26% sold]

KotM        39 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings   |  11056/11616 seats left    |  4.82% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.0378x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 15 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-15:

JW2               92 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |    8764/10113 seats left  | 13.34% sold]

TS4 (JW)        57 tickets sold [1 sellouts/90 showings |    9242/10642 seats left  | 13.16% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

Impressive how well TS4 is holding, especially for a family movie which in theory should be way less presale heavy than all the examples.

 

$ 140-150M is looking really reachable. 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Impressive how well TS4 is holding, especially for a family movie which in theory should be way less presale heavy than all the examples.

 

$ 140-150M is looking really reachable. 

Deadline said last week it was “looking to unseat Incredibles 2 with  $200m”.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Deadline said last week it was “looking to unseat Incredibles 2 with  $200m”.

wrong, they said that it could challenge, if you actually read the arcticle, and also we really dont know where the movie could open, dont forget that the pre sales also didnt suggested a 180 ow for incredibles, so i would say when it comes to these kind of movies, take everything with a grain of salt

[UserHN]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Deadline said last week it was “looking to unseat Incredibles 2 with  $200m”.

I think Deadline is just optimistic with their "could open with $200M" prediction. I'll go with $150M to $180M. But who knows. Deadline is also the first among the Hollywood trades trio to predict $300M+ for EG.

Edited June 6, 2019 by UserHN

[el sid]

MT update:

#1 Aladdin 24%
#2 Rocketman 12.5%
#3 Godzilla 2 11.7%
#4 Pets 2 11.4%
#5 Dark Phoenix 7.2%

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

On 5/30/2019 at 8:45 AM, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

DARK PHOENIX - THURSDAY JUNE 6 

 

IMAX -FAN EVENT

6:00pm - 83/343

IMAX

9:00pm - 52/343

REGULAR 3D

7:00pm - 1/390

10:00pm - 2/390

 

TOY STORY 4 - THURSDAY JUNE 20

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 17/343

9:45pm - 2/343

REGULAR 3D

6:30pm - 3/390

9:15pm - 0/390

WEEKLY UPDATE - Cineplex Scotiabank Montreal

 

DARK PHOENIX - THURSDAY JUNE 6 

 

IMAX -FAN EVENT

6:00pm - 142/343

IMAX

9:00pm - 119/343

REGULAR 3D

7:00pm - 69/390

10:00pm - 7/390

 

TOY STORY 4 - THURSDAY JUNE 20

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 32/343

9:45pm - 6/343

REGULAR 3D

6:30pm - 19/390

9:15pm - 2/390

[Tinalera]

Silvercity london june 6

 

Dark Phoenix 

IMAX fan event
615 76/323 ( +13)
10pm. 17/323 (+8)

 

Westmount 

VIP
615 23/63  (+2)
1000 10/63 (+0)

Secret life of pets 2

Silvercity london 
Recliner 3d
715 30/111(+13)
930 11/111 (+5)

Westmount

615 12/59(+3)
930 6/59(+6)

 

[cdsacken]

People pissy about the 200m prediction for TS4?

 

It broke the pre-sale record I2 set which opened to 187.

 

It's been tracking ahead of FK which had bad critical reviews and bad WOM (49% audience score ouch!)

 

175 is easy to see. More if it's got rave reviews and amazing WOM.

Edited June 6, 2019 by cdsacken

[Tinalera]

Some general observations:

 

Godzilla..wow. Already falling behind aladdin on the ticket sites, what the heck happened? Maybe theres wom of mouth of this weekend but holy cow its weird watching this occur.

 

Phoenix and Pets. Two different demographic movies neither one seeming to make a lot of movement. Whatever the reasons a rough weekend.

 

Toy Story4. Hearing buzz up here. People talking about it, they are looking forward to it. People i talk believe its the swan song and last time hearing hanks, allen ( and the late don rickles voice years after he passed away). For one friend he describes it for him as "end of an era".

 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, john2000 said:

wrong, they said that it could challenge, if you actually read the arcticle, and also we really dont know where the movie could open, dont forget that the pre sales also didnt suggested a 180 ow for incredibles, so i would say when it comes to these kind of movies, take everything with a grain of salt

Lol, not wrong. 

 

The headline literally says what I quoted.

 

That comment was also their tweet to accompany the article. 

 

https://deadline.com/2019/05/toy-story-4-opening-weekend-box-office-projection-fandango-atom-presale-records-1202624173/

 

All I said was Deadline said it “was looking to unseat Incredibles”. And they did. 

Edited June 6, 2019 by Krissykins

[RamblinRed]

41 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Some general observations:

 

Godzilla..wow. Already falling behind aladdin on the ticket sites, what the heck happened? Maybe theres wom of mouth of this weekend but holy cow its weird watching this occur.

 

Phoenix and Pets. Two different demographic movies neither one seeming to make a lot of movement. Whatever the reasons a rough weekend.

 

Toy Story4. Hearing buzz up here. People talking about it, they are looking forward to it. People i talk believe its the swan song and last time hearing hanks, allen ( and the late don rickles voice years after he passed away). For one friend he describes it for him as "end of an era".

 

Zilla has basically been behind Aladdin since last Friday. Nothing surprising there. I just don't think it was well received outside of its core fanbase, which isn't that huge.

 

Unless the walk-ups are really good it looks like both SLOP2 and DP could underperform.

 

 

[Rebeccas]

Godzilla's true Friday only beat Aladdin by a hair. It literally has not even been close since then lol.

[TimmyRiggins]

26 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Zilla has basically been behind Aladdin since last Friday. Nothing surprising there. I just don't think it was well received outside of its core fanbase, which isn't that huge.

 

Unless the walk-ups are really good it looks like both SLOP2 and DP could underperform.

 

 

The exits for Godzilla are great, there's just not enough people that showed up. Happens.

[fabiopazzo2]

@DeeCee @baumer

hi, unlock @Charlie Jatinder Pls

[MovieMan89]

4 hours ago, UserHN said:

I think Deadline is just optimistic with their "could open with $200M" prediction. I'll go with $150M to $180M. But who knows. Deadline is also the first among the Hollywood trades trio to predict $300M+ for EG.

At this rate we're looking at basically a full month of everything underperforming by the time TS4 opens (maybe even possible no 50m grosser since MD weekend). For summer, that kind of drought is an eternity. 200m is starting to seem more and more believable for TS4. 

Edited June 6, 2019 by MovieMan89

[Eric Prime]

3 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

@DeeCee @baumer

hi, unlock @Charlie Jatinder Pls

He's still got finals dude