The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

A 30M Tuesday is only 3M below Endgame... that isn’t happening.

 

Hold them horses there cowboy....

 

Summer days aren’t like non-summer days. Incredibles 2 had a $27.5 million Tuesday. If TLK opens over $200m, I can definitely see a $30m Tuesday.

[Inceptionzq]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Hold them horses there cowboy....

 

Summer days aren’t like non-summer days. Incredibles 2 had a $27.5 million Tuesday. If TLK opens over $200m, I can definitely see a $30m Tuesday.

Yeah I jumped the gun a little with that response 😂. But I think my point is still valid because he said 180+

[Eric Prime]

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	4,783	19,516	24.51%

 

Total Showings Sold Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 326

Total Seats Sold Today: 731

 

That's about a 57.5% jump from yesterday. From a raw numbers perspective, starting from a really high 464, that seems like a fantastic jump. Again, I have no comps, but 731 tickets is still 731 tickets.

[Eric Prime]

Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	111	5,060	2.19%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 288

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

0.076x of The Lion King 16 days before release (The Lion King had 24 days of presales, while Hobbs & Shaw has 34 days of presales)

 

T-16:

Lion King: 102 tickets sold

 

Finally, a decent number that's worth sharing. And we even have a comp...kind of. Obviously, these two aren't a perfect match, but what are you gonna do?

[Cap]

Quick note: I have all the data for Empire 25, Lincoln Square, and Cinemagic for Tuesday. Don’t know when I will get it up (maybe tomorrow, maybe tonight). But I do have it for the records. 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Quick note: I have all the data for Empire 25, Lincoln Square, and Cinemagic for Tuesday. Don’t know when I will get it up (maybe tomorrow, maybe tonight). But I do have it for the records. 

Awesome get it out. I looked at Empire 25 previews again. 3 peak time Imax/Dolby shows are doing great(Imax is at 10PM). I see some momentum in 2d/3d with 3d having the show with most tickets sold !!!!

 

Only weird thing it having fewer 2d/3d shows from friday onwards. normally it should have been other way around.

 

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25

Dolby: 209(208))/225 (6PM), 200(195(189(189(179))))/225 (9PM), 78(74(68(45)))/225 (12AM)
Imax - 238(233(204(196(166))))/303 (10PM)
3D: 102(69(52))/309 (A14 630PM), 60(44(32))/309 (A9 7PM), 47(23(23))/262 (A17 730PM), 41(29(17))/158 (A6 8PM), 17(6(4))/309 (A14 930PM), 4(2(2))/309 (A9 10PM), 18(12(12))/262 (A17 1030PM), 5(5(4))/158 (A6 11PM), 9(8(8))/126(A3 1130PM)
2D: 70(36(34(26)))/377(A13 6PM), 8(8(8(8)))/99(A16 610PM), 26(19(12(7)))/99(A22 620PM), 37(26(26))/99(A24 640PM), 22(12(12))/121(A15 650PM), 32(30(22))/146(A7 710PM), 59(55(46))/145(A25 720PM)  70(46(44))/144(A20 740PM),16(14(14))/142(A19 750PM), 33(28(26))/134(A5 810PM), 18(16(15))/126(A3 820PM), 28(20(18))/262(A12 830PM), 9(7(7))/122(A10 840PM), 9(9(8))/111(A21 850PM), 37(34(34))/99(A16 910PM), 11(6(3))/377(A13 915PM),11(10(10))/99(A22 920PM), 9(9)/99(A24 940PM), 7(2)/121(A15 950PM), 8(4)/146(A7 1010PM), 7(7)/145 (A25 1020PM), 12(10)/144(A20 1040PM), 8(8)/142(A19 1050PM), 10(6)/134 (A5 1110PM),  19(19)/262(A12 1120PM), 5(2)/122 (A10 1140PM), 5(4)/121(A21 1150PM)

 

 

[Cap]

Never mind. 

Edited July 17, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	263	18651	25481	6830	26.80%

 

Total Showings Added Today:         23 (5 non-reserved seating)

Total Seats Added Today:           1258

Total Seats Sold Today:                 884

 

Unadjusted Comps

3.8263x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 2 days before release.

3.5426x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 2 days before release.

4.1723x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 2 days before release.

1.8064x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 2 days before release.

 

T-2:

Pika      300 seats sold [0 sellouts/101 shows |   7619/9404 seats    | 1785 seats sold |  18.98% sold]

Aladdin 298 seats sold [0 sellouts/115 shows | 11970/13896 seats  | 1926 seats sold |  13.86% sold]

KotM     207 seats sold [0 sellouts/120 shows | 13471/15108 seats  | 1637 seats sold | 10.84% sold]

TS4       538 seats sold [0 sellouts/147 shows | 12719/16500 seats  | 3781 seats sold | 22.92% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.8049x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 2 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-2:

JW2         551 seats sold [0 sellouts/145 shows | 10171/13595 seats | 3424 seats sold | 25.19% sold]

TLK (JW)  791 seats sold   [1 sellout/263 shows | 16015/22195 seats | 6180 seats sold | 27.84% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

Another fantastic day in Sacto.  Starting to see seats being sold in the 9pm to 10pm window as well.

 

However, and it's kinda funny to say "however" to a film that nearly sold 900 tickets in a market, it is falling a bit off that 1.8x TS4 pace.  

 

The "target" today was 968.  It "only" did 884.  That's 84 tickets off, or 8.7%.  Now there were a shit ton of showtimes added today, including in the best family viewing hours.  So it might hit target tomorrow.  But if I had to guess, I don't think this is gonna quite match 1.8x TS4.  1.75x TS4 (21m) might be in more reach, however.

 

The other note is. DAMN were there a shit ton of shows added today.  I think we're almost at the final slate, as a lot of places have their full lineups up.  But there are still a couple of places that have room to juggle, so it might go up a bit more over the last two days.  Especially if they cancel showings for other films.

 

Either way, fantastic day locally.  

 

Lots and lots of weekend showings as well.  But I'll save all of that for another post.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

And now for less than ideal comps for TLK, two days out:

 

CM sold   802 tickets two days out.

EG sold  1182 tickets two days out.

Solo sold 236 tickets two days out (versus an adj 791 tickets sold).

DP2 sold 729 tickets two days out (versus an adj 791 tickets sold).

IW sold    691 tickets two days out (versus an adj 791 tickets sold).

 

And for what they (probably aren't) worth:

 

0.9874x Captain Marvel   (20.44m)

0.3076x Endgame            (18.46m)

1.3730x Solo  (adj)           (19.36m)

1.2132x Deadpool 2 (adj) (22.57m)

0.5724x Infinity War (adj) (22.32m)

 

Last check two days ago:

On 7/15/2019 at 12:34 AM, Porthos said:

 

In case folks care:

 

CM sold  402 tickets four days out.

EG sold   457 tickets four days out.

Solo sold 151 tickets four days out (versus an adj 433 tickets sold).

DP2 sold 264 tickets four days out (versus an adj 433 tickets sold).

IW sold    305 tickets four days out (versus an adj 433 tickets sold).

 

And the other comps, again for what they're worth:

0.9211x Captain Marvel   [19.07m] 

0.2516x Endgame            [15.09m] 

1.1512x Solo (adj)            [16.24m] 

1.1735x Deadpool 2 (adj) [21.83m] 

0.4906x Infinity War (adj) [19.13m] 

All comps, including DP2, went up slightly.  Probably getting to the point where kids tickets start to play a factor, presuming I am right about the ATP of TLK being lower than all of the above movies.  Still, interesting to see that two of the comps have 'caught up' with (and in fact passed) TS4 and another one isn't far behind.

 

Probably will make one last check for shits-and-giggles after final report.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Taruseth]

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

And now for less than ideal comps for TLK, two days out:

 

CM sold   802 tickets two days out.

EG sold  1182 tickets two days out.

Solo sold 236 tickets two days out (versus an adj 791 tickets sold).

DP2 sold 729 tickets two days out (versus an adj 791 tickets sold).

IW sold    691 tickets two days out (versus an adj 791 tickets sold).

 

And for what they (probably aren't) worth:

 

0.9874x Captain Marvel   (20.44m)

0.3076x Endgame            (18.46m)

1.3730x Solo  (adj)           (19.36m)

1.2132x Deadpool 2 (adj) (22.57m)

0.5724x Infinity War (adj) (22.32m)

 

Last check two days ago:

All comps, including DP2, went up slightly.  Probably getting to the point where kids tickets start to play a factor, presuming I am right about the ATP of TLK being lower than all of the above movies.  Still, interesting to see that two of the comps have 'caught up' with (and in fact passed) TS4 and another one isn't far behind.

 

Probably will make one last check for shits-and-giggles after final report.

Kids ticket really must change quite something considering these are quite similar to the kid-movies-comps.

 

This almost looks more positive than the other comps but fear kids tickets will make these rather useless as you pointed out.

 

 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

The good news is while kids tickets will be a plenty, theres a sizable audience here that:

 

A. Wont have kids, at least in comparison to TS4

B. Are willing to pay for PLF

 

Two advantages i can possibly see compared to the more family films

Edited July 17, 2019 by The Fast and the Furiosa

[RamblinRed]

10 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Yeah I jumped the gun a little with that response 😂. But I think my point is still valid because he said 180+

I'll stick by my prediction. If it does over 21M on Monday I think it does 30+ on Tuesday. (Basically if it has a 50M+ Sunday).

 

FFH did a 39.5% incr on its 2nd Tuesday (it opened on a Tues) while TS4 did 45%+. I think TLK will fall in the middle. 

Heck based on the jumps yesterday that might be conservative. We are in the height of summer and Tuesday jumps are going to be larger.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2019 by RamblinRed

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

It looks more and more like the data is pointing to a $20m-$22m Thursday.

[cdsacken]

Seriously I really appreciate the wide variety of data from everyone. I agree maybe 18-24 but likely 20-22.

[RamblinRed]

Anything over 20M and i'd be absolutely thrilled. 

[Inceptionzq]

 https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-lion-king-targets-royal-150m-us-bow-1224795

 

“If prerelease tracking is any indication, the Disney tentpole will easily earn $150 million or more in its North American debut. Globally, it should finish the weekend with a total $400 million to $450 million after opening to $54 million in China last weekend.”

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

 https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-lion-king-targets-royal-150m-us-bow-1224795

 

“If prerelease tracking is any indication, the Disney tentpole will easily earn $150 million or more in its North American debut. Globally, it should finish the weekend with a total $400 million to $450 million after opening to $54 million in China last weekend.”

as of now 150 doenst seem likely at all, more like 170-210

[UserHN]

22 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

 https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-lion-king-targets-royal-150m-us-bow-1224795

 

“If prerelease tracking is any indication, the Disney tentpole will easily earn $150 million or more in its North American debut. Globally, it should finish the weekend with a total $400 million to $450 million after opening to $54 million in China last weekend.”

Deadline and THR going conservative.

[FlashMaster659]

23 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 155/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 182/203

9:00 PM - 171/203

12:00 AM - 102/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 37/78

6:30 PM - 21/63

7:00 PM - 35/78

8:45 PM - 27/60

9:15 PM - 9/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 14/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 13/55

7:30 PM - 9/167

8:00 PM - 8/114

9:00 PM - 4/79*

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 40/63

8:00 PM - 40/61

8:30 PM - 44/63

10:45 PM - 36/63

11:15 PM - 30/61

11:45 PM - 16/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 23/44

6:15 PM - 34/55

6:30 PM - 132/217

6:45 PM (1) - 20/44

6:45 PM (2) NEW - ?/?*

7:00 PM - 52/79

7:15 PM - 24/44

7:45 PM - 26/44

8:00 PM - 22/45

8:15 PM - 60/167

8:30 PM (1) - 21/45

8:30 PM (2) - 65/114

8:45 PM - 17/44

9:00 PM - 22/49

9:15 PM - 12/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 7/55

9:45 PM - 17/217

10:00 PM (1) - 15/48

10:00 PM (2) NEW - 0/44

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 14/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 18/167

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1619(+92)/4089 (39.6%)

 

1.5188x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 two days before previews

 

*9:00 PM RealD 3D became a glitched sell-out so I can't add anymore seats to that show's total until it's fixed. The new 6:45 PM 2D show is glitched as well so I have no idea how that one is doing.

 

Terrible hold from yesterday

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 156/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 178/203

9:00 PM - 175/203

12:00 AM - 108/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 39/78

6:30 PM - 21/63

7:00 PM - 42/78

8:45 PM - 30/60

9:15 PM - 13/78

9:45 PM - 10/63

10:15 PM - 16/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 15/55

7:30 PM - 9/167

8:00 PM - 10/114

9:00 PM - 4/79*

10:30 PM - 5/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 41/63

8:00 PM - 44/61

8:30 PM - 44/63

10:45 PM - 40/63

11:15 PM - 37/61

11:45 PM - 20/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 25/44

6:15 PM - 34/55

6:30 PM - 158/217

6:45 PM (1) - 22/44

6:45 PM (2) NEW - ?/?*

7:00 PM - 56/79

7:15 PM - 14/44

7:45 PM - 26/44

8:00 PM - 24/45

8:15 PM - 97/167

8:30 PM (1) - 23/45

8:30 PM (2) - 69/114

8:45 PM - 22/44

9:00 PM - 27/49

9:15 PM - 15/44

9:30 PM (1) - 13/55

9:30 PM (2) - 6/55

9:45 PM - 30/217

10:00 PM (1) - 15/48

10:00 PM (2) NEW - 2/44

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 18/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 18/167

11:45 PM - 2/114

 

Total

 

1738(+119)/4089 (42.5%)

 

1.4459x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 one day before previews

 

*9:00 PM RealD 3D became a glitched sell-out so I can't add anymore seats to that show's total until it's fixed.

Edited July 17, 2019 by FlashMaster659