The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Once upon is doing great at AMC Empire 25. Almost sold out AMC prime shows at late matinee and evening while is not doing badly late at night as well. Even some 2D shows have sold well. I am thinking 8m previews will happen.

 

Spoiler

Previews Once Hollywood

AMC Empire 25

Prime - 160/180 (A18 4PM), 168/180 (A18 745PM), 65/180 (A18 1130PM) Total 393/540
2D -  57/158(A6 515PM), 176/309 (A9 630PM), 12/146(A7 815PM),62/158(A6 9PM), 15/309 (A9 1015PM),7/144 (A20 1045PM)  Total 329/1124

Overall:- 722/1664 (44.4%)

 

Edit: I looked at other major theaters and its looking really good in NYC/SF/LA. Arclight hollywood has 2 70mm sellouts and several other near sellouts. Previews could be even higher as shows are starting as early as 4PM.

 

 

Edited July 24, 2019 by keysersoze123

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Once upon is doing great at AMC Empire 25. Almost sold out AMC prime shows at late matinee and evening while is not doing badly late at night as well. Even some 2D shows have sold well. I am thinking 5m previews will happen.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Previews Once Hollywood

AMC Empire 25

Prime - 160/180 (A18 4PM), 168/180 (A18 745PM), 65/180 (A18 1130PM) Total 393/540
2D -  57/158(A6 515PM), 176/309 (A9 630PM), 12/146(A7 815PM),62/158(A6 9PM), 15/309 (A9 1015PM),7/144 (A20 1045PM)  Total 329/1124

Overall:- 722/1664 (44.4%)

 

I will be contributing to said previews. I plan on seeing this on Thursday.

[PenguinHyphy]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Once upon is doing great at AMC Empire 25. Almost sold out AMC prime shows at late matinee and evening while is not doing badly late at night as well. Even some 2D shows have sold well. I am thinking 5m previews will happen.

 

  Hide contents

Previews Once Hollywood

AMC Empire 25

Prime - 160/180 (A18 4PM), 168/180 (A18 745PM), 65/180 (A18 1130PM) Total 393/540
2D -  57/158(A6 515PM), 176/309 (A9 630PM), 12/146(A7 815PM),62/158(A6 9PM), 15/309 (A9 1015PM),7/144 (A20 1045PM)  Total 329/1124

Overall:- 722/1664 (44.4%)

 

It was always going to perform well enough in Los Angeles and New York, so using any of those two to represent national numbers is pretty faulty.   

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, PenguinHyphy said:

It was always going to perform well enough in Los Angeles and New York, so using any of those two to represent national numbers is pretty faulty.   

These markets are huge. Doing well there guarantees strong numbers overall. I am planning to look at other major cities as well.

[PenguinHyphy]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

These markets are huge. Doing well there guarantees strong numbers overall. I am planning to look at other major cities as well.

Booksmart performed extremely well in those two places, but its numbers were brought down by its performances elsewhere, especially in the south, so that is not always the truth honestly.  

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Booksmart performed extremely well in those two places, but its numbers were brought down by its performances elsewhere, especially in the south, so that is not always the truth honestly.  

you are comparing an indie movie released on Endgame 2nd weekend to a QT movie starring Leo, Pitt and Robbie with strong reviews. This has order of magnitude greater number of shows for previews compared to OD of Booksmart.

 

Anyway I am giving my perception based on my anecdotal tracking. You are free to have your opinion.

[Eric Furiosa]

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	918	7,066	12.99%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 12

Total Seats Added Today: 1,601

Total Seats Sold Today: 267

 

Adjusted Comps

9.52x of Crawl 2 days before release

11.31x of Stuber 2 days before release

0.18x of The Lion King 2 days before release

 

T-2

Crawl: 32 tickets sold that day (98 tickets sold total)

Once Upon: 223 tickets sold that day (874 tickets sold total)

 

Stuber: 6 tickets sold that day (75 tickets sold total)

Once Upon: 239 tickets sold that day (890 tickets sold total)

 

Lion King: 731 tickets sold that day (4,783 tickets sold total)

Once Upon: 202 tickets sold that day (853 tickets sold total)

 

Now we're in a unique position. With such huge gains, the range has gone up considerably. Instead of 2.9M to 7.7M, we're now at 4.15M to 9.5M.

 

Now before people start going crazy and predict breakout, it's important to note that none of these comps work. Crawl and Stuber had low presales, while Lion King is a completely different audience. However, the fact that this has reached the 4M mark on the low end, and it has gained a decent amount of tickets seems like a very good sign. Am I predicting 4M+ previews right now? No. Do I expect the lower end of the range to come down tomorrow and Thursday? Probably. But I am more confident in 3M+ previews than I was yesterday.

[cdsacken]

Let's say previews hit 4m how likely is a preview multiplier of 10x? Hoping for 40m. 

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Let's say previews hit 4m how likely is a preview multiplier of 10x? Hoping for 40m. 

I would say pretty likely, and with 4M it could get 44M+. This isn’t a film that people will rush out to see, except for QT fans maybe. And if audiences generally agree with what critics say, then FSS should look good.
 

I’ve been looking at Rocketman as a comparison, though it’s not the perfect one. Heck, maybe this just won’t be a good comparison. Nevertheless, Rocketman’s previews started at 7, and OUATIH’s is starting at 4. If we include the Fandango preview numbers from 2 weeks prior to release, Rocketman scored 2.3M with an IM of 11.2. So, around 11x is what I’ve been thinking for the IM.

[Eric Furiosa]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Let's say previews hit 4m how likely is a preview multiplier of 10x? Hoping for 40m. 

I would say yes.

 

If Once Upon follows Men in Black International (had 4PM previews), it would be at about 38.8M. If it follows Equalizer 2 (also 4PM previews, near identical calendar placement), that would mean 46.5M. It will likely have significantly better WOM than Men in Black, so that seems more like a low-end deal.

[narniadis]

This is the one film so far this summer (non-indie) that utilizing NYC and LA I fear will skew things. Cannot see previews going over 5m at best and still not sold on a 40m weekend. Would love to see it, but fan rush factor is part of the QT thing at this point. Great reviews and hopefully WOM will shift some of that of course. Would love to see it top IB overall. 

[el sid]

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, sold tickets for the previews on Thursday and for Friday,
counted today ca. at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 154 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 197 (total tickets sold for Friday, 6 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 73 / 230 (9 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 383 / 257 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 162 / 106 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 111 / 68 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 63 / 64 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 106 / 81 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 471 / 327 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 235 / 196 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 852 (22 showtimes) / 448 (12 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till Wednesday for Thursday: 2.610 and for Friday: 1.974.

Stuber had on Wednesday 312 / 285 sold tickets (with showtimes in 9 theaters) and Crawl 261 / 209 (with showtimes in 10 theaters). The Lion King had 9.101 / 9.705 at that time which means Once Upon a Time is at 29% and 20% of it. That looks a bit frontloaded but doesn't rule out an OW close to 40M.

 

Edited July 24, 2019 by el sid

[cdsacken]

Nice! So let's hope for 4+

[JB33]

Would Mission: Impossible - Fallout be a good comp? Same calendar placement last year.

[RamblinRed]

I would definitely expect OUaTiH to over perform in both LA and NY given the subject matter and actors involved.

But the rise in tickets is nice to see regardless.

 

How well the movie does overall will be affected by how it plays outside the 2 coasts.

 

[TalismanRing]

On 7/23/2019 at 2:26 PM, TalismanRing said:

My local added 3 preview shows last night

OUATIH (Tues 2:15pm)

 

4:15    21/255
7:50    79/255
8:30    7/205
9:30    10/246
10:25    0/218

117/1179 = 9.82%

 

This looks strong but I have no good comps for this but FWIW

 

Aladdin (TUES 12pm)  - 98/1242 =7.89%

TS4 (TUES: 4pm)  -  165/2049 = 8.05%

X-Men 6 (TUES 4pm)  103/942 = 10.93%

TLK (TUES 4:30pm) 444/3228 = 13.75%

Godz2: (WED 7:45pm) 135/ 1915 = 7.04%

SHAZAM  (WED After.)   129 / 2229 = 5.78%

OUATIH (WED 4pm)

 

4:15    24/255
7:50    99/255
8:30    14/205
9:30    14/246
10:25    8/218

159/1179 = 13.48%

 

 

TS4 (WEd 4:30pm)  233/2049 = 11.37%

X-Men 6 (WED 3:15pm) 209/942 = 22.19%

TLK (Wed 7PM) 557/3228 = 17.26% 

 

Edited July 24, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

OUATIH Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

AMC Westminster Promenade 24: 

2D: 

4 PM – 42/158(+6)

4:30 PM – 22/94(+7)

7:45 PM – 106/158(+12)

8:15 PM – 48/94(+11)

11:20 PM – 11/158(+1)

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

2D: 

4 PM – 14/159

5 PM – 33/159(+6)

6:15 PM – 41/85(+8)

7:45 PM – 45/159(+15)

8:45 PM – 19/159(+3)

9:45 PM – 16/85(+4)

Total from 8 theaters (34 showings): 711(+154)/4045(+300) (17.8%)

I don’t know what it did yesterday, but I think it was an increase. It did over two-thirds of what it did over those three days that I posted yesterday. I’m pretty sure that’s good.

I forgot to mention that yesterday TLK comp pointed towards a 3.4M Thursday Night. Today it is 3.75M. Unsurprisingly, that leads me to believe it isn’t a good comp. So, don’t take it seriously.

 

OUATIH Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

2D:

4 PM – 51/158(+9)

4:30 PM – 24/94(+2)

7:45 PM – 118/158(+12)

8:15 PM – 55/94(+7)

11:20 PM – 11/158

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

2D:

4 PM – 22/159(+8)

5 PM – 38/159(+5)

6:15 PM – 49/85(+8)

7:45 PM – 78/159(+33)

8:45 PM – 36/159(+17)

9:45 PM – 16/85

Total from 8 theaters (35 showings): 930(+219)/4090(+45) (22.7%)

TLK comp jumps up to 4.2M.

[XXR vs XXR]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking 8m previews will happen

 

Half that.

[cdsacken]

It's not doing 8 million. 5 million of amazing.

 

I will go 3.5-5m, 4m is my guess for now.

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Half that.

I just liked this post, mostly reflexively from other reports.  But it inspired me to do a super quick-and-dirty check of Sacto.

 

...

 

Hmmmm....    

 

...

 

Lemme get back to this thread in a bit, as I'm still in the middle of it.

 

But...  Hmmmm....