The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

The Sunday hold will be interesting. Two Towers (2002) and Hobbit: DOS (2013) both had sub-20% drops on that Sunday (December 22) and had already been out for more than a weekend.

 

Likewise, the second weekend for TROS will be equally interesting. Both of those movies had very small drops. 

 

If WOM is decent, the drops SHOULD be very very small for a week at least (except Christmas Eve, BUT TFA only dropped 29% for Christmas eve).

Since they opened on Wednesdays it makes the comparisons harder, but you are right. Once the previews are removed (which will of course inflate the drop%) it should hold well in weekend 2. Love that 10 day stretch it will have. 

[jedijake]

9 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Since they opened on Wednesdays it makes the comparisons harder, but you are right. Once the previews are removed (which will of course inflate the drop%) it should hold well in weekend 2. Love that 10 day stretch it will have. 

Correct me if I am wrong, but I'd think that TROS could potentially hold better than TT or DOS since it will be fresher?

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but I'd think that TROS could potentially hold better than TT or DOS since it will be fresher?

Sadly not. I was off in my calendar thinking the really strong hold for Smaug on the 27-29th (-8%) was its 3rd weekend. The comparison would be only somewhat more accurate if you looked at the big drop it had on the 20-22nd (-57%). 

TROS is going to only be in weekend 2 and it will face the lack of previews inflating the weekend. It will be fortunate to maintain a -45 to -50% drop. If you look at TFA, its weekend 2 hold was just barely under -40% and that was solely due to Christmas falling on the Friday. Its 2 days earlier for ROS which wont benefit the 2nd weekend at all. 

Its going to make crazy money during the weekdays, but it will still drop a ton on weekend. 

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	256	16091	53820	37729	29.90%

 

Total Seats Added Today: 220

Total Seats Sold Today: 224

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
Joker	191.08		8421		16091		25.41m
Frozen 2	249.09		6460		16091		21.17m

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	256	16091	53820	37729	29.90%

 

Total Seats Added Today: 220

Total Seats Sold Today: 224

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
Joker	191.08		8421		16091		25.41m
Frozen 2	249.09		6460		16091		21.17m

 

 

Joker was super strong in LA area(and NYC) and was weak in smaller cities, south of the country etc. So this comparison is going to be warped. Frozen also did well in some areas and was very weak elsewhere.

[jedijake]

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Sadly not. I was off in my calendar thinking the really strong hold for Smaug on the 27-29th (-8%) was its 3rd weekend. The comparison would be only somewhat more accurate if you looked at the big drop it had on the 20-22nd (-57%). 

TROS is going to only be in weekend 2 and it will face the lack of previews inflating the weekend. It will be fortunate to maintain a -45 to -50% drop. If you look at TFA, its weekend 2 hold was just barely under -40% and that was solely due to Christmas falling on the Friday. Its 2 days earlier for ROS which wont benefit the 2nd weekend at all. 

Its going to make crazy money during the weekdays, but it will still drop a ton on weekend. 

A huge drop in its second weekend will be harmful to its overall domestic run, no?

 

It will probably have made around 84-85% of its total domestic run by Sunday, January 5.

12/20-12/22: $190 million

12/23-12/26: $120 million

12/27-12/29: $90 million

12/30-1/2: $60 million

1/3-1/5: $45 million

That's $505 million. If it's 

84%, the total will be $601 million

84.5%: $598 million

85%: $594 million.

 

The holds will have to be extraordinarily strong through the holiday and afterward for it to get close to TLJ's domestic run under these circumstances.

[narniadis]

12 minutes ago, jedijake said:

A huge drop in its second weekend will be harmful to its overall domestic run, no?

 

It will probably have made around 84-85% of its total domestic run by Sunday, January 5.

12/20-12/22: $190 million

12/23-12/26: $120 million

12/27-12/29: $90 million

12/30-1/2: $60 million

1/3-1/5: $45 million

That's $505 million. If it's 

84%, the total will be $601 million

84.5%: $598 million

85%: $594 million.

 

The holds will have to be extraordinarily strong through the holiday and afterward for it to get close to TLJ's domestic run under these circumstances.

Yup your estimates are a decent way of looking at it. A 3.2x from 190 is 608m which means it recovered some TLJ leg wise but not enough to beat it in gross. 

We ultimately wont know until we see how it plays out and a lot of that is hinged on the opening, but I would love to see weekend 2 get close to 100m. 

[jedijake]

10 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yup your estimates are a decent way of looking at it. A 3.2x from 190 is 608m which means it recovered some TLJ leg wise but not enough to beat it in gross. 

We ultimately wont know until we see how it plays out and a lot of that is hinged on the opening, but I would love to see weekend 2 get close to 100m. 

But is a non-holiday to holiday drop (like Hobbit 2 and TT) an equal comparison to the holdiay-holiday drop (that TROS will experience?)

 

I think there are plenty who would argue that TROS should see a smaller drop in its second weekend.

[narniadis]

43 minutes ago, jedijake said:

But is a non-holiday to holiday drop (like Hobbit 2 and TT) an equal comparison to the holdiay-holiday drop (that TROS will experience?)

 

I think there are plenty who would argue that TROS should see a smaller drop in its second weekend.

It is both equal and not equal, hence why I pulled in TFA so you could have same set up for comparison. TLJ in addition to being a word of mouth problem also opened too early for a good comparison. 

RoS is going to hold well, but do to size, previews and the calendar it will not have crazy hold like TT or DOS since its not the same. A movie in weekend 3 behaves very very differently over Christmas than the films in week 1 or 2, it just cannot be helped unless it ends up being a freak of nature ala Titanic or Avatar or Christmas eve falls during the weekend which causes the New Year's weekend to look even better. None of these are applicable to ROS. Not being negative mind you, but trying to show how things play out. 

 

Also for one or more to argue for a much better hold when even TFA couldnt pull it, it shows a lack of willingness to understand or accept the data for what the data is. If any film should have had a magical hold it was TFA. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by narniadis

[filmlover]

Richard Jewell's sales are really pitiful for the weekend around here so far. Thinking a single digits opening is more likely than above it (though it'll make up for it a bit over the holidays).

[Manny G]

$200M is not happening for SW neither is the billion.

[ZackM]

8 minutes ago, Manny G said:

$200M is not happening for SW neither is the billion.

[jedijake]

20 minutes ago, narniadis said:

It is both equal and not equal, hence why I pulled in TFA so you could have same set up for comparison. TLJ in addition to being a word of mouth problem also opened too early for a good comparison. 

RoS is going to hold well, but do to size, previews and the calendar it will not have crazy hold like TT or DOS since its not the same. A movie in weekend 3 behaves very very differently over Christmas than the films in week 1 or 2, it just cannot be helped unless it ends up being a freak of nature ala Titanic or Avatar or Christmas eve falls during the weekend which causes the New Year's weekend to look even better. None of these are applicable to ROS. Not being negative mind you, but trying to show how things play out. 

 

Also for one or more to argue for a much better hold when even TFA couldnt pull it, it shows a lack of willingness to understand or accept the data for what the data is. If any film should have had a magical hold it was TFA. 

I see your point. However, if you look back at the past 15-20 years, every movie that did open in the same weekend or similar weekend dropped VERY little the next weekend. Sure, TROS will be much bigger than them, but when all other films dropped 10%, 15%, maybe 20%, surely TROS can hold on enough to drop less than 40%?

[Lordmandeep]

23 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I see your point. However, if you look back at the past 15-20 years, every movie that did open in the same weekend or similar weekend dropped VERY little the next weekend. Sure, TROS will be much bigger than them, but when all other films dropped 10%, 15%, maybe 20%, surely TROS can hold on enough to drop less than 40%?

 

 

having frontloaded films like SW is unique to X-mas now though... 

[George Parr]

18 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I see your point. However, if you look back at the past 15-20 years, every movie that did open in the same weekend or similar weekend dropped VERY little the next weekend. Sure, TROS will be much bigger than them, but when all other films dropped 10%, 15%, maybe 20%, surely TROS can hold on enough to drop less than 40%?

Are there all that many examples of that though?

 

This particular schedule happened in 2013 and 2002. In 2013 there was one noticeable movie in its second weekend, Anchorman 2, which dropped 25%. In 2002 there was TTT, which dropped 21%, but that one already started on a Wednesday, so its actual drop was lower than it would have been if it had started on Friday. There was also Two Weeks Notice, which was a rom-com, which increased to 15.5m, but that's a completely different range, and a completely different scenario. Everything else was just too small to matter.

 

With movies nowadays being far more frontloaded than they were even back then, and the impact of previews, the drops should be quite a bit larger, especially with that much of a difference in terms of size. For simplicities sake, lets assume 45m previews and 200m OW. A 40% drop from that would give 120m, good enough for third best second weekend all time.

The past drops listed above did not have any previews, or at least none for the OW itself, so that is something you need to take into account. The actual weekend itself would give 155m for the opening. To reach the 120m, you would need a drop of about 22.5% from the 155m weekend. So pretty much the drop TTT had while not actually dropping from a regular OW. That seems rather unlikely to achieve.

 

It's the holidays, and we have zero idea how the movie will be received, so who knows what happens, but a drop of 40% or better would seem rather surprising to me.

[jedijake]

18 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Are there all that many examples of that though?

 

This particular schedule happened in 2013 and 2002. In 2013 there was one noticeable movie in its second weekend, Anchorman 2, which dropped 25%. In 2002 there was TTT, which dropped 21%, but that one already started on a Wednesday, so its actual drop was lower than it would have been if it had started on Friday. There was also Two Weeks Notice, which was a rom-com, which increased to 15.5m, but that's a completely different range, and a completely different scenario. Everything else was just too small to matter.

 

With movies nowadays being far more frontloaded than they were even back then, and the impact of previews, the drops should be quite a bit larger, especially with that much of a difference in terms of size. For simplicities sake, lets assume 45m previews and 200m OW. A 40% drop from that would give 120m, good enough for third best second weekend all time.

The past drops listed above did not have any previews, or at least none for the OW itself, so that is something you need to take into account. The actual weekend itself would give 155m for the opening. To reach the 120m, you would need a drop of about 22.5% from the 155m weekend. So pretty much the drop TTT had while not actually dropping from a regular OW. That seems rather unlikely to achieve.

 

It's the holidays, and we have zero idea how the movie will be received, so who knows what happens, but a drop of 40% or better would seem rather surprising to me.

Opening weekends such as 12/19-12/21 and 12/21-12/23 are close enough to use as comparisons also. But yeah, I see what you are saying about previews. That does change things.

Edited December 10, 2019 by jedijake

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/9/2019 at 3:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1813

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1830

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9667	116	22870	42.27%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 23.46M

Final Maleficent count comp: 27.42M

Final IT 2 count comp: 26.14M

Final Hobbs count comp: 27.32M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 27.99M

Final Lion King count comp: 29.31M

 

Average: 26.94M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1834

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1847

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9828	161	23331	42.12%	9	191

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 461

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 23.85M

Final Maleficent count comp: 27.87M

Final IT 2 count comp: 26.58M

Final Hobbs count comp: 27.78M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 28.48M

Final Lion King count comp: 29.79M

 

Average: 27.39M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

106

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

99

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
365	52	11405	3.20%	9	58

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.65M

Terminator comp: 3.83M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.79M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.57M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.64M

Hobbs comp: 3.89M

Lion King comp: 2.24M

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

122

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

116

1769

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
452	87	11848	3.81%	9	63

 

Showings added: 5

Seats added: 443

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.86M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.85M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.45M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.93M

Hobbs comp: 4.17M

Lion King comp: 2.38M

[TalismanRing]

My local went crazy with adding Jumaji showings though not sure why considering the early sales..  It's now up to 12 showings. This has 150 more seats than TLK for previews and 600 or so more than Frozen and Joker.   Maybe they're trying to get all possible Jumanji business b/4 it sheds screens for SW

 

(I can't post my chart since Google Docs is being funky and it won't cut and paste here)

 

 

Jumanji 2:    72/1864    (4pm)  /  120/3381    (5:45pm)
Black Christmas    22/512    (4pm)  /   24/512    (5:45pm)

 

Tues

TLK:    294/3228 (6pm)  - $9.38M

Joker:  399/3536 (4pm) - $4m

Frozen: 169/ 2724 (4pm) - $6m

Maleficent 2:  42/1154 -  $6.57m

 

Mon:

H&S:  60/1543  - $6.96m

 

 

I don't think any of these are great comps since it should be more walk up heavy than Joker and far less than TLK or  even Frozen.  It's pacing better than H&S show as of Monday (H&S sold 180 tickets by Wed so we;ll see if that holds)  and that did $5.8m in previews,

 

Anyhow, my comps are much higher than everyone elses.  Could be NYC overperforming.

 

 

Edited December 10, 2019 by TalismanRing

[ZackM]

20 hours ago, ZackM said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	10	0	0	2	0
Seats Added	663	22	9	175	8
Seats Sold	236	249	163	229	253
12/9/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	249	27,061	42,796	15,735	36.77%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	11	26	49	71	91

 

 

I'm expecting a huge day tomorrow.  Tuesdays have been really good while I've been tracking and a bunch of showings were added today.  Fingers crossed.

Ok, so it looks like I made a pretty big mistake yesterday.  I lost two of my showings because one of them sold out and one of them pseudo sold out.  So it turns out yesterday was absolutely massive which caused me to miss the fact that my scraper missed two showings, because the ticket sales numbers still looks fine without those two showings and all the added showings covered up what would have been a red flag in lost showings.  I double and triple checked my data to make sure I'm reading this right and I'm certain that I am.  So with that said, here are the correct numbers from yesterday:

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	12	0	0	2	0
Seats Added	831	22	9	175	8
Seats Sold	395	249	163	229	253
12/9/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	251	27,070	42,964	15,894	36.99%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	12	27	51	73	93

Edited December 11, 2019 by ZackM